Fangraphs hates our rotation

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, you guys can do whatever you want.  But I truly believe you guys are nuts if you think your rotation is good enough as is.  There is nothing more dangerous than the arrogance of prior year results.  The good news is Mike Elias isn’t stupid and I highly doubt he doesn’t augment the rotation with an impactful starter.

I don’t know how you draw that out of my post.  You yourself said the O’s rotation “isn’t bad.”   25th place is very bad, and that’s all I’m disputing.  I already said we’d like to upgrade.   Elias himself has said it.  There’s no arrogance about the state of our rotation.  

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Not sure you can say Fangraphs is on the money with the Os ranked 25th, but that the Os rotation isn’t bad. 

I think most rotations are at significant risk with one bad injury too. The Dodgers, ranked 3rd, are relying on Glasnow and Buehler to stay healthy as their #2 and #3. No sure thing, and not great depth there as we saw last year.

But yeah, most of us want to acquire a top 3 SP to upgrade what we have, including our GM. I think we’re middle of the pack though. 

The Dodgers have more minor league SP depth than any organization in baseball.

Your core rotation isn’t bad at face value, but when you account for a normal amount of injuries the lack of depth becomes problematic.  Imagine if Bradish were to go down, you’re looking at a 1-5 of Rodriguez, Means, Kremer, Wells, & Irvin.  That’s unlikely to be a good rotation and I doubt anyone here would say otherwise.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Dodgers have more minor league SP depth than any organization in baseball.

Your core rotation isn’t bad at face value, but when you account for a normal amount of injuries the lack of depth becomes problematic.  Imagine if Bradish were to go down, you’re looking at a 1-5 of Rodriguez, Means, Kremer, Wells, & Irvin.  That’s unlikely to be a good rotation and I doubt anyone here would say otherwise.  

I don’t think the Dodgers want to rely on those guys in 2024 if Glasnow or Buehler get hurt, but I could be wrong. I just know they struggled down the stretch in 2023.

Of course we’d be screwed if we lose Bradish. Most teams will be screwed if they lose someone who put up the season he just did. Acquiring Cease, Luzardo, Valdez, whoever, probably wouldn’t be nearly enough to overcome that loss and allow for a deep playoff run.

But I think you’re failing to appreciate, again, that most of us want to bring one of those guys in.

BTW your insider looks to be suggesting that the Yankees are making a decent push for your boy. God willing this saga ends sooner or later but I think the Os and WS will have a longterm rivalry born out of this prolonged negotiation

[Malike]

Man I wish Seattle would just take Cease. This crossover forum nonsense is getting old. We get it, our rotation sucks and Cease for a kings ransom is the only way we can compete, because he's a true ace. 

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know how you draw that out of my post.  You yourself said the O’s rotation “isn’t bad.”   25th place is very bad, and that’s all I’m disputing.  I already said we’d like to upgrade.   Elias himself has said it.  There’s no arrogance about the state of our rotation.  

Which part of the FG projections do you disagree with?  Is it them projecting your rotation to be 10th in ERA next year?

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I don’t think the Dodgers want to rely on those guys in 2024 if Glasnow or Buehler get hurt, but I could be wrong. I just know they struggled down the stretch in 2023.

Of course we’d be screwed if we lose Bradish. Most teams will be screwed if they lose someone who put up the season he just did. Acquiring Cease, Luzardo, Valdez, whoever, probably wouldn’t be nearly enough to overcome that loss and allow for a deep playoff run.

But I think you’re failing to appreciate, again, that most of us want to bring one of those guys in.

BTW your insider looks to be suggesting that the Yankees are making a decent push for your boy. God willing this saga ends sooner or later but I think the Os and WS will have a longterm rivalry born out of this prolonged negotiation

I have zero beef with this board and am only here because I love talking baseball.  And I know many posters here want to add a legit TOR starter….I just think it’s more important than some realize.  It was just two years ago that the Yankees were second in all of baseball run differential.  They are a team that could take massive strides next year.  The Rays got super unlucky if you look at their Pythagorean.  The Blue Jays are really good team.  The Red Sox are getting better.  The reality is the AL East is the best division in baseball and I really don’t think the Orioles can afford to rest on their laurels.  You guys obviously have incredible positional depth, but the pitching situation is worrisome from an outsider’s perspective.  I just don’t view adding a SP as a nice to have but rather a must do.  Again just my opinion and one that has nothing to do with the White Sox or Dylan Cease.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, Malike said:

Man I wish Seattle would just take Cease. This crossover forum nonsense is getting old. We get it, our rotation sucks and Cease for a kings ransom is the only way we can compete, because he's a true ace. 

Plenty of ways to improve your rotation that don’t involve Dylan Cease.  But it’s weird these message boards need to become safe spaces for their respective fan bases.  And that’s an equal dig to this board as it is my own.  I’ve enjoyed Frobby & Sports Guy sharing their opinions on Soxtalk even if it riled a bunch of my brethren up.  Isn’t having a difference of opinion the fun in all of this?

[ThisIsBirdland]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have zero beef with this board and am only here because I love talking baseball.  And I know many posters here want to add a legit TOR starter….I just think it’s more important than some realize.  It was just two years ago that the Yankees were second in all of baseball run differential.  They are a team that could take massive strides next year.  The Rays got super unlucky if you look at their Pythagorean.  The Blue Jays are really good team.  The Red Sox are getting better.  The reality is the AL East is the best division in baseball and I really don’t think the Orioles can afford to rest on their laurels.  You guys obviously have incredible positional depth, but the pitching situation is worrisome from an outsider’s perspective.  I just don’t view adding a SP as a nice to have but rather a must do.  Again just my opinion and one that has nothing to do with the White Sox or Dylan Cease.

Rivalries are fun, but we’ve both seen how heated some of our fans have become over this. Pretty amusing IMO.

I think we’re mostly in agreement except that the O’s just philosophically might be more interested in the 5-10 year window and never going “all in” on a 1-2 year investment. This might be from a lack of balls as some fans have claimed. But it’s probably just the result of our ownership, market, and the economics.

We’re likely to follow the Rays model, probably because we can’t afford to unload our best prospects the way the Yankees or Dodgers can. We won’t know if that’s the right approach though until that 5-10 year window closes and we see whether there are any titles or not. The Rays obviously haven’t won one despite their consistent success.  

[dystopia]

20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which part of the FG projections do you disagree with?  Is it them projecting your rotation to be 10th in ERA next year?

The issue was ranking them 25th best.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Plenty of ways to improve your rotation that don’t involve Dylan Cease.  But it’s weird these message boards need to become safe spaces for their respective fan bases.  And that’s an equal dig to this board as it is my own.  I’ve enjoyed Frobby & Sports Guy sharing their opinions on Soxtalk even if it riled a bunch of my brethren up.  Isn’t having a difference of opinion the fun in all of this?

It doesn't need to be a safe space, we aren't children here. The fact that fans have been making up all of these trade scenarios on both boards for hundreds of pages of nothing is silly. I've always been meh on Cease for what he'd likely cost and his startling regression in stuff in 2023. I'd much rather deal with Miami or Seattle for younger pitchers who have more control. 

You aren't scaring anyone when you say that everyone in the East has better pitching than we do, you have no idea how our pitching is going to be next year unless you are expecting everyone to regress, they are young pitchers with a lot of upside, not grizzled vets like Gibson where you know what you'll get every year.  No team has 5 aces, not one.

I'm sure they'll add a starter and I'm sure that this team will be fine because the guy running it is smarter than all of us when it comes to this stuff.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, dystopia said:

The issue was ranking them 25th best.

But I’m asking which player projections do you guys disagree with?  The 25th ranking is simply the total fWAR of your various player outlooks.  They do have your rotation 10th in ERA, so not radically different from this year.

[Satyr3206]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But I’m asking which player projections do you guys disagree with?  The 25th ranking is simply the total fWAR of your various player outlooks.  They do have your rotation 10th in ERA, so not radically different from this year.

Just my opinion. I disagree with ALL the projections. They are wrong constantly and always go middle of the road. Projections are nothing more than a guess with a little math behind it.

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But I’m asking which player projections do you guys disagree with?  The 25th ranking is simply the total fWAR of your various player outlooks.  They do have your rotation 10th in ERA, so not radically different from this year.

How accurate can their data be on pitchers who have thrown 286, 122, 380, 279, 370 innings? It's hard to project what young players who are starting to figure it out are going to do. It's much easier to do with 6+ years of SP data so you have a sample that you can more accurately project off of.

I also don't care where they are ranked, it means absolutely nothing.

[ThisIsBirdland]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But I’m asking which player projections do you guys disagree with?  The 25th ranking is simply the total fWAR of your various player outlooks.  They do have your rotation 10th in ERA, so not radically different from this year.

Maybe an ignorant question but why the divergence between fWAR and ERA? Seems like they should be more closely linked? Or are they just saying factors like the Os park + defense makes that much of a difference between the pitching results and the quality of the pitchers?

[UMDTerrapins]

If I'm dealing the kind of prospects that are discussed in conversations about Cease, Luzardo is my target. That said, when 40% of teams make the playoffs, it's hard to find a team willing to trade a TOR-ish level pitcher with several years of control remaining without a serious overpay during the offseason. I think we're slightly more likely to find a good fit for such a trade at the deadline when a few teams flop out in the first half. But even then, it's not like many opportunities will present themselves. If we're going to deal from our top prospects, go big!  Luzardo is younger and with an additional year of control. Cease might be a good addition, but I'm not feeling it. He's less likely to deliver on the value we'd be trading.....in my opinion. More red flags.