The Main Issue With The Orioles Offense and Approach is its Veteran Hitters - It's Time to Make Changes

[spiritof66]

45 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mullins and Santander are too valuable when healthy to be demoted. I think you are underrating defense and likely overestimating the ability of rookies impacting right away. Playing a bunch of rookies at new positions would probably cause us a bunch of new frustrations. 

I would like to see Stowers mixed in more but we shouldn't get rid of anyone yet. I do think anyone who isn't healthy should go on the IL--maybe Santander? 

 

That's right. You have to expect that it's going to take some time, both for these guys to hit ML pitching and to be able to decide  whether they're going to be able to hit ML pitching. But the question is: when do you give any of Holliday, Stowers, Mayo, Heston and Norby a chance to play regularly with the Orioles, and exercise some patience while some or all of them struggle, look helpless at times, and make adjustments? My guess is that more of that might have happened last season, but the Orioles got competitive faster than Elias expected. Now it's hard, for me anyway, to see what the timing will be. 

One other thing: I think you're asking for trouble if you don't have some speed and skill in LF and CF at Camden Yards. The Orioles have painted themselves into a bit of a corner by having only Mullins to bring those qualities to CF until Bradfield is ready, if he ever is (OPSing .707 at Aberdeen) or they make a trade, which is not gonna happen. When you use your highest choices to draft the best non-pitcher available, regardless of position, you can create the holes. Again, I don't know what the plan is.

[waroriole]

I mean I didn’t read all that but I generally agree. They overly rely on underperforming veterans at all times. Whether it’s Stowers or Kjerstad or Cowser or Holliday, they don’t give you much opportunity to succeed. You either do it right away or you rot on the bench. The unwillingness to work guys into the lineup is really frustrating. Whoever is responsible for the lineups needs a lot of work. 

[waroriole]

58 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mullins and Santander are too valuable when healthy to be demoted. I think you are underrating defense and likely overestimating the ability of rookies impacting right away. Playing a bunch of rookies at new positions would probably cause us a bunch of new frustrations. 

I would like to see Stowers mixed in more but we shouldn't get rid of anyone yet. I do think anyone who isn't healthy should go on the IL--maybe Santander? 

 

Why would anyone need to be sent down or traded? Just rotate players into the lineup. It’s not hard to figure out. 

[Fiver6565]

They way people just dismiss the expertise of the people that have been running this franchise for the last two years as the team has accumulated the best record in the American League in that span, never ceases to amaze me.  Good thing we have the OP and many, many other posters to solve all these issues with the team that the incredibly successful management team haven't been able to.

Would I like to see an lineup adjustment or two?  Sure.  Are wholesale changes suddenly needed right now?  Absolutely not.  Is the idea of placing 3-4 more rookies in the lineup on a regular basis at all realistic or even likely to help?  Absolutely not.

All of you should just change your screen names to Chicken Little.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Why would anyone need to be sent down or traded? Just rotate players into the lineup. It’s not hard to figure out. 

The roster is limited to 26 guys and it's currently full. I guess you could get rid of Urias but I'd you want five OF we already have five: Mullins, Cowser, Santander, Hays, Stowers. If you call up Kjerstad someone has to go. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

We're at a point in the season where there's enough of a sample size to make some meaningful observations, and it's clear to me that the main issue of this year's Orioles team is the offense, specifically the team's inability to get on base, and the team's over-reliance on solo home runs to generate a bulk of its run production. Even more specifically, the team's veterans are the root of the offensive problem, and it's time to address the problem with roster changes and playing time adjustments.

 

As of today, the following are Orioles hitters on the current roster with an OBP below .300 in order of most at bats to least at bats:

 

Anthony Santander - .283

Ryan Mountcastle - .296

Cedric Mullins - .242

Jorge Mateo - .292

Brian McCann - .208

Austin Hays - .221

Ramon Urias - .226

 

Quite literally all of this team's underperforming hitters are the veterans with more than 3 years of MLB experience - Ryan O'Hearn (.349 OBP) is the only veteran hitter on the team with an OBP above .300. And O'Hearn hasn't been anything special at the plate recently, as he's produced a mediocre .641 OPS over the past 15 days. At his peak on April 16, O'Hearn stood at .333 AVG / .400 OBP / 1.089 OPS. His line is now .276 / .349 / .823 OPS, so to sink to that line, O'Hearn has hit poorly over the course of the past 5 weeks. 

 

All those hitters slumping and not working counts and drawing walks is directly responsible for our offensive slump recently, and it's why the team's offense is way too one-dimensional - relying mostly on solo home runs to win games. 

 

During the offseason, I took issue with Mike Elias keeping O'Hearn on this year's team because O'Hearn would be blocking multiple prospects such as Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and Kyle Stowers at the DH spot. A more specific discussion on O'Hearn is better left for another thread, but it's a good place to mention that a solution to this offense's issues is to start significantly cutting playing time for the veterans, and give this team's prospects (specifically Kjerstad, Stowers, and Norby until Mayo is healthy) more of a legitimate opportunity for regular playing time. And to be clear, I'm not blaming O'Hearn specifically for the team's offensive struggles. He's clearly been one of the team's best hitters thus far and he uses an approach at the plate I wish more of the struggling older hitters would take a page from. But I do strongly believe Mike Elias shouldn't have brought him back this season because the team already had a logjam with its hitting prospects.

 

Moving onto the team's management, the way Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde handled Heston Kjerstad during his MLB stint this season was absolutely terrible. It was irresponsible to call up an elite power bat prospect (who was ripping up AAA pitching at the time) such as Kjerstad and have a player like that sit on the bench and rot, relegated to very irregular starts and pinch-hitting. Elias and Hyde are now making the same irresponsible mistake with Kyle Stowers, but it's time to start making some adjustments and learn from those roster management and player development errors. Play the young prospects.

 

I'd like to see Elias call up Kjerstad and Norby immediately, and relegate Mullins and Hays to strictly bench defensive outfield roles. Anthony Santander should also be platooned more and start seeing fewer at bats until he comes out of his slump (if he ever does), as he's had pronounced L/R splits this season. Santander has no future on this team past this season, so there's more incentive to cut his playing time in favor of a prospect who fits more into the long-term plans with this organization (or who can help build trade value for needed assets at the trade deadline).

 

Colton Cowser can slide over to CF and play there every day, while Kjerstad can be installed as the new everyday LF with Kyle Stowers getting regular at bats in RF against righties and some lefties. Connor Norby can get at bats as the DH against LHP whenever Adley isn't DHing, and Norby can also split some time in RF with Santander against LHP.

 

The O's will be sacrificing defense to do this, but Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde have never truly valued defense - they just claim to value it. Otherwise, they would have never stuck with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier - two of the worst defensive 2B in baseball - for entire seasons. And they wouldn't let Ryan O'Hearn ever see the outfield, but they do. 

 

Most of the time, there's a defensive and offensive tradeoff for players. In this team's case, the offensive upside of our prospects warrant a look despite their defensive shortcomings. And the defensive value of the veterans (specifically Mullins and Hays) quite simply do not justify the cost of their abysmal offensive production. 

 

I believe strongly that Mullins and Hays are done as productive regulars, and if that's not the case, they can prove it in limited roles while Elias and Hyde get a look at players that are much more likely to be part of this team's future (or also possibly enhance their value as trade chips in certain cases). 

 

The younger players on this team have carried it offensively, and the MLB-ready prospects currently in the minors along with Stowers should get a long look to see if they can improve the offense's shortcomings and turn it into a truly elite offense. Giving regular reps to Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers, and eventually Mayo will also help them get acclimated to MLB pitching sooner, and put them in a better position to help the team in the playoffs.

 

I hope to see Elias make some significant changes soon, and have Hyde move away from the vets. This team is sorely in need of it.

One of the best posts I have ever read on this forum.  Dead serious.  You nailed everything.  I said this last year in my the O's will not win the WS in 2023 post but many here took exception to that.  But your post?  10/10 and everything that you have said is exactly what I have been saying for over a year now.

And it simply comes down to this.  Mullins, Hayes, Urias, O'Hearn, Tony, and others are not going to win you a WS championship.  That is beyond obvious at this point.

So why IN THE H e 11 are we playing them?  I would so much rather play the youngsters and give them a chance because guess what.....we don't know if they can help win the O's a WS championship.   They could.  They could not.  But at least there is a chance.  And I would play younger guys that have a chance over guys like the old vets who have SAWKED for over a year now and who cost 10 x more. 

 

I am not really sure why this is even an issue at this point.   We seem to be the only organization in the history of baseball that would rather play old middling vets (who you have to pay more money to btw), over youngsters with way more potential and who cost much less.

 

It is bizarre. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

That's why I want to see the changes made soon the team can't wait until August and then tell a bunch of rookies to step up in a pennant race.

Bingo.  Another thing I have harped on.  You expect young guns from AAA to just step up and produce right away?  Not everyone is Manny Machado.

The way management has handled the youngsters has been had.  I would rather play .500 ball or a little above while getting those guys experience than to play the vets who suck, who can't win us a WS, and then call up the youngsters and expect them to play lights out with no experience.

It's crazy. 

The funny thing is they call up JH who is 20, and yet leave guys in the minors who are 24 and who have way more experience.

It almost seems as if they know how to draft the right guys, but they don't know how to grow the right guys.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Bingo.  Another thing I have harped on.  You expect young guns from AAA to just step up and produce right away?  Not everyone is Manny Machado.

The way management has handled the youngsters has been had.  I would rather play .500 ball or a little above while getting those guys experience than to play the vets who suck, who can't win us a WS, and then call up the youngsters and expect them to play lights out with no experience.

It's crazy. 

The funny thing is they call up JH who is 20, and yet leave guys in the minors who are 24 and who have way more experience.

It almost seems as if they know how to draft the right guys, but they don't know how to grow the right guys.

Machado's rookie year he had an OPS+ of 98.

[OnlyOneOriole]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

We have so many people who are much more qualified to lead this team on this board than Elias and Hyde. There is a real untapped resource for MLB here, they could replace most of the front offices and managers with posters in this thread alone and be much better off for it. Someone should leak the news to MLB.

Every teams fans whine about the manager and front office, even more so when they lose a few games.

I see the same thing said about Chris Ballard with the Colts.  Staunch defenders of his very conservative approach to building the team.  Meanwhile they haven't won a division since he has been GM......8 years.  This coming after a team that won their division 8 of the prior 10 years.

 

At some point, people can see what people can see.   Ballard is great at drafting but too conservative when it comes to FA and relies too much on homegrown talent.  Elias is great at drafting but too conservative when it comes to promoting players and relying on vets who he signs off of the scrap heap.

One and the same and the bottom line between the 2 of them neither has won anything in a combined 14 years.

[OnlyOneOriole]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Machado's rookie year he had an OPS+ of 98.

He was a huge spark as soon as he was called up.  Not just huge.  Gigantic.

 

If you deny that than you are just a troll and should discontinue posting on this forum. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

He was a huge spark as soon as he was called up.  Not just huge.  Gigantic.

 

If you deny that than you are just a troll and should discontinue posting on this forum. 

Do you consider an OPS+ of 98 "producing"?

Is Santander "producing" (101 OPS+)?

Being a "huge spark" and "producing" aren't the same thing.

Do you think the likes of Stowers, Norby and Kjerstad are going to give the team a spark on defense?

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you consider an OPS+ of 98 "producing"?

Is Santander "producing" (101 OPS+)?

Being a "huge spark" and "producing" aren't the same thing.

Do you think the likes of Stowers, Norby and Kjerstad are going to give the team a spark on defense?

Look bro, if you are going to sit here and argue with me that Manny, as soon as he was called up.... as in the first game he played, did not provide a monumental spark to the Os team that year and was instrumental in their late season success? 

Then you do you.  Believe what you want. i I cannot argue against a person who wants to compare people like Santander to a Manny Machado as far as value to a team.

IF you do not understand the value that MM brought to the team from the very first day that he was promoted?  Then you have obviously never played a sport in your life and rely strictly on 'stats'.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Look bro, if you are going to sit here and argue with me that Manny, as soon as he was called up.... as in the first game he played, did not provide a monumental spark to the Os team that year and was instrumental in their late season success? 

Then you do you.  Believe what you want. i I cannot argue against a person who wants to compare people like Santander to a Manny Machado as far as value to a team.

IF you do not understand the value that MM brought to the team from the very first day that he was promoted?  Then you have obviously never played a sport in your life and rely strictly on 'stats'.

 

I like how you just flatly refuse to actually answer any questions.

Oh wait I don't actually like that.

Manny solved a significant hole on defense when he was called up.

He's not a good comp for the bat first guys that Elias has stacked up at Norfolk.

Kjerstad isn't Manny.  The closest we got to Manny in the minors is the guy you most love to rip on.

 

[bpilktree]

37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The roster is limited to 26 guys and it's currently full. I guess you could get rid of Urias but I'd you want five OF we already have five: Mullins, Cowser, Santander, Hays, Stowers. If you call up Kjerstad someone has to go. 

That was my thought as well.  Yeah call everyone up but what are you gonna do just release Santander or Mullins.   As you said Urias can go I have no problem with that but then you don’t have much infield defense.  You have Mateo, Henderson, Westburg and a guy with a glove in Norby but his defense is not good in the infield and has played 30 of the 41 games as an outfielder and DH.  The OP post basically puts 3 guys to play 2nd SS, and 3rd with no subs.  With Holiday struggling, Mayo hurt like it or not Urias is pretty safe right now as they don’t see Norby as an infielder much anymore.  

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I like how you just flatly refuse to actually answer any questions.

Oh wait I don't actually like that.

Manny solved a significant hole on defense when he was called up.

He's not a good comp for the bat first guys that Elias has stacked up at Norfolk.

Kjerstad isn't Manny.  The closest we got to Manny in the minors is the guy you most love to rip on.

 

Yeah but I did answer the question.  You didn't.  I said that you are a guy that looks at stats as the be all and end all.  I am not.  I  look at how much a player can help a team just be 'playing'.  Manny did.  In  spades.   Period end of story. 

 

The closest we have had  to a Manny is Gunnar.  And I have said this repeatedly since last year.  They are both athletic and have that star "it" quality.   Hence why I bought 200 GH rookie cards the first day he was called up.     Which have all tripled btw. 

 

If you are referring to JH as far as me ripping on him?  I think he is going to be a very very good player.  His issues right now are all very fixable.   Should be very good for years to come.  But in no way shape or form is he anywhere close to the athlete that a Manny or a Gunnar is/was.  He just isn't.  Very good baseball player.  Not a super athlete.