Colton Cowser 2024

[Rbiggs2525]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Jackson has a better chance.

Would be cool if went on a huge tear the last two months.

I said that to myself today. If he hits .300 with 10HR over the last 2 months he could finish top 3.

[OsFanInOhio]

Randomly took a look at cowser’s stats this year compared to Gunnar from last year to see how he compared to a ROTY winner. It is surprisingly similar. 
 

2023 Gunnar: 255/325/489, 123 wrc+, 4.7 fwar in 150 games. 28 hr, 82 rbi, 10 sb

2024 Colton: 243/326/453, 121 wrc+, 2.9 fwar (4.2 over 150 games). 17 hr, 51 rbi 7 sb through 107 games (24 hr, 71 rbi, 10 sb pace for 150 games). 

basically the same obp and similar avg / slug. I am a bit surprised the fwar is .5 apart projected through 150 games since they have similar wrc+ and fangraphs really likes cowers defense better than Gunnar’s last year. But given how bad cowser was in May, if he can keep up his improved performance he might make up a bunch of that difference. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Randomly took a look at cowser’s stats this year compared to Gunnar from last year to see how he compared to a ROTY winner. It is surprisingly similar. 
 

2023 Gunnar: 255/325/489, 123 wrc+, 4.7 fwar in 150 games. 28 hr, 82 rbi, 10 sb

2024 Colton: 243/326/453, 121 wrc+, 2.9 fwar (4.2 over 150 games). 17 hr, 51 rbi 7 sb through 107 games (24 hr, 71 rbi, 10 sb pace for 150 games). 

basically the same obp and similar avg / slug. I am a bit surprised the fwar is .5 apart projected through 150 games since they have similar wrc+ and fangraphs really likes cowers defense better than Gunnar’s last year. But given how bad cowser was in May, if he can keep up his improved performance he might make up a bunch of that difference. 

Interesting comparison, and it whets my appetite for what Cowser might do next year.  The positional advantage of playing 3B/SS vs. LF/CF is pretty significant.  Cowser is at -2.7 positional value, Gunnar was +2.8 last year.  That differential is worth 0.5 - 0.6 fWAR.

[Es4M11]

Is Colton Cowser a reasonable facsimile of Alex Gordon? Better maybe?

[Sports Guy]

As recent  as mid July, we had people saying he should be optioned.

People kept saying, his statcast stuff doesn’t matter since the results aren’t there.  “it’s not all bad luck”

No it’s not all bad luck but those takes look so foolish right now imo.

The process was always there. He was consistently doing what you want, outside of the swing and miss.(not saying that’s not a big deal)

When are people going to learn patience? We are starting to already see it with Mayo. We saw it with Holliday. We saw it with Gunnar. We saw it with Grayson and we saw it with Adley.

People (not just OH) never learn. I don’t know if it’s just a feeling of the Os can’t develop because that was an issue in the past or what but the Ignoring of stats, how well the org is doing with developing, etc…is really painful to watch. 

Edited August 9 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Is Colton Cowser a reasonable facsimile of Alex Gordon? Better maybe?

I think that is a terrific comp. Cowser might have a bit more power. Gordon maxed out at 23 and only twice hit 20+. Good OBP and all around hitter with a bit of power from the left side, plus LF/average CF, multiple all stars but never an MVP candidate. 34 WAR over 14 years. Yeah, similar skill set and I could see that level of production.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As recent  as mid July, we had people saying he should be optioned.

People kept saying, his statcast stuff doesn’t matter since the results aren’t there.  “it’s not all bad luck”

No it’s not all bad luck but those takes look so foolish right now imo.

The process was always there. He was consistently doing what you want, outside of the swing and miss.(not saying that’s not a big deal)

When are people going to learn patience? We are starting to already see it with Mayo. We saw it with Holliday. We saw it with Gunnar. We saw it with Grayson and we saw it with Adley.

People (not just OH) never learn. I don’t know if it’s just a feeling of the Os can’t develop because that was an issue in the past or what but the Ignoring of stats, how well the org is doing with developing, etc…is really painful to watch. 

I will give you credit, you nailed Cowser's positive attributes and called his turnaround. I admit to being down on Cowser. I think I said they should option him if his slump continues for another month and optioning him would have been the end of the world... but I am very glad it wasn't necessary and Cowser proved me wrong. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I will give you credit, you nailed Cowser's positive attributes and called his turnaround. I admit to being down on Cowser. I think I said they should option him if his slump continues for another month and optioning him would have been the end of the world... but I am very glad it wasn't necessary and Cowser proved me wrong. 

Thanks but I wasn’t the only one. 
 

My thing is this…when the positive signs are there and the history producing in the minors is there and the scouting reports are there, I think we have to use all that info to say, be patient.

There is a learning curve. These guys have to be given at bats and experience. 
 

Some people mocked it when some of us would say..”you can’t learn to hit ML pitching in the minors”

Thats true. How many times do we have to what the divide between AAA and the majors is as big as we have ever seen?  It’s been a constant theme for much of this season. That means they need time to learn and adjust, which means patience is needed.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

14 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Is Colton Cowser a reasonable facsimile of Alex Gordon? Better maybe?

If the O's get 34 bWAR from Cowser over his career, as the Royals did with Gordon, they should be well pleased.

Gordon's Rookie year was 2007 after being taken second overall out of Nebraska in 2005 draft. Gordon was a bit more highly decorated out of college than Cowser.

He was:

2005 USA Baseball Golden Spikes Award Winner
2005 Xanthus Dick Howser Trophy Winner
2005 Brooks Wallace Award Winner
2005 ABCA National Player of the Year
2005 Baseball America National Player of the Year
2005 ESPY Award Finalist for Male College Athlete of the Year

Gordon and the Huskers won the Big-12 conference title in 2005, where he was PoY for the second time, and made it all the way to the CWS where they lost to eventual champs Texas. 

He played 151 games in 2007 and slashed .247/.314/.411; with 134 H, 36 2B and 15 HRs. He had 14 SB putting up OPS+ = 90.  He did not win RoY. He played mostly 3B, his original college position, and did not really emerge as an impact player until 2011 when he was moved to LF fulltime. He responded with a stellar offensive season in 2011 slashing .303/.376/.502 with 185 H, 45 2B and 23 HR while winning a GG. It took him 4 years, 2007-2010, to breakout. The move to LF coincided with his emergence. After that he was a 3 time all star and an 8 time GG winner. 

Cowser looks like he is having a bit better rookie year than Gordon did. Let's hope it doesn't take Cowser 4 years to find himself at the MLB level. 

[Sports Guy]

Cowser has more power than Gordon did but Gordon had less swing and miss.

Gordon got a boost in his WAR numbers because of his stellar defense..Cowser looks to be a guy that will get the same type of boost.

 

[Otter]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

As recent  as mid July, we had people saying he should be optioned.

People kept saying, his statcast stuff doesn’t matter since the results aren’t there.  “it’s not all bad luck”

No it’s not all bad luck but those takes look so foolish right now imo.

The process was always there. He was consistently doing what you want, outside of the swing and miss.(not saying that’s not a big deal)

When are people going to learn patience? We are starting to already see it with Mayo. We saw it with Holliday. We saw it with Gunnar. We saw it with Grayson and we saw it with Adley.

People (not just OH) never learn. I don’t know if it’s just a feeling of the Os can’t develop because that was an issue in the past or what but the Ignoring of stats, how well the org is doing with developing, etc…is really painful to watch. 

I think it's more of a microcosm of society and the social media culture that people want to quickly criticize, attack, and bury someone based off a SSS.  And most of the time, the person doing the criticizing knows nothing about what they're talking about...

[Frobby]

In a thread I started on July 8, I advocated cutting Cowser’s playing time by about 1/3 unless he started hitting better.   He preempted me by hitting better as soon as we hit the all star break!  I’m glad to see it and hope he continues to rake the rest of the way.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser has more power than Gordon did but Gordon had less swing and miss.

Gordon got a boost in his WAR numbers because of his stellar defense..Cowser looks to be a guy that will get the same type of boost.

 

Gordon took a few years to really find his stride, including dealing with some injuries.  He had a 34.4 rWAR career over 14 seasons, but 26.4 of that was packed into five years, ages 27-31.   Cowser’s only 24, so I’d say he’s well ahead of where Gordon was at this stage of his career.  

[OsFanInOhio]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Thanks but I wasn’t the only one. 
 

My thing is this…when the positive signs are there and the history producing in the minors is there and the scouting reports are there, I think we have to use all that info to say, be patient.

There is a learning curve. These guys have to be given at bats and experience. 
 

Some people mocked it when some of us would say..”you can’t learn to hit ML pitching in the minors”

Thats true. How many times do we have to what the divide between AAA and the majors is as big as we have ever seen?  It’s been a constant theme for much of this season. That means they need time to learn and adjust, which means patience is needed.

 

Can it not go both ways though? Gunnar and cowser figured it out in the majors, but Jackson clearly has made some adjustments and it’s not like going down to the minors hurt him. There are probably instances where either approach is either needed or could work, some of which is based on team needs at that time. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Can it not go both ways though? Gunnar and cowser figured it out in the majors, but Jackson clearly has made some adjustments and it’s not like going down to the minors hurt him. There are probably instances where either approach is either needed or could work, some of which is based on team needs at that time. 

But you had people writing these guys off. I am already seeing people around social media saying Mayo doesn’t have it. He’s not a MLer.

We saw people jump to the conclusion that Holliday was no longer going to be the player we thought he would be and that he should be the guy we look to trade. I know some were looking at it from a roster perspective but not all were.

The jump to conclusions mat is being worn out with these young players. You have to give them appropriate time to learn and adjust. People just have these assumptions that players are who they are immediately or that they can’t improve or that improvement will be minimal. Development isn’t linear. No matter how talented you are, you don’t always develop at the same speed as others.  Or you ignore certain aspects of your game or you are playing with an injury or the team is asking you change things. There are so many different factors and coming to those types of conclusions so early are completely over the top.

And again, I’m not just talking about this site. There is some of that here but not as much as elsewhere in social media land.