Do the Orioles believe in blockbuster extensions?

[emmett16]

Simple question. Will the Orioles sign any of their players to *blockbuster long term deals?  I’m defining blockbuster as more than 7 years and more than 150MM.  
 

There’s been a lot of talk about signing players to long term deals and I’m curious your thoughts about the organizational strategy.  
 

I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately and am starting to believe extensions for our young guys are not in the cards, unless they are willing to take an extreme team friendly well below market value deal. 
 

Elias and Sig are disciples of Lunhow who in the book Future Values is described as being “horny for efficiency” and “being efficient just for efficiency’s sake”.  They are also masters of data and models. Frankly, I think the success of their players who have now gone through the system’s entirety has emboldened them with information.  They have an exact blueprint from start to finish. And that blueprint becomes even more detailed as the players continue in MLB. That information gives them the ability to create models based on data gathered from those players at ages as early as 13y/o and at every step of the way through  their development system.  Not only do they know what works, but they know what does not work.  They know what each step in the process (towards a proficient MLB player) looks like and can easily forecast what combinations of data (metrics from all tech) will continue to improve, what they can modify, and what they cannot modify.  Various data milestones all along the way from youth level, to HS, to college, to minors along with make-up data and basic physiological data can create a player profile that is extremely accurate to forecast now that they have players that have reached the highest level.   With a successful blueprint of data in hand they can more effectively draft and more effectively develop the players they bring in their system and more accurately forecast their future success.  With all of that ability, why would they pay market value or even slightly below market value when they can accurately forecast and stock a pipeline of players at every level that can eventually replace the players on the MLB roster once they hit FA or the higher tiers of arbitration? 
 

I don’t think they will.  My emotions say I hope I’m wrong because like any fan I’ve grown attached to the player.  But I truly think they believe they can draft and develop replacements for their current(and future) young stars.  What say you?

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

It's too early to say with the new ownership. the obvious answer was no with the Angelos-led ownership. 

Ask me this next spring after new ownership has a chance to get their feet under them.

[Too Tall]

Not if they have an agent named Boras. Seriously, will be interesting to follow the dynamics between new ownership and Elias & Co. I think Elias & Co. will be very measured when it comes to extended contracts and their inherent risks. Even if the money is there. So, I vote we shall see.

[Frobby]

Your definition of a blockbuster extension is pretty strict.  For example, Corbin Carroll signed an 8/$111 mm deal that for me fits the definition of a blockbuster though it’s well below $150 mm.  But either way, I guess we’ll find out the Orioles’ appetite for extensions in the next 12 months.  

[Satyr3206]

While I have come to appreciate the Models and Data that they have gathered there are many cases of under and over performing these things. I don't think they can be a sole way of coming to decisions.

[Aglets]

This is a pretty silly question (sorry, no offense intended) when we are literally 48 hours away from a new ownership group taking control.

It is clear that the Angelos family didn't care for doing too many of these kinda deals.  Although it's worth noting that Chris Davis sort of qualifies by your metrics (exactly 7 years, over 150M).

I think it's pretty clear Elias and Sig wouldn't mind operating with a top 10 payroll in MLB instead of a bottom 3.   But that is up to ownership.  John Angelos would certainly never have approved something like that.  But now we are on the cusp of getting a new owner with a net worth that is approximately double that of the Angelos family.

Another wrinkle is that some of our top elite young guys are Boras clients so they will be much harder to extend on the kinds of deals you are talking about.

Will we EVER sign a young player to a contract like that?   I think yes.  But who knows when.

[emmett16]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's too early to say with the new ownership. the obvious answer was no with the Angelos-led ownership. 

Ask me this next spring after new ownership has a chance to get their feet under them.

I was thinking about this more in terms of a baseball ops perspective regardless of owner.  Does the FO believe in their drafting and development abilities to the point of not needing to retain “core” players.  Do they think they can build replacements for guys on the 26 man? 

Edited March 25 by emmett16

[Sanity Check]

Under old ownership, no way.  Under new ownership - remains to be seen.

[Satyr3206]

Just now, emmett16 said:

I was thinking about this more in terms of a baseball ops perspective regardless of owner.  Does the FO believe in their drafting and development abilities to the point of not needing to retain “core” players.  Don’t they think build replacements for guys on the 26 man? 

That is a great question. And it's possible they do.

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Your definition of a blockbuster extension is pretty strict.  For example, Corbin Carroll signed an 8/$111 mm deal that for me fits the definition of a blockbuster though it’s well below $150 mm.  But either way, I guess we’ll find out the Orioles’ appetite for extensions in the next 12 months.  

I was trying to make a demarcation of something that was close to realistic and close to market value.  I do think they’d jump on a fairly below market deal, but not something one of the burgeoning stars would accept.  I think Carrol’s deal is close enough to team friendly and at the very top of what they would entertain.  

[Satyr3206]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's too early to say with the new ownership. the obvious answer was no with the Angelos-led ownership. 

Ask me this next spring after new ownership has a chance to get their feet under them.

I don't think it will take until next Spring. Rubenstein and his partners are very experienced in Business and Finance. If they leave Baseball ops to Elias and Sig I think they hit the ground running.

[24fps]

Who knows until the new ownership has settled in?  This is a better question for later in the season at the earliest.  I agree with Frobby that 7/150 is too high a bar.  Carroll's 8/111 would be a good median figure IMO.

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Aglets said:

This is a pretty silly question (sorry, no offense intended) when we are literally 48 hours away from a new ownership group taking control.

It is clear that the Angelos family didn't care for doing too many of these kinda deals.  Although it's worth noting that Chris Davis sort of qualifies by your metrics (exactly 7 years, over 150M).

I think it's pretty clear Elias and Sig wouldn't mind operating with a top 10 payroll in MLB instead of a bottom 3.   But that is up to ownership.  John Angelos would certainly never have approved something like that.  But now we are on the cusp of getting a new owner with a net worth that is approximately double that of the Angelos family.

Another wrinkle is that some of our top elite young guys are Boras clients so they will be much harder to extend on the kinds of deals you are talking about.

Will we EVER sign a young player to a contract like that?   I think yes.  But who knows when.

No offense taken. 
 

I guess my question is more, are Elias & Sigs egos (belief in themselves) to the point of thinking they don’t need to sign current players? Do they think they have the ability to draft and develop players w/o the need to spend on FA years.  And, can money saved go into other ventures to continue to refine and improve the development system.  

[Satyr3206]

Just now, emmett16 said:

No offense taken. 
 

I guess my question is more, are Elias & Sigs egos (belief in themselves) to the point of thinking they don’t need to sign current players? Do they think they have the ability to draft and develop players w/o the need to spend on FA years.  And, can money saved go into other ventures to continue to refine and improve the development system.  

That is the System I used to talk to a good friend about in the 80's. Good idea, hard to get right.

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Who knows until the new ownership has settled in?  This is a better question for later in the season at the earliest.  I agree with Frobby that 7/150 is too high a bar.  Carroll's 8/111 would be a good median figure IMO.

I’m thinking about this without influence of ownership.  How do they see the best way to create players for the 26 man roster?  Reload with new untested entities or run with older declining ones? IE.  in 2029 Gunnar is a FA and will be starting his decline years.  Does our FO want to pay for that, or do they think they can replace that years production.