Some 9x stats

[Frobby]

The season is exactly 1/9 over, so you can just multiply any cumulative stat by 9 to see how it projects over a full season.  That results in the O’s protecting to 108 wins, scoring 936 runs (+129 over last year) while allowing 693 (+15 over last year).   

On an individual level:

Gunnar 117 runs, 135 RBI, 54 HR, 8.1 rWAR

Westburg 99 runs, 126 RBI, 36 HR, 9.0 rWAR

Mullins 126 runs, 135 RBI, 45 HR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 99 runs, 135 RBI, 36 HR, -0.9 rWAR (!)

Cowser 72 runs, 135 RBI, 36 HR, 9.9 rWAR

Mountcastle and O’Hearn also are projecting out to 6.3 rWAR, and Adley 4.5.

Some folks may remember that last year I posted a thread where I was tracking WAR and other stats every 18 games.  Going back, we never had an offensive segment last season with as many good performances as this last one.  (I am planning a similar thread this season, but in 27 game segments, as 18 just seemed a little too frequent.)

[Malike]

I got a pretty decent chuckle out of Santander's rWAR. Gave me Tony Batista flashbacks.

Edited April 18 by Malike

[HowAboutThat]

I just read an article at MLBTraderumors about the current Rule 5 guys, and in mentioning past Rule 5 successes, Steve Adams ignored Tony Taters… shame on him!

On the flip side, poor Jackson Holliday is projected for 9 singles and damn little else.

Edited April 18 by Philip

[BRobinsonfan]

I like this game!

Grayson Rodriguez 27 Wins 216 IP 243 SO

Corbin Burnes 18 Wins 208.8 225 SO

Craig Kimbrel 72 IP 45 SV 126 SO

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I like this game!

Grayson Rodriguez 27 Wins 216 IP 243 SO

Corbin Burnes 18 Wins 208.8 225 SO

Craig Kimbrel 72 IP 45 SV 126 SO

It's all fun and games until:

Jackson Holliday: .077/.040/.117 36 runs 9 RBI 9 H 9 BB 225 Ks (-) 3.6 rWAR

Austin Hays: .136/.073/.210 18 Runs 18 RBI 27 H 27 BB 199 Ks (-) 9 rWAR

Edited April 18 by Pickles

[harp6]

After the Pittsburgh series, the O's were 5-4 and I told my wife that besides the first 2 games, many of the players in the line-up haven't started hitting well, yet.  I said, "Just wait until all the players in the line-up wake up."  Well, they were wide awake for the next nine games.  Hopefully, this continues.

[OrangeRocks]

I'm projected to attend 0 games this year.

[harp6]

11 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I like this game!

Grayson Rodriguez 27 Wins 216 IP 243 SO

Corbin Burnes 18 Wins 208.8 225 SO

Craig Kimbrel 72 IP 45 SV 126 SO

Don't forget about Kimbrel's 27 wins and 0 losses as a reliever.

[Just Regular]

The consecutive 3 HR games streak has the Team ISO at .201.

wRC+ by Bats is third to ATL-HOU.     The Astros maybe feel like the 2024 championship season doesn't officially begin until Justin Verlander's personal opening day in DC tomorrow.

[Hallas]

Just my 2 cents, but I like the 1/9.  The 10-game intervals was a little too frequent, but 18 games seems like a decent enough sample size to get some rough trends.

 

And holy crap we have 4/9 guys in our lineup that are hotter than the Sun.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The season is exactly 1/9 over, so you can just multiply any cumulative stat by 9 to see how it projects over a full season.  That results in the O’s protecting to 108 wins, scoring 936 runs (+129 over last year) while allowing 693 (+15 over last year).   

On an individual level:

Gunnar 117 runs, 135 RBI, 54 HR, 8.1 rWAR

Westburg 99 runs, 126 RBI, 36 HR, 9.0 rWAR

Mullins 126 runs, 135 RBI, 45 HR, 8.1 rWAR

Santander 99 runs, 135 RBI, 36 HR, -0.9 rWAR (!)

Cowser 72 runs, 135 RBI, 36 HR, 9.9 rWAR

Mountcastle and O’Hearn also are projecting out to 6.3 rWAR, and Adley 4.5.

Some folks may remember that last year I posted a thread where I was tracking WAR and other stats every 18 games.  Going back, we never had an offensive segment last season with as many good performances as this last one.  (I am planning a similar thread this season, but in 27 game segments, as 18 just seemed a little too frequent.)

I'll be the pedantic one and point out that it's not really a projection to multiply 1/9th of the season by nine and come up with a full season's performance. Because 1/9th of the season is almost certainly not representative of the talent or expected performance of the players in question. 

To get a true projection you should take a little less than 8/9ths of your preseason projection, add in what they've done since opening day, and then toss in the little bit of additional knowledge we've gotten from the past 18 games.

If you thought Jordan Westburg was a 2.5-win player on opening day, it's probably reasonable to think he's a 2.7 win player today.

Edited April 18 by DrungoHazewood

[Bahama O's Fan]

So, what's our total team WAR now and what does it project to? 

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Just my 2 cents, but I like the 1/9.  The 10-game intervals was a little too frequent, but 18 games seems like a decent enough sample size to get some rough trends.

Friendly reminder that even the quickest numbers to show significance like strikeout and FB rates take 60-100 at bats to become more signal than noise. And things like SLG and OBP take the better part of half a season before you can start trusting them. Batting average is well over the number of PAs anyone has ever gotten in a season.

Drungo's First Rule (or at least some rule of mine): Never trust anything before Memorial Day. And don't get too comfortable until well after July 4th.

[spleen1015]

Does Cowser win ROY with 9.9 rWAR?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

So, what's our total team WAR now and what does it project to? 

A reasonable opening day projection for the Orioles was probably 92ish wins, or about 44 WAR. Starting 12-6 you could reasonably assume that their EOY projection is something like 93 or 94 wins. 

Baseball reference says the team WAR is currently 6.2. So that would work out to something in the neighborhood of 40 for the rest of the schedule.