Tracking the Orioles' position players by 27-game segments

[Frobby]

Some of you will recall the thread I did last year tracking the Orioles' position players by 18-game segments.   I'm doing something similar this year, but I decided that 18-game segments were a bit too short, so I'm using 27-game segments this year, dividing the season into sixths.  The data I'm tracking appears on the chart below:

Name	PA	rWAR	Rdrs	OPS	fWAR	OAA	wOBA	xwOBA
Rutschman	119	1.2	2	0.816	0.9	1.2	0.361	0.383
Mountcastle	103	1.1	1	0.906	0.6	-3	0.393	0.395
Henderson	124	1.8	0	0.959	1.9	2	0.408	0.389
Westburg	101	1.4	1	0.903	1.3	1	0.394	0.422
Cowser	80	1.0	0	1.037	1.4	3	0.439	0.390
Mullins	100	0.7	1	0.717	0.7	2	0.311	0.304
Santander	113	0.3	0	0.728	0.3	1	0.319	0.302
O'Hearn	71	0.7	0	0.929	0.7	0	0.403	0.502
Hays	50	-0.8	-1	0.311	-0.7	-1	0.149	0.286
Urias	44	-0.1	0	0.484	-0.3	-1	0.215	0.214
McCann	43	0.0	-1	0.651	0.0	-0.3	0.284	0.323
Mateo	39	0.3	0	0.733	0.3	-1	0.328	0.292
Holliday	36	-0.5	-1	0.170	-0.3	3	0.089	0.155
Kjerstad	5	-0.1	0	0.000	-0.1	0	0.000	0.057
McKenna	1	0.1	0	2.000	0.0	0	1.000	0.281

It was quite a first segment, with five players (Henderson, Westburg, Rutschman, Mountcastle and Cowser) tracking at 1.0 rWAR or better for the segment, and three (Henderson, Cowser, Westburg) tracking at 1.0 fWAR or better.   Four players (Hays, Holliday, Urias, Kjerstad) were in negative territory, but the positives way outweigh the negatives.  Not coincidentally, the O's went 17-10 during the segment.

Looking at wOBA vs. xwOBA, the ridiculous stat is that even at .403 wOBA (3rd best on the team), Ryan O'Hearn is underperforming his xwOBA by 99 points.   He's just been hitting the ball on the nose at a ridiculous rate.

On defense, there are some major disagreements between Rdrs (which feeds into rWAR) and OAA (which feeds into fWAR).  Rdrs rates Mountcastle at +1 while OAA has him at -3; Holliday is at -1 Rdrs and +3 OAA; and Cowser is at 0 Rdrs and +3 OAA.   I must say, my "eye test" is more in agreement with Rdrs than OAA in all three cases.  (Note: there is no OAA for catchers, so I'm using Fangraphs' overall defense metric there for Rutschman and McCann.)

It will be interesting to follow the ups and downs of the players as the season progresses.

 

Edited April 30 by Frobby

[interloper]

You have to love how Mounty has played so far. Quietly producing amidst the more hyped players, and he's on track for a gold glove IMO. It's Mountcastle, so things could change quickly, but it's been a pleasure to watch him.

Santander needs to figure something out. Mullins is a bit of an issue as well, but he's overall a positive player due to his defense. 

[Warehouse]

O’Hearn’s chase rate was 30% each year from 2021-2023 and has been 18% this year.  He’s hitting the ball harder and more in the air.  His xOPS is 1.197 per statcast (sum of xOBP and xSLG from statcast search).  He has the highest xwOBA and xOPS among players with at least 10 PAs this year.

I do think it’s fair to wonder whether O’Hearn should get more chances vs lefties.
 

 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Warehouse said:

O’Hearn’s chase rate was 30% each year from 2021-2023 and has been 18% this year.  He’s hitting the ball harder and more in the air.  His xOPS is 1.197 per statcast (sum of xOBP and xSLG from statcast search).  He has the highest xwOBA and xOPS among players with at least 10 PAs this year.

I do think it’s fair to wonder whether O’Hearn should get more chances vs lefties.
 

 

Hyde has been slowwwwly leaving him in there more against lefty relievers late in games. We saw it last night and maybe a couple other times this season. I mean when your PH options are McKenna, Mateo, Urias, and the backup catcher, you might as well leave O'Hearn in there to see if he runs into one. 

[waroriole]

The counting stats are fun so far with this group. 6 guys on pace for 100+ RBI. Gunnar on pace for 138. 8 guys on pace for 24+ HR. Gunnar on pace for 60. Gunnar is also on pace for 150 runs scored. 

[ChosenOne21]

24 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hyde has been slowwwwly leaving him in there more against lefty relievers late in games. We saw it last night and maybe a couple other times this season. I mean when your PH options are McKenna, Mateo, Urias, and the backup catcher, you might as well leave O'Hearn in there to see if he runs into one. 

This is interesting to me because I remember last year I looked at O'Hearn's numbers vs. LHP and found that he actually hit LH starters fine for his career but was basically helpless against LH relievers. Sample sizes were of course small, but not totally miniscule.

[G54377]

Ryan Mckenna 2.000 OPS 

[sportsfan8703]

It really sheds light on just how good of a start O’Hearn is off too. It’s going to be tough to find big Heston ABs until next season when Santa leaves.

As expected the 12th and 13th position player spots were the only real negatives. We need more production from whoever is the 9th starter be it Urias for now or Holliday/Mayo in the future. Maybe some Mateo in the mix.