Jorge Mateo 2024

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know if I had one position player to rely on in a late inning close game situation that I would not pick Mateo.   I don't even think I'd pick him for a key stolen base, I'd be too worried he'd get himself picked off.

I’d say Mateo is a very good choice to steal a base.  He’s been picked off 6 times in his career (3 classified as pickoff/caught stealing), as against 78 stolen bases and 17 caught stealing (which includes the 3 PCS).   So, if you add in the non-redundant pickoffs, that’s still a 79.5% success rate.  

Just for comparison purposes, Mullins also has been picked off 6 times in his career, three of which were PCS, as against 93 SB and 26 CS.  Adding in the on-redundant pickoffs, that’s a 76.2% success rate.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say Mateo is a very good choice to steal a base.  He’s been picked off 6 times in his career (3 classified as pickoff/caught stealing), as against 78 stolen bases and 17 caught stealing (which includes the 3 PCS).   So, if you add in the non-redundant pickoffs, that’s still a 79.5% success rate.  

Just for comparison purposes, Mullins also has been picked off 6 times in his career, three of which were PCS, as against 93 SB and 26 CS.  Adding in the on-redundant pickoffs, that’s a 76.2% success rate.   
 

I agreed that it wasn't a rational take.

No need to fact check me.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agreed that it wasn't a rational take.

No need to fact check me.

Your post just got me wondering if Mateo was a particularly big pickoff risk compared to other base stealers.  

Bobby Witt was the pickoff leader last year, picked off 8 times (6 PCS) against 49 SB and 15 CS.
 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Your post just got me wondering if Mateo was a particularly big pickoff risk compared to other base stealers.  

Bobby Witt was the pickoff leader last year, picked off 8 times (6 PCS) against 49 SB and 15 CS.
 

Oh no, it was only 3 times last season, same as Gunnar.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather not pick either him or McKenna. 

I want as many of the guys in Norfolk, that have been putting up numbers, in the majors as possible.

I don't think there is enough value in a late inning stolen base threat to warrant a roster spot in today's game.

Mateo and McKenna are not hills I'm gonna die on, but the question with the Norfolk guys (Cowser, Kjerstad, Norby) is what role would they actually play? A stolen base/defensive sub guy may be a terrible player but at least they aren't redundant. 

There is also the question of whether it is developmentally better for the Norfolk guys to play every day in Norfolk or competing with each other for AB's on the MLB team. There are arguments both ways but IMO it's not as simple as "put the best 26 on the roster". Roles and skill sets matter.

[maybenxtyr]

Mateo will probably get 300 or so AB's, and somewhere in there he'll look like an All Star, and the bull will be dfa material. It's not going to change. Hopefully his hot streak comes at a time when it's needed like the beginning of last season.

[sportsfan8703]

When Mateo is going good it sure is fun to watch. Having him on base with Gunnar/Adley up is a real treat. 

Elias made the right move to ride with Mateo vs LHP and DFA Nevin. Hyde didn’t talk about the move specifically, but the announcers had mentioned that Hyde pointed out how at the end of last season that Mateo had come on down the stretch when playing.

For better or worse.  Can’t just bump this thread after the 52 losses we have this year. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

When Mateo is going good it sure is fun to watch. Having him on base with Gunnar/Adley up is a real treat. 

Elias made the right move to ride with Mateo vs LHP and DFA Nevin. Hyde didn’t talk about the move specifically, but the announcers had mentioned that Hyde pointed out how at the end of last season that Mateo had come on down the stretch when playing.

For better or worse.  Can’t just bump this thread after the 52 losses we have this year. 

Agree that Mateo provides more value to the team than Nevin. And probably McKenna, too. I don't love him at 2B, and we saw why a couple of times yesterday, but Westburg will probably start there more overall, especially vs. RHP, so it's not a huge deal. 

It seems like they know DHing McCann vs LHP is not ideal, but the team does lack a true RH DH option vs LHP. Westburg will do for now, but it's an odd fit. 

Anyway, all Mateo has to do is just find some kind of middle ground in his offensive game. He hit a non-OPACY home run yesterday, or at least a Fenway monster ball, which was good to see. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Agree that Mateo provides more value to the team than Nevin. And probably McKenna, too. I don't love him at 2B, and we saw why a couple of times yesterday, but Westburg will probably start there more overall, especially vs. RHP, so it's not a huge deal. 

It seems like they know DHing McCann vs LHP is not ideal, but the team does lack a true RH DH option vs LHP. Westburg will do for now, but it's an odd fit. 

Anyway, all Mateo has to do is just find some kind of middle ground in his offensive game. He hit a non-OPACY home run yesterday, or at least a Fenway monster ball, which was good to see. 

Well if Mateo is playing he has to be playing the field. That’s part of his baked in value. He can give multiple players rest at DH while he plays whatever position in the field. You need that rest over 162.

The dude is so exciting to watch. You just can’t get heartbroken and start falsely hoping he turns into Alfonso Soriano 2.0. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well if Mateo is playing he has to be playing the field. That’s part of his baked in value. He can give multiple players rest at DH while he plays whatever position in the field. You need that rest over 162.

The dude is so exciting to watch. You just can’t get heartbroken and start falsely hoping he turns into Alfonso Soriano 2.0. 

He certainly made the 8th inning more exciting.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well if Mateo is playing he has to be playing the field. That’s part of his baked in value. He can give multiple players rest at DH while he plays whatever position in the field. You need that rest over 162.

The dude is so exciting to watch. You just can’t get heartbroken and start falsely hoping he turns into Alfonso Soriano 2.0. 

C'mon.  The dude has shown that he can go on insane heaters, but he's also going to cancel that out by being an automatic out at the plate for a few months.  I'll give you that he's exciting on the bases, but his defense isn't what it was 2 years ago.  I don't know if that's because he's regressing as a player or if he needs the steady playing time to get in a groove, but when you're talking about "baked in value" that's taking things a bit far when he put up .5 fWAR last year.  

I know you're head over heels with anyone that puts on an Orioles uniform but there's so much about Mateo that's just...frustrating.  And also replaceable.  And I LIKE Mateo, he's one of my favorite bad Orioles of all time, he seems like a great teammate, clubhouse guy but there's not much value here, other than he can stand at some different positions on defense and steal a base if he gets on base...which is a monumental task for him at times.

[interloper]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

C'mon.  The dude has shown that he can go on insane heaters, but he's also going to cancel that out by being an automatic out at the plate for a few months.  I'll give you that he's exciting on the bases, but his defense isn't what it was 2 years ago.  I don't know if that's because he's regressing as a player or if he needs the steady playing time to get in a groove, but when you're talking about "baked in value" that's taking things a bit far when he put up .5 fWAR last year.  

I know you're head over heels with anyone that puts on an Orioles uniform but there's so much about Mateo that's just...frustrating.  And also replaceable.  And I LIKE Mateo, he's one of my favorite bad Orioles of all time, he seems like a great teammate, clubhouse guy but there's not much value here, other than he can stand at some different positions on defense and steal a base if he gets on base...which is a monumental task for him at times.

I find it hard to be mad at him for not being a great 2B when he's being forced there due to the silly Holliday decision. And Mateo barely played 2B in spring. So it's hard not to expect him to kinda suck over there, but that's not really his fault. I expect we'll see similar things when they put him in the OF. The O's want to desperately make him a super utility guy, but he's really just a SS. We'll see. 

[Orioles0615]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I find it hard to be mad at him for not being a great 2B when he's being forced there due to the silly Holliday decision. And Mateo barely played 2B in spring. So it's hard not to expect him to kinda suck over there, but that's not really his fault. I expect we'll see similar things when they put him in the OF. The O's want to desperately make him a super utility guy, but he's really just a SS. We'll see. 

He also barley played in the outfield in the spring. All the talk about making him a super utility and "you will be seeing a lot of him in the OF" seemed like BS

[DirtyBird]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

I find it hard to be mad at him for not being a great 2B when he's being forced there due to the silly Holliday decision. And Mateo barely played 2B in spring. So it's hard not to expect him to kinda suck over there, but that's not really his fault. I expect we'll see similar things when they put him in the OF. The O's want to desperately make him a super utility guy, but he's really just a SS. We'll see. 

He short hopped a throw turning attempting to turn a DP.

That is indication that he will suck at the position?

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

When Mateo is going good it sure is fun to watch. Having him on base with Gunnar/Adley up is a real treat. 

Elias made the right move to ride with Mateo vs LHP and DFA Nevin. Hyde didn’t talk about the move specifically, but the announcers had mentioned that Hyde pointed out how at the end of last season that Mateo had come on down the stretch when playing.

For better or worse.  Can’t just bump this thread after the 52 losses we have this year. 

I don't disagree on Mateo versus Nevin, but that's more a testament to how poorly I view Nevin much more than any ringing endorsement of Mateo.  While Mateo will have a game here and there where he looks great, and even put together stretches of a few weeks where he's MVP caliber for that short stretch, over the course of 162 games he's not going to bring much value to the team.  The bat, overall, is just too poor to really carry him playing as often as he did last year.  A Mateo who gets 100-200 at bats can be valuable.  One that gets 300+ at bats is going to hurt.  But considering the current roster makeup, Mateo is going to play a bunch.  For good or for ill.  Ride the good as long as you can, as the ill is certainly coming with him.  His bat isn't consistently great, good or even average, and his defense suffers if he doesn't get consistent playing time, which his bat doesn't show he should get.  Thus you get a poor hitting utility player whose defense is also regressing.  Not a good formula.  He had a good opening day, and I hope he stays good/above average as long as he's getting playing time as I want the Os to win.  But don't expect it to continue.