Grayson is working on a 2-seamer

[interloper]

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/grayson-rodriguez-on-offseason-lessons-learned-and-a-new-two-seam-fastball-IJHBEKPBEJGJVGIO6IVT3BGUF4/

Quote

“Obviously, the first half was pretty rough,” Rodriguez said. “That basically sums it up. Looking it back and seeing, we should’ve thrown a lot more fastballs. I should’ve thrown a lot more fastballs.”

There were other factors at play early, including a curveball that Rodriguez didn’t place consistently for strikes, and a slider and changeup that didn’t have the full breadth of movement they displayed throughout his time in the minor leagues.

But, at the core of the issue was a lack of fastballs, and Rodriguez remedied that when he returned in July. By September, Rodriguez was throwing his fastball 56.7% of the time — a 12.2-percentage point increase from May. The results backed up the tactic of pounding the zone with heaters.

This offseason, Rodriguez has begun to throw a two-seam fastball — unlike the cut of a four-seamer, Rodriguez’s two-seamer has more arm-side run that could jam a right-handed batter.

“It’s not something we’re going to rely on a whole bunch,” Rodriguez said. “Just more something of a trial and error here during the offseason and maybe carry it into spring training, see how we are before the games that really count take place. Just kind of giving us something to toy around with a little bit.”

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I'm looking forward to Grayson's sophomore season and watching him become the Orioles best starting pitcher. I like that the Orioles and Grayson are testing out a new pitch instead of just trying to improve on what Grayson did will with last season.

[interloper]

Anything that gets him a bit more movement is good in my book. Curious to see if he actually ends up using it. 

At least it's not a cutter!

[Jim'sKid26]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

I'm going to guess and say Grayson is working with this guy in Ft. Worth. https://teamapec.com/trainers/connor-green/

One has to wonder how much influence Chris Holt et al have on this decision to throw a 2SFB. I found these two quotes to be at odds with one another.

"As a result, Rodriguez is tinkering with adding another fastball to his repertoire. This offseason, Rodriguez has begun to throw a two-seam fastball — unlike the cut of a four-seamer, Rodriguez’s two-seamer has more arm-side run that could jam a right-handed batter."

"When Rodriguez overthrows his four-seam fastball, the pitch’s movement actually mirrors that of a two-seam fastball. That is, once the four-seamer leaves his hand, it has arm-side run. That made it difficult to control."

Seems a little strange that you would choose to throw a pitch that does the exact thing you don't want your overthrown 4SFB to do. My suspicion is there is more to this story. 

[sportsfan8703]

The four seamer got a little flat at times last year. That’s when he would get hammered. Bradish had a similar issue too, but then adjusted. 

[Guest]

Wasn’t it the sinker that wasn’t the same post injury?

[Emory Eagle]

His 4-seamer occasionally had very similar movement to that you would expect of a right handed 2-seamer.  Either that or he was already throwing it from time to time in-game last season.  

[InsideCoroner]

1 hour ago, Emory Eagle said:

His 4-seamer occasionally had very similar movement to that you would expect of a right handed 2-seamer.  Either that or he was already throwing it from time to time in-game last season.  

It would be a bit weird if his 4-seamer was breaking to the right. 

[Billy F-Face3]

I like the sound of this. It also reminds me of Dylan Tate and makes me think of how far along he might be in his return, because Tate's 2 seam fast ball was excellent in 2022.

[Emory Eagle]

5 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

It would be a bit weird if his 4-seamer was breaking to the right. 

Watch some highlights from last year, his 4-seam has a bit of a tail off to the right occasionally.  Maybe exaggerated by the center field camera angle in Camden Yards. Check out the “observed movement by pitch type” graphic on his baseball savant page. 

[Rbiggs2525]

I’ve said it before but he should be looking to mimic Stephen Strasburg. They have a similar pitch mix and body size. Strasburg could locate better in my opinion. 

[Jim'sKid26]

10 hours ago, Emory Eagle said:

Watch some highlights from last year, his 4-seam has a bit of a tail off to the right occasionally.  Maybe exaggerated by the center field camera angle in Camden Yards. Check out the “observed movement by pitch type” graphic on his baseball savant page. 

In general, when a 4SFB has arm side run it indicates a mechanical flaw. This is not always the case but it might be in Grayson's case. Most elite pitchers don't want arm side run on their 4SFB. The most typical flaw that causes this is opening up too soon which is common when you overthrow. Grayson admits to that in the article. 

My suspicion is that he got away with it in MiLB because of his elite velocity. Guys were starting their swing early and he would beat them up and in without throwing the pitch in the zone. In the MLB, hitters are much more selective and scouting reports are much more detailed. He can't get away with not locating his 4SFB. Hence the desire to eliminate the unpredictable and uncontrollable movement. 

Now, why the 2SFB? Well maybe he throws it in breaking ball counts to LH hitters? If he can tunnel it with his SL release point and have it break in the opposite direction it can be a very impactful pitch. Down and in to RH batters is also a great way to get GBs. We will just have to see how he uses it.

[Emory Eagle]

5 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

In general, when a 4SFB has arm side run it indicates a mechanical flaw. This is not always the case but it might be in Grayson's case. Most elite pitchers don't want arm side run on their 4SFB. The most typical flaw that causes this is opening up too soon which is common when you overthrow. Grayson admits to that in the article. 

My suspicion is that he got away with it in MiLB because of his elite velocity. Guys were starting their swing early and he would beat them up and in without throwing the pitch in the zone. In the MLB, hitters are much more selective and scouting reports are much more detailed. He can't get away with not locating his 4SFB. Hence the desire to eliminate the unpredictable and uncontrollable movement. 

Now, why the 2SFB? Well maybe he throws it in breaking ball counts to LH hitters? If he can tunnel it with his SL release point and have it break in the opposite direction it can be a very impactful pitch. Down and in to RH batters is also a great way to get GBs. We will just have to see how he uses it.

Agree on all fronts, although when you tick through movement data on baseball savant it is interesting how varied the movement profiles are for 4SFBs and 2SFBs across the league.  
 

Bradish added a 2-seam FB towards the end of the season to great effect, so hopefully GRod will experience similar success.
 

It seemed to me (purely anecdotally) that he began to have success when he was able to locate his FB consistently at the bottom of the zone, and pitching up with it only selectively in strikeout counts.  Earlier in the season it seemed like every FB was up, intentionally or not.

[btdart20]

Some interesting Grayson research.  Especially regarding shaping.

Here's his summary of why he thinks Grayson's 4S played up after his stint in AAA:

"He doesn't have elite ride, but I think it's working because the added horizontal movement and flatter approach angle help mitigate damage, and he has the natural benefit of velo and extension."

Here's the author's TL:DR version buried in the comments:

• DRA likes Grayson because he's pretty good at suppressing runs on K/BB/HBP and hits in a "deserved" fashion, i.e., not smoke and mirrors. Having east-west pitches also helps - fewer whiffs but softer contact.

• Stuff is really good, location not so much, but good enough to make him a likely top-30 pitcher. Fastball, slider, changeup rate very well.

• Fastball shape is suboptimal, but the changes they made while he was in Norfolk seemed to help him suppress contact (just black-boxing it).

• By observation, his secondary command still needs work: fastball command much better.

• Be wary of using advanced metrics if you don't understand what goes into them.

 

If you haven't seen Nick Pollack's breakdown, it's worth the watch!

Lots of chatter about Skenes' FB pitch shape in the fantasy and prospector fields over the last few months.  Pitch shape matters for sure.  But the added value lessens as the velo increases.  

Paul Skenes and The Blueprint for a 100 MPH Fastball with "Poor Shape" (substack.com) 

 

[nvpacchi]

First thing I thought about with the 2S insertion was this really nice thread on twitter highlighting Mitch Keller success.  GRod already has a better FB than Keller, but all the desired fastball traits for GRod (asides velo and extension) are closer to average than plus.  So giving him more 2 plane variance is nice, and it also begs the question, does he even try the cutter again which was quite poor for him last year to give him 3 different 90+ MPH movement profiles for hitters to plan against?