How’s the East look now?

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I believe it was PECOTA.

Actually, there are multiple such projections on his FG page, though PECOTA wasn't one of them. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corbin-burnes/19361/stats?position=P

Anyway, with the more balanced schedule now, coming to the AL East shouldn't have that big of an impact anymore. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Actually, there are multiple such projections on his FG page, though PECOTA wasn't one of them. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corbin-burnes/19361/stats?position=P

Anyway, with the more balanced schedule now, coming to the AL East shouldn't have that big of an impact anymore. 

PECOTA is proprietary to Baseball Prospectus, which is a Fangraphs competitor.  

[dystopia]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

PECOTA is proprietary to Baseball Prospectus, which is a Fangraphs competitor.  

Yeah and BP wants me to give them money to see their worthless projections, so I can't verify what PECOTA had Burnes at.

[dystopia]

 

[Satyr3206]

13 hours ago, dystopia said:

 

I agree with these guys. It seems like the projections think it's better to go with high priced free agents over homegrown. I don't know if there is a metric for that but I do know a younger team that's improving and healthier is a better bet than an older overpaid team.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I agree with these guys. It seems like the projections think it's better to go with high priced free agents over homegrown. I don't know if there is a metric for that but I do know a younger team that's improving and healthier is a better bet than an older overpaid team.

I think what it seems is that it's easier to project a veteran player than one with little ML data.

[dystopia]

I think it's funny that everyone was taking the over on 87.5 wins in this thread (pre-Burnes trade) and then PECOTA comes out with their 86 win garbage (post-Burnes trade) and everyone's suddenly like "oH yEAh tHAt mAKeS sENsE".

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

I agree with these guys. It seems like the projections think it's better to go with high priced free agents over homegrown. I don't know if there is a metric for that but I do know a younger team that's improving and healthier is a better bet than an older overpaid team.

Projections seems to rely on previous production to forecast future performance.  This seems to be fairly accurate to predict the production of veteran players.  It's nowhere near accurate for projections of top talent just breaking into the league.

[EddeeEddee]

On 2/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, btdart20 said:

IMO:  Cease > Montgomery in 2024-25.

Include me as one that would like to see the O's pick up another high end starting pitcher.  I worry about Means' durability and would like Wells to stay in the pen.  Would really like to see them pick up another reliever too.  

[SteveA]

On 2/6/2024 at 12:18 PM, Philip said:

I still have health issues but I backed away because I was living online and needed a reset. I have to ration my time carefully but I’ll be here from time to time. I did maintain my membership, though. Tony needs the support.

Jonah Heim…. Ever think where were be if we’d kept him? He’s turned into maybe a top-2 catcher.

Hey welcome back!  You've been missed here.

[Frobby]

On 2/8/2024 at 10:19 AM, Frobby said:

ZiPS has the Orioles winning the AL East!  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2024-pre-spring-training-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

Szymborski has re-run his ZiPS projections with the first two months of data and standings and now has the Orioles and Yankees finishing in a tie at 95-67.   In the previous projections linked above, the Orioles were finishing atop the division at 90-72, with the Yankees 88-74.   So the good news is that the Orioles’ projection has improved by 5 games; the bad news is that the Yankees’ projection has improved by 7.  
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-two-month-standings-update/

[Spy Fox]

I'm guessing that improvement is mainly due to the results banked so far. With maybe a bit of improvement in the rotation projections due to their excellent performances thus far. 

Cortes 3.30 ERA, Stroman 2.76 ERA, Rodon 2.95 ERA, Schmidt 2.52 ERA, Gil 2.10 ERA

 

[Just Regular]

I'm glad to be 3-1 up racing to 7 wins in the season series so ties go our way.

I think just three game series left, so possible to contrive Burnes-Bradish-Grayson starting 100% of them as long as is necessary.

[Spy Fox]

What the Gil is going on here: 

 

[Emory Eagle]

I watched Gil pitch to the Angels last night.  Really impressive, just absolutely electric stuff.  Grayson could do this too if he could control his FB a bit more.  Walks remain a concern, and I would think he will have a relatively conservative innings limit as it looks like his 60+ IP this year already exceed his total IP for the last two years combined.