On MLB just now the host were asking what should Baltimore give up to get Miller from the A's

[Malike]

He might win Rookie of the Year in the AL. I doubt they are doing a 1:1 if they trade him at all, which I also doubt.

[Bemorewins]

Miller is the best reliever that will be able to acquire (if available). But he is not the only good reliever that will be out there.

I know some/many on this board don’t want to part with prospect talent and I get that. But given how value Miller is (huh leverage reliever with dominant stuff and 5 years of control following this season) you are going to have to exchange value for value in order to acquire him.

So far this regular season (and it is still early) we have seen that the Orioles possess a very strong team who appears to have legit designs on an AL pennant and possibly WS winner. How much is giving ourselves the best odds at that worth?

If the O’s had a competent closer we would have the best record in MLB. But Kimbrel has blown games at an unacceptable rate. And a few of his saves he almost blew including (2 against the Angels). Some wanted to use as a rationale, “he just needs more rest. He can’t pitch in back to back appearances, etc.” But we are seeing the signs of a guy at the end of his very successful career. He’s just not very reliable.

I don’t know how any fan/person who is realistic would be comfortable trusting Kimbrel (given what you have seen) to get us through several rounds of the postseason. There are bound to be several tight games/bullpen battles and you need someone who is lockdown, whether that is Miller or not. The rest of the roster is simply too good to leave it’s fate in the hands of a has been like Kimbrel.

[btdart20]

How much does Elias really value years of control for pitchers?  I doubt it's anywhere near as much as networks make us think.  Top end talent?  Sure.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

How much does Elias really value years of control for pitchers?  I doubt it's anywhere near as much as networks make us think.  Top end talent?  Sure.

Well with Miller you get both.

IMO if he makes it through this year (given his projectable performance with absolute elite stuff) and next year when Felix is back, before his arm blows up, that’s enough.

That might be 1/2 championships. IMO none of those 3 prospects mentioned (top ones not named Holliday) is worth 1/2 World Series. Because in truth I simply cannot see us winning a pennant let alone a WS with Craig Kimbrel closing games in the postseason. At this point in his career, he is no longer a lock down reliever. And you are going to need that at some point in the Fall.

I’m not saying that we need a pen as good as the Yanks (likely our closest competitor in the AL) but we do need the talent at the backend to give ourselves a reasonable chance if we get into a bullpen battle in the playoffs.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well if you told me that he will be elite level high leverage reliever for the next 5 years, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Kjerstad for him. That’s extremely valuable in todays game.

What if I told you that he's going to be an elite high-level reliever for three of the next five years, but also out with a torn UCL for 18 months, and sort of hurt/rehabbing/not very effective for the other six months?

To me that's the mostly likely case, although the exact time periods could change.

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Well with Miller you get both.

IMO if he makes it through this year (given his projectable performance with absolute elite stuff) and next year when Felix is back, before his arm blows up, that’s enough.

That might be 1/2 championships. IMO none of those 3 prospects mentioned (top ones not named Holliday) is worth 1/2 World Series. Because in truth I simply cannot see us winning a pennant let alone a WS with Craig Kimbrel closing games in the postseason. At this point in his career, he is no longer a lock down reliever. And you are going to need that at some point in the Fall.

I’m not saying that we need a pen as good as the Yanks (likely our closest competitor in the AL) but we do need the talent at the backend to give ourselves a reasonable chance if we get into a bullpen battle in the playoffs.

Miller isn't the only reliever in the world. And any one player is no more than a piece of a contribution to a potential title. If the O's have a 8% chance at winning the Series right now (or 92% chance of not, which is actually very good), the addition of Miller and subtraction of whatever it takes to get him might make that 8.5%.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Miller isn't the only reliever in the world. And any one player is no more than a piece of a contribution to a potential title. If the O's have a 8% chance at winning the Series right now (or 92% chance of not, which is actually very good), the addition of Miller and subtraction of whatever it takes to get him might make that 8.5%.

That’s a no brainer that Mason Miller “isn’t the only reliever in the world”. Nor is he the only good reliever that will be available at the deadline (if he’s even available). But he will be the best one that we can acquire.

I don’t know how those percentages that you listed get calculated. But what I do know is that the closer on our current team is a significant weakness/liability. And he really is the only hole on the team.

I would hate to allow one single substandard player to drag down/hold back a team that overall is this good (especially when we have an overabundance of Minor League position player talent along with a tremendous amount of young Major Leaguers).

[Just Regular]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, it’s possible Miller goes back to starting.  That is, I believe, Oakland’s plan for him long term. 

Mason Miller and David Forst have said as much in interviews I've seen this spring, but the Red Sox probably said the same stuff about Papelbon back in the day.

Sigbot first wants to see if he's healthy after the MLB draft.   

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What if I told you that he's going to be an elite high-level reliever for three of the next five years, but also out with a torn UCL for 18 months, and sort of hurt/rehabbing/not very effective for the other six months?

To me that's the mostly likely case, although the exact time periods could change.

If the trade was for Kjerstad I could live with that.

Right now our lineup/offense is fine and we are having a hard time finding ABs for the 25 year old (now entering his prime) Kjerstad.

If we were to lose Kjerstad, next year Mayo could slot into right to replace Santander and we could pick up the option of O’Hearn at a reasonable 7.5 million. 

By 2026, Basallo could take the 1B/DH/back up C role and get regular ABs.

Also during that time IF (and that is a big if) Miller’s arm holds up, we have an unbelievable weapon at the back end of our bp to sure the only flaw/weakness in the 2024 team. And then you are pairing him with Bautista in 2025 to form the best back end in the game. 

I’m fine with the trade off. You can’t hit the shots that you don’t take. And I am not in favoring of hedging any longer to increase possible future odds. What we have in the present is too important to pass up IMO.

[Just Regular]

9 hours ago, Malike said:

He might win Rookie of the Year in the AL. I doubt they are doing a 1:1 if they trade him at all, which I also doubt.

I've thought about him as Cowser competition too, but he got MLB IL time and is far above 45 days of service.    I'm not sure how the CBA classifies him for the incentives.

I think if the season ended today he'd beat Cowser easy in the voting, if he is in the race.

[Explosivo]

Honest question, what is it about Miller that makes him get accolades like this? He’s good, sure, but he’s not worth anywhere close to what these guys were talking about. Like, there are other relievers who could arguably achieve similar results. Its just odd to me that he’s such the flavor of the month right now.

[Just Regular]

Felix Bautista, Spencer Strider, Grayson Rodriguez, Mason Miller - I'm sure SIgbot is skeptical of the long term, and thinking as scientifically as it can how to protect that precious asset.

One recent action is a prompt IL stint when a pitcher aged 24.4 exceeded 100 pitches in a MLB game for the 2nd time in their career.    Fellow Texans Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Josh Beckett and Kerry Wood perhaps never experienced inflammation like that in their day.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Mason Miller and David Forst have said as much in interviews I've seen this spring, but the Red Sox probably said the same stuff about Papelbon back in the day.

Sigbot first wants to see if he's healthy after the MLB draft.   

I think this is unlikely. How often do you see successful closers transition back to the rotation? How often does that succeed? You often see starters move to the pen, but the other way? Very unusual. 

I'm trying to think of an example in the last 30-40 years... there were some in the 80s-90s. Like David Wells, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe. Smoltz moved to the pen and back after an injury. But very infrequent in the last 20-30 years. Jeff Samardzija, I guess. 

I have my doubts that someone who throws 103 is going to be more valuable/healthy going five innings every five days, and probably having to throw a wider variety of pitches and maybe try to not throw as hard.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

Honest question, what is it about Miller that makes him get accolades like this? He’s good, sure, but he’s not worth anywhere close to what these guys were talking about. Like, there are other relievers who could arguably achieve similar results. Its just odd to me that he’s such the flavor of the month right now.

Miller is 2023 Felix Bautista with better control.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

Honest question, what is it about Miller that makes him get accolades like this? He’s good, sure, but he’s not worth anywhere close to what these guys were talking about. Like, there are other relievers who could arguably achieve similar results. Its just odd to me that he’s such the flavor of the month right now.

If that’s your opinion, cool.

But what I see is Felix Bautista like electric stuff. You can’t just go anywhere and fine 103 with good command. Did you see him blow away Soto and Henderson in the same week? He has the kind of stuff that unless he makes a mistake and the ball finds the bat path, you don’t hit him (regardless of the batter). 

Question - Can you name all the other relievers who can do what he does? (103 with good command)