Some 9x stats

[Bahama O's Fan]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war?lg=&teamid=2

If I use this site and do some simple addition and subtraction, I get 6.9WAR for this season so far, which projects to 62.1 WAR for the season. A 0.0 WAR (a replacement team) would win 52 games. This puts on on pace for 114 wins. Hope that math is correct.

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

A reasonable opening day projection for the Orioles was probably 92ish wins, or about 44 WAR. Starting 12-6 you could reasonably assume that their EOY projection is something like 93 or 94 wins. 

Baseball reference says the team WAR is currently 6.2. So that would work out to something in the neighborhood of 40 for the rest of the schedule.

Thanks. I think my math is off somewhere. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:

Does Cowser win ROY with 9.9 rWAR?

He'd be in the running for unanimous MVP.  Mike Trout in 2012 is the only rookie to ever have gotten to 10 rWAR, and he didn't win the MVP only becuase a bunch of writers got all weak-kneed about Cabrera's triple crown. 2nd in all time rookie WAR is Dick Allen's 8.8 in '64, followed by Judge's 8.0 in '17.

Fred Lynn won the MVP and ROY in '75 with a 7.4-win season.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Thanks. I think my math is off somewhere. 

Replacement level is typically set at a .294 winning percentage, or 47-48 wins. And I certainly wouldn't just mulitiply 6.2 x 9 to get the full season projection. 

[spleen1015]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

He'd be in the running for unanimous MVP.  Mike Trout in 2012 is the only rookie to ever have gotten to 10 rWAR, and he didn't win the MVP only becuase a bunch of writers got all weak-kneed about Cabrera's triple crown. 2nd in all time rookie WAR is Dick Allen's 8.8 in '64, followed by Judge's 8.0 in '17.

Fred Lynn won the MVP and ROY in '75 with a 7.4-win season.

Yeah baby! Colton Fred Cowser Lynn!

[CallMeBrooksie]

7 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Does Cowser win ROY with 9.9 rWAR?

If you roster a Rookie all year who wins MVP, the club acquires every 1st round pick from your division rivals in next year's draft. Oft-overlooked rule in the most recent CBA.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, spleen1015 said:

Yeah baby! Colton Fred Cowser Lynn!

Of course Cowser's rest-of-the-season ZIPs forecast is for 1.7 WAR, for a total of 2.9. I could be convinced that's under-selling him. But it's almost certainly more realistic than 10.

[Hallas]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Friendly reminder that even the quickest numbers to show significance like strikeout and FB rates take 60-100 at bats to become more signal than noise. And things like SLG and OBP take the better part of half a season before you can start trusting them. Batting average is well over the number of PAs anyone has ever gotten in a season.

Drungo's First Rule (or at least some rule of mine): Never trust anything before Memorial Day. And don't get too comfortable until well after July 4th.

So things like swing rate, swinging strike rate, FB rate/GB rate get to an r^2 >= .5 like 60 PAs, and EV and launch angle in around 40 batted balls.  We're a hair short, but not that much.  Like I said, it's enough for some rough trends.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll be the pedantic one and point out that it's not really a projection to multiply 1/9th of the season by nine and come up with a full season's performance. Because 1/9th of the season is almost certainly not representative of the talent or expected performance of the players in question. 

To get a true projection you should take a little less than 8/9ths of your preseason projection, add in what they've done since opening day, and then toss in the little bit of additional knowledge we've gotten from the past 18 games.

If you thought Jordan Westburg was a 2.5-win player on opening day, it's probably reasonable to think he's a 2.7 win player today.

My, that is pedantic. Multiplying by nine is much easier and more fun than doing all that boring stuff.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My, that is pedantic. Multiplying by nine is much easier and more fun than doing all that boring stuff.

It also has the unfortunate downside of not projecting the Orioles to win 108 games, like your Times Nine model.

[Three Run Homer]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My, that is pedantic. Multiplying by nine is much easier and more fun than doing all that boring stuff.

If he really wanted to be pedantic he would have talked about priors, posteriors and Bayes' Law.  I credit him for translating Bayesian updating into English.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It also has the unfortunate downside of not projecting the Orioles to win 108 games, like your Times Nine model.

So clearly mine is better.  

[Moose Milligan]

37 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Drungo's First Rule (or at least some rule of mine): Never trust anything before Memorial Day.  

Everyone should heed this rule, unless we're talking about Jackson Holliday.  And then it's out the window.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Drungo's First Rule (or at least some rule of mine): Never trust anything before Memorial Day. And don't get too comfortable until well after July 4th.

I have been known to follow that rule myself.  Though to be honest, a better rule might be never trust anything ever. We’ve seen promising May/June stats go south plenty of times, as well as guys who dug themselves out of huge holes.  

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

It's all fun and games until:

Jackson Holliday: .077/.040/.117 36 runs 9 RBI 9 H 9 BB 225 Ks (-) 3.6 rWAR

Austin Hays: .136/.073/.210 18 Runs 18 RBI 27 H 27 BB 199 Ks (-) 9 rWAR

That's almost a Sisco for Holliday.