Gunnar Henderson vs. Bobby Witt -- who will have the better career?

[Frobby]

Bobby Witt and Gunnar Henderson were in the same draft class, though Witt is 11.5 months older than Gunnar.   The Royals promoted Witt to the big leagues at the start of 2022 and he struggled a bit his rookie year, but really started coming into his own last season.   Gunnar was promoted in late August 2022, and won the Rookie of the Year.   So, let's compare their 2023 seasons:

BW: 158 G, 694 PA, 641 AB, 97 R, 177 H, 28 2B, 11 3B, 30 HR, 96 RBI, 49 SB, 15 CS, 40 BB, 121 K's, .276/.319/.495, 120 OPS+, 4.4 rWAR, 5.7 fWAR, -14 Rtot, -6 Rdrs, +0.2 UZR, +14 OAA

GH: 150 G, 622 PA, 560 AB, 100 R, 143 H, 29 2B, 9 3B, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 10 SB, 3 CS, 56 BB, 159 K's, .255/.325/.489, 125 OPS+, 6.2 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR, +11 Rtot, +13 Rdrs, +6..6 UZR, +1 OAA

rWAR prefers Gunnar's 2023 season, 6.2 to 4.4, while fWAR prefers Witt's, 5.7 to 4.6.   A big part of that appears to be defense, where Gunnar had a +13 to -6 advantage in Rdrs (which feeds fWAR), while Witt had the advantage in OAA (which feeds fWAR), +14 to +1.   So,  I'd say the 2023 season is very close to a draw, depending on which flavor of WAR and defensive metrics one prefers.

Notably, both players got stronger as the year progressed.   Gunnar's 81/162 game OPS splits were .795/.827, while Witt's were .701/.927.   So, Witt was coming on like a house on fire in the second half.

It has to be mentioned again that Gunnar is essentially a year younger and has almost a year's less experience, so the 2023 comparison has to be viewed with that in mind.   But, I don't think the way Witt finished the season can be ignored either.   It sure seems his light bulb has come on.

Both players have come roaring out of the gates in the first 3 games of 2024, with Witt at a 1.888 OPS, Gunnar at 1.438.

Bottom line, I think this is going to be a debate we may still be having a decade from now.   But will we care, or will Gunnar be playing for the highest bidder while Witt is still fulfilling the contract he signed this winter (or some even more lucrative deal he works out with the Royals when his opt-out years arrive)?  We will see.

[spleen1015]

Who knows today, but it's going to be fun to watch!

[EddeeEddee]

I got my money on Luis Rengifo

[Jagwar]

They're gonna steal All Star votes freom each other

[Say O!]

A great question now and let’s hope for baseball fans to be debating for years to come.  Can recall those “friendly” discussions about who would you take at SS — ARod, Jeter, Garciaparra, and to lesser extent Tejada.  Of course we didn’t have as many advanced metrics available at the time to inform.  Whats even more exciting to me about Gunnar/Witt is that both play the game hard, like hair on fire, making them so much fun to watch on a daily basis. 

Edited April 1 by Say O!

[Malike]

I think Witt will have the better career, but both will be playing in all-star games. His speed/power combo is something that Gunnar can't compete with.

[G54377]

I think Witt will have the sexier numbers. He could be 300/300. Gunnar is with the better young core that could have more success. 

[Sports Guy]

Witt will have more steals.  It’s going to be close.

[yark14]

They are both fantastic baseball players.  No need to compare.

[Aristotelian]

It's going to be super fun to watch these two over the years. I would give Witt a significant edge but would not be surprised to see Gunnar outperform him. I love Gunnar's defense and plate discipline, but I think Witt has an edge in hit tool (especially when you consider Gunnar's splits), power, and speed.

In our fantasy league, I paid $56 for Witt which was the most of any non-keeper. I have Gunnar as a keeper as well but I'm guessing he would have gone for significantly less than Witt, perhaps in the low $40's, but maybe I just overpaid for Witt.

[Sports Guy]

I would love to ask Elias if he had taken Witt over Adley, does he think he still takes Gunnar.

And if he does, does he take Holliday?

That stuff fascinates me.

[deward]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would love to ask Elias if he had taken Witt over Adley, does he think he still takes Gunnar.

And if he does, does he take Holliday?

That stuff fascinates me.

I imagine he'd say he always takes the best player available. A quick glance at the 2019 draft doesn't show me a combo better than Adley and Gunnar. Picking Adley and then getting a rough equivalent of Witt a round later had to be the best case scenario. 

[Yossarian]

Or will it be Volpe?

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Or will it be Volpe?

That was quite the draft class.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, deward said:

I imagine he'd say he always takes the best player available. A quick glance at the 2019 draft doesn't show me a combo better than Adley and Gunnar. Picking Adley and then getting a rough equivalent of Witt a round later had to be the best case scenario. 

Maybe…Witt is younger and so far, in 2 full seasons, had the higher WAR in one of the seasons.

Witt and Gunnar could definitely end up better.

That said, a lot of what Adley means to this team isn’t something that can be measured and I do think that stuff gets lost in the stat age we are in now. I think those who value it greatly overblow it too. There needs to be that happy median.