The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, chipster22 said:

On close examination of Kjerstad today (July 7), I hope he is not part of any trade package. This kid is a bull, with power potential that is off the charts.  He runs surprisingly well and that throw to the plate from left was very impressive, if a bit high. I can see him planted in left field for a long time, perhaps in a platoon with Hays the rest of the year, but eventually full time if he proves able to hit southpaws.

I don’t think many/any want or are eager to get rid of any of our very talented young players/prospects.

However, I for one, am even less eager to see us roll with the pitching staff as is. The question/dilemma is what is the right amount of talent to acquire this year (and potentially beyond given the state of the rotation) to give us the best shot possible to be successful in October? And how to we balance that against our future potential/possibilities that some of the young players provide.

It’s a very precarious position that Elias is in.

We all hope that he makes great decisions that lead to both success now and in the future.

But I get where you are coming from Kjerstad seems to have an elite power tool as the ball seems to really carry off of his bat.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

IMHO it's not about whether Crochet is an "opener" or a reliever, it's the innings.  He's never thrown more than 65 innings (at college in 2019) in his entire college or pro career and stands at 105.1 today.  Let that sink in.  On top of that, there is Crochet's TJ surgery, where he missed all of 2022 and had multiple stints on the IL in 2023 as he was recovering, tossing a total of 25 IP.

Does any of this mean he cannot throw double (130 IP) or triple (195 IP) his prior max?  No one can say for certain, but I'd think any reasonable person would agree that, at the very least, it's a far riskier proposition for someone like Crochet than a pitcher who has been a starter and has thrown 150+ IP before. 

So, to recap:

• The most innings he's ever thrown was 65 IP in college (2019)
• After throwing 54 innings of relief for the White Sox in 2021, he missed all of 2022 with Tommy John surgery
• He followed up in 2023 by throwing a total of 25 innings of relief, as he dealt with a couple of IL stints recovering from TJ
• His first ever pro start came this season and he's been dynamite through 105.1 IP

Elias and Sig are well aware of the risks and it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

I still say crochet isn’t traded. It makes sense for Chicago to trade him but they could still get a ton for him in the offseason or at the deadline next year if things go right. I do not feel his value is at its peak right now BUT his value does risk to take a huge drop if they don’t trade him.

It’s not an easy spot to be in for anyone involved in this decision.

 

[sportsfan8703]

We tried to get Cease from them at the deadline, and then in the offseason. Cease was much less complicated because he didn’t have innings issues and hadn’t been a reliever. 

Now we have to make a trade with them with the complications of Crochet and expect not to trade one of Basallo, Mayo, and Holliday, plus. 

Yeah, that ain’t happening. Stick to the rentals of Scherzer and Kikuchi. I know it’s taboo to say this, but once you get passed those two SP, who really is that much better than Suarez?  Suarez has only given up 3 HR all year and has a 2.50 ERA. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

This won't be a popular take, but what pitchers are there around the league that teams could get away with paying cash considerations for?  I know they won't be the top line guys many want of this long thread, but there has to be some marginal improvement with some guys who may have some experience who could help us out. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

This won't be a popular take, but what pitchers are there around the league that teams could get away with paying cash considerations for?  I know they won't be the top line guys many want of this long thread, but there has to be some marginal improvement with some guys who may have some experience who could help us out. 

I’m not sure that I understand this line of thinking.

Why would the Orioles with a payroll as low as it is currently, a Major League team that is top notch, and a farm system that is this good; ever be shopping in “the cash considerations” isle?

[TopGunnar]

15 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

This won't be a popular take, but what pitchers are there around the league that teams could get away with paying cash considerations for?  I know they won't be the top line guys many want of this long thread, but there has to be some marginal improvement with some guys who may have some experience who could help us out. 

Could probably get a Buddy Groom type arm.

[Rbiggs2525]

We will be fine and Elias is negotiating. I personally like the idea of calling the Reds for Lodolo or Greene. Reasoning behind it is you could include Mountcastle and maybe Hays/Stowers. They need big league offense fast and Mounty would go in as there second best hitter immediately.

[RZNJ]

Sticking with realistic expectations.

1. Beavers and Luis Sanchez for Tanner Scott

Sanchez is 21 and can touch 100 but has more walks than innings at Aberdeen.

2. Bradfield for Carlos Estevez

Is Mike Trout still in CF 2-3 years from now?

 

3. Norby and Baumeister for Fedde

@Chicago White Sox  said he was good with either Beavers or Norby plus someone like Baumeister.   If I’m the WS I’d take Norby but whatever.

Obviously, these can be adjusted but hopefully you get the general point.  Sure up the rotation and a big upgrade to the bullpen.  No top 4 prospects used.  Povich, McDermott, Johnson all kept.   Fedde under control for 2025.

You have a playoff bullpen.  You have a rotation that can get you through the second half and make a push for the division title.

You don’t have an ace type pitcher for game #3 in the playoffs.   We have no idea if the ace type pitchers we’ve talked about (Skubal and Crochet) will be healthy or effective (both will be in innings territory they’ve never been in before) in October.

 

The above deals give the team a solid chance without much risk.  

[Just Regular]

I guess a ballpark Over/Under for Garrett Crochet's 2024 impact with the likely innings limit is Andrew Miller's 2014 impact.

[Safelykept]

28 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

We will be fine and Elias is negotiating. I personally like the idea of calling the Reds for Lodolo or Greene. Reasoning behind it is you could include Mountcastle and maybe Hays/Stowers. They need big league offense fast and Mounty would go in as there second best hitter immediately.

Those guys would cost who else, whos the headliner

[Birdland in NC]

10 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Tell me the cost and I would probably sign up. What about you Qauntrill, Scherzer and Yates and you got to keep all top 4 prospects?

I'd guess Basallo and Kjersted plus plus.  

[btdart20]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sticking with realistic expectations.

1. Beavers and Luis Sanchez for Tanner Scott

Sanchez is 21 and can touch 100 but has more walks than innings at Aberdeen.

2. Bradfield for Carlos Estevez

Is Mike Trout still in CF 2-3 years from now?

 

3. Norby and Baumeister for Fedde

@Chicago White Sox  said he was good with either Beavers or Norby plus someone like Baumeister.   If I’m the WS I’d take Norby but whatever.

Obviously, these can be adjusted but hopefully you get the general point.  Sure up the rotation and a big upgrade to the bullpen.  No top 4 prospects used.  Povich, McDermott, Johnson all kept.   Fedde under control for 2025.

You have a playoff bullpen.  You have a rotation that can get you through the second half and make a push for the division title.

You don’t have an ace type pitcher for game #3 in the playoffs.   We have no idea if the ace type pitchers we’ve talked about (Skubal and Crochet) will be healthy or effective (both will be in innings territory they’ve never been in before) in October.

 

The above deals give the team a solid chance without much risk.  

This is pretty reasonable. 

Scott might cost more due to market demands.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

This is pretty reasonable. 

Scott might cost more due to market demands.  

Very possible but it’s also very doable without the top 4 guys.

[interloper]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sticking with realistic expectations.

1. Beavers and Luis Sanchez for Tanner Scott

Sanchez is 21 and can touch 100 but has more walks than innings at Aberdeen.

2. Bradfield for Carlos Estevez

Is Mike Trout still in CF 2-3 years from now?

 

3. Norby and Baumeister for Fedde

@Chicago White Sox  said he was good with either Beavers or Norby plus someone like Baumeister.   If I’m the WS I’d take Norby but whatever.

Obviously, these can be adjusted but hopefully you get the general point.  Sure up the rotation and a big upgrade to the bullpen.  No top 4 prospects used.  Povich, McDermott, Johnson all kept.   Fedde under control for 2025.

You have a playoff bullpen.  You have a rotation that can get you through the second half and make a push for the division title.

You don’t have an ace type pitcher for game #3 in the playoffs.   We have no idea if the ace type pitchers we’ve talked about (Skubal and Crochet) will be healthy or effective (both will be in innings territory they’ve never been in before) in October.

 

The above deals give the team a solid chance without much risk.  

I like these a lot. Realistic and fair. Nice job!

[LGOrioles]

A SP that has been discussed that I’d be very interested in is Severino. His numbers are solid but what interests me is that he throws his best pitches (SL and sweeper) just over 20% of the time, which seems extremely low. His breaking balls have similar xwOBAS to Bradish’s last year with solid whiff rates as well. His overall whiff rate is very low, but a lot of that is due to throwing his sinker (arguably his worst pitch) nearly 30% of the time which only has a whiff rate of 13%. He could likely be a lot more effective with a tweak to his pitch usage. 

Edited July 8 by LGOrioles