With so many positional unknowns, it makes for an even more interesting season than normal

[Greg Pappas]

In no particular order and with apologies to the TLDR crowd  :

1. Will Holliday show enough improvement at SS this season to push Gunnar to 3B, or will this season solidify his transition to 2B? 
2. Could Mayo improve defensively at 3B to be at least average, and, if so, would Hyde insert him as the regular 3B over a better defender/defensive alignment?  If 3B doesn't pan out, will Mayo be able to play 1B (or even RF) well enough this season to show he's ready to get plenty of AB's in the field?
3. Will the O's give Ortiz a legitimate shot at SS this season? If they do and he plays well, will the O's stay with him regularly despite potentially improved defenders in Holliday at SS & Mayo at 3B pushing for playing time at those positions?
4. Might Mountcastle's career OPS splits (.849 v LHP / .741 v RHP) continue to find him getting many of his AB's v LHP, or will he take the next step and break out into a better all around hitter in his age 27 season?  
5. Will we see an improved Westburg at the plate (100 OPS+ last year) as many suspect, or will his 228 PA rookie season carry over to 2024? Westburg's defensive position remains up for debate, though playing a fine 2B in 2023 should help him get the start there, at least early in the season.  Also, could progress from Holliday at 2B and/or Mayo at 3B push Westburg from a regular and into a Super Utility role?
6. Speaking of utility, will O'Hearn, Mateo and Urias remain with the team throughout the season? O'Hearn had nearly a .900 OPS stretch last season (May-July, 181 PA's, ) surprising most of use, but the rest of his PA's (187) were essentially career average (.714). So, will the real Ryan O'Hearn step up... or perhaps step out? 
7. Will Gunnar beat the sophomore jinx and take yet another step towards being among the games elite?  Also, at which position will he be doing it? 
8. Will 2024 be Santander (FA), Hays, and Mullins' last hoorah in Baltimore? Each have questions moving forward, but Santander's impending free agency makes him the least likely to return.
9. Will Cowser and Kjerstad show this season that they're ready to fill two of those three OF spots moving forward, or, in Kjerstad's case, could he find more PA's as our regular DH?
10. Do players like Stowers and Norby have a future in Baltimore or are trades their most likely scenario?
11. With Rutschman and McCann virtually locked into their spots, that leaves one catcher in the system to watch with great interest... Sam Basallo.  While it seems unlikely, could Basallo continue his meteoric rise and debut in 2024?

Edited January 26 by Greg Pappas

[RZNJ]

1. Holliday will be the 2B sometime in 2024. Westburg will slide from 2B to 3B.

2.  Mayo is 3B/RF/1B when he comes up.

3. Ortiz will not get a legitimate shot barring Injury. 

4. Mountcastle plays virtually everyday and OPS' over 800 and walks 50+ times.  Average over .280.  20-25 Homer's

5. Westburg OPS between .750-.800 with 20 home runs

6. O'Hearn and Mateo gone before all-star break

7. Gunner is in MVP  discussion. 

8. Santander last year.  Hays plays himself to part time role and non tendered.

9. Kjerstad shares RF with Santander and is RF heading into 2025. Cowser shares left with Hays in 2nd half.  Goes into 2025 as the LF.

10. Stowers dealt before season.   Norby traded at deadline 

11. Basallo promoted to AAA July 1.  Called up next May.

Edited January 26 by RZNJ

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

1. Holliday will be the wbc sometime in 2024. Westbuwrg will slide from 2B to 3B.

What is "wbc" ?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

What is "wbc" ?

Wow!   I was at a soccer practice (not mine!) on my phone and should have proof read.  That should be 2B.

Edited January 26 by RZNJ

[Greg Pappas]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Wow!   I was at a soccer practice (not mine!) and should have proof read.  That should be 2B.

Hehehe gotcha.  I was feeling a bit stupid, but feel better now. LOL

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Hehehe gotcha.  I was feeling a bit stupid, but feel better now. LOL

Hmmm. I still feel stupid.   

[now]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

8. Santander last year.  Hays plays himself to part time role and non tendered.

Just to jump on the Hays thing, it bugs me whenever a player's at his likely peak (2023) and the club hangs on too long, so instead of getting top value in trade, ends up a season later with a non-tender. Assuming your prediction holds true, that is!

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, now said:

Just to jump on the Hays thing, it bugs me whenever a player's at his likely peak (2023) and the club hangs on too long, so instead of getting top value in trade, ends up a season later with a non-tender. Assuming your prediction holds true, that is!

I have no idea but Hays scares me a little.  

[Jagwar]

I think Urias and Mateo are a key piece in all of this. Perhaps they are either a part of a deal for pitching, or traded for whatever minor leaguers Elias can acquire. That should break the infielder logjam, yes? 

[DirtyBird]

7 hours ago, now said:

Just to jump on the Hays thing, it bugs me whenever a player's at his likely peak (2023) and the club hangs on too long, so instead of getting top value in trade, ends up a season later with a non-tender. Assuming your prediction holds true, that is!

What was Hays's trade value this offseason and what is the indicator that he has peaked?

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What was Hays's trade value this offseason and what is the indicator that he has peaked?

He had a .345 BABIP last year significantly higher than the previous 3 years.  Most of his stats have been pretty steady but that and strikeouts were up last year.  He might have a better year in him but I wouldn’t bet on it.

I doubt his trade value was high and it would be a gamble to just plug Cowser in there.   The O’s like depth so Hays stays until Cowser wins the job or Hays loses it.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 hours ago, now said:

Just to jump on the Hays thing, it bugs me whenever a player's at his likely peak (2023) and the club hangs on too long, so instead of getting top value in trade, ends up a season later with a non-tender. Assuming your prediction holds true, that is!

It’s why I wanted the Orioles to explore trading Zack Britton following his 2016 season. It was obvious that the playoff run for that group was over and the Orioles needed to retool their roster. 

Plus very few relievers have an extended run of success like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. The Orioles would have still crashed and burned, but it would have been nice to sell high on Britton to get some prospects. 

[jabba72]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It’s why I wanted the Orioles to explore trading Zack Britton following his 2016 season. It was obvious that the playoff run for that group was over and the Orioles needed to retool their roster. 

Plus very few relievers have an extended run of success like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. The Orioles would have still crashed and burned, but it would have been nice to sell high on Britton to get some prospects. 

Yeah I was in favor of trading Machado as well depending on the return of course. Have to get max-value or it isnt worthwhile, but with Buck as manager it wasnt going to happen. He was there to win. 

[jabba72]

15 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

In no particular order and with apologies to the TLDR crowd  :

1. Will Holliday show enough improvement at SS this season to push Gunnar to 3B, or will this season solidify his transition to 2B? 
2. Could Mayo improve defensively at 3B to be at least average, and, if so, would Hyde insert him as the regular 3B over a better defender/defensive alignment?  If 3B doesn't pan out, will Mayo be able to play 1B (or even RF) well enough this season to show he's ready to get plenty of AB's in the field?
3. Will the O's give Ortiz a legitimate shot at SS this season? If they do and he plays well, will the O's stay with him regularly despite potentially improved defenders in Holliday at SS & Mayo at 3B pushing for playing time at those positions?
4. Might Mountcastle's career OPS splits (.849 v LHP / .741 v RHP) continue to find him getting many of his AB's v LHP, or will he take the next step and break out into a better all around hitter in his age 27 season?  
5. Will we see an improved Westburg at the plate (100 OPS+ last year) as many suspect, or will his 228 PA rookie season carry over to 2024? Westburg's defensive position remains up for debate, though playing a fine 2B in 2023 should help him get the start there, at least early in the season.  Also, could progress from Holliday at 2B and/or Mayo at 3B push Westburg from a regular and into a Super Utility role?
6. Speaking of utility, will O'Hearn, Mateo and Urias remain with the team throughout the season? O'Hearn had nearly a .900 OPS stretch last season (May-July, 181 PA's, ) surprising most of use, but the rest of his PA's (187) were essentially career average (.714). So, will the real Ryan O'Hearn step up... or perhaps step out? 
7. Will Gunnar beat the sophomore jinx and take yet another step towards being among the games elite?  Also, at which position will he be doing it? 
8. Will 2024 be Santander (FA), Hays, and Mullins' last hoorah in Baltimore? Each have questions moving forward, but Santander's impending free agency makes him the least likely to return.
9. Will Cowser and Kjerstad show this season that they're ready to fill two of those three OF spots moving forward, or, in Kjerstad's case, could he find more PA's as our regular DH?
10. Do players like Stowers and Norby have a future in Baltimore or are trades their most likely scenario?
11. With Rutschman and McCann virtually locked into their spots, that leaves one catcher in the system to watch with great interest... Sam Basallo.  While it seems unlikely, could Basallo continue his meteoric rise and debut in 2024?

1. My guess is no Holliday wont unseat Gunnar at SS in 23. Unseat Westburg at 2B in late August is my guess.

2. Complete unknown on Mayo's defensive position, I hope he is putting the work in to stay at 3B.

3. If injuries happen in the infield thats the only way Ortiz will get a legit shot.

4. Mountcastle will probably stay within his .750-.800 OPS range.

5. Westburg owns 2B until Holliday makes his debut, depending who has the stronger arm might be moved to 3B. Guess that its Westburg in a supersub role depending on how Mayo or Urias are doing. So many options its ridiculous. 

6. Mateo probably is not long for this roster. O'Hearn has backup 1B and DH at least in a part-time role splitting duties at DH with the rest of the team.  

7.  Im not expecting a dramatic step forward, Gunnar already had a great season. but he'll avoid the sophmore jinx.

8. I doubt Santander will be with the O's in 25, so its his last season. Mullins has until after 25 before he reaches free agency so my guess is he wont be non-tendered or traded. he'll reamain through 25.

9. I expect both Cowser and Kjerstad to play well and start to get regular PA's sometime after June. 

10. No not unless injuries happen, and alot of them. 

11. No they wont want to start up his service time yet with Basallo. He's good just not debuting in Baltimore in 24.

[now]

3 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

What was Hays's trade value this offseason and what is the indicator that he has peaked?

An all-star left fielder has to have some decent value (Geraldo Parra, anyone)? Peak is in the eye of the predictor: for me and Hays it's not so much stats but injuries and a hunch. Like with, I dunno, Brady Anderson, Melvin Mora, BJ Surhoff, Chris Davis (extensions making it even worse than just forgoing the trade option).