The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Just Regular]

It raises the question whether Deyvison has played his way near (or past?) Cowser-Kjerstad level value.     The Marlins, not necessarily under Bendix, had been generally reputed to like loud tools over the years.

Any individual below Cowser-Kjerstad on Elias' value chain, I'd be doing cartwheels if they anchored an AJ Puk get.

The other guy's just a ~$350k college bat starting strong, but by the time you have given the clubs 3 years of NCAA data, I think they have mostly got your range of outcomes measured.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

The thing is do errors at first base really mean as much compared to other errors from other positions?   Mainly because they just don't commit many errors compared to other positions.  Even the bad first baseman.  It is just too easy of a position to play.  There is a reason why you see the fat non athletic guys playing First base in all of your softball leagues.  Because it is easy. 

 

IMO no.  Mainly because most errors come from not catching a bad one hop throw from the SS.   They rarely ever penalize the SS for that. 

I am not saying defense isn't important....but when it comes to defense first base is BY FAR the least important position of the field.  All of these guys can catch and field 95% of any ball coming at them.  Either thrown or hit.  The difference for the elite FB is who can catch the other 3% of balls hit or thrown at them.  And I just don't think it makes that much of a difference overall. 

Have you ever seen the 1B get an error instead of the SS on a one hop throw that isn’t handled?   I’ve been watching baseball for 55 years.  Never seen it.   Not once.

[LGOrioles]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

It raises the question whether Deyvison has played his way near (or past?) Cowser-Kjerstad level value.     The Marlins, not necessarily under Bendix, had been generally reputed to like loud tools over the years.

Any individual below Cowser-Kjerstad on Elias' value chain, I'd be doing cartwheels if they anchored an AJ Puk get.

The other guy's just a ~$350k college bat starting strong, but by the time you have given the clubs 3 years of NCAA data, I think they have mostly got your range of outcomes measured.

Cowser’s on pace for nearly 5 WAR in his rookie season if you rate him out to 600 PA’s. With his defense, Deyvison would likely have to be a top 5 hitter in the MLB to reach that kind of value. Teams like Miami might like Deyvison’s age compared to Kjerstad’s, but I doubt he’s really even that close value wise league wide. He’s a borderline top 100 prospect at best with one tool (power). 

[OnlyOneOriole]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Have you ever seen the 1B get an error instead of the SS on a one hop throw that isn’t handled?   I’ve been watching baseball for 55 years.  Never seen it.   Not once.

 

[Just Regular]

Exciting night for Christian Walker.    He isn't getting a QO like Santander, is he?     Yankees Gleyber Torres I'd figured was one of the better bets entering this year, but looking a lot like a No now.

Walker and Santander both 138 HR and ~115 wRC+ the last 5 years.    Our guy younger and more defense.

[RVAOsFan]

 

[Sports Guy]

The most important contract wrinkle involves left-hander Blake Snell, whom industry sources say is drawing significant trade interest after returning to his 2023 NL Cy Young Award-winning form over his past three starts. Snell signed a two-year, $62 million contract in March and his competitive balance tax (CBT) calculation of $29.7 million (which is slightly lower than his average annual guaranteed money because of salary deferrals) represents the largest input to the Giants’ CBT payroll at more than 12.5 percent.

But trading him would make a minimal dent in the Giants’ CBT number. That’s because the Giants and agent Scott Boras structured $17 million of Snell’s contract as a signing bonus payable in 2026 that is nontransferable to a trade partner. Snell’s actual salary this season is just $15 million, and trading him would trim only a prorated portion of that amount — a savings of less than $5 million.

All indications are that the Giants will listen to offers for Snell, who might be the most scouted player in the big leagues when he pitches the front end of a scheduled home doubleheader Saturday against the Colorado Rockies. But if the Giants are motivated to move him, it won’t be for financial reasons. It’d be to recoup the prospect talent they sacrificed when they surrendered a third-round draft pick to sign him. And it’d be because they surmise there’s a decent chance that he’d opt out after the season, anyway.
 

If the money isn’t a concern, go get him. The Giants are a win now team, so guys like Norby and Stowers could appeal to them.

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I don’t think anyone will touch him after today. 

Honestly, part of me gets it. But I don’t think it helps his marketability.

What did I miss? I don't see any news about something happening today with Crochet.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

 

You said something that makes me question how much you really know about the game.  Not saying you’re dumb.  Just what you said was really dumb.

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The most important contract wrinkle involves left-hander Blake Snell, whom industry sources say is drawing significant trade interest after returning to his 2023 NL Cy Young Award-winning form over his past three starts. Snell signed a two-year, $62 million contract in March and his competitive balance tax (CBT) calculation of $29.7 million (which is slightly lower than his average annual guaranteed money because of salary deferrals) represents the largest input to the Giants’ CBT payroll at more than 12.5 percent.

But trading him would make a minimal dent in the Giants’ CBT number. That’s because the Giants and agent Scott Boras structured $17 million of Snell’s contract as a signing bonus payable in 2026 that is nontransferable to a trade partner. Snell’s actual salary this season is just $15 million, and trading him would trim only a prorated portion of that amount — a savings of less than $5 million.

All indications are that the Giants will listen to offers for Snell, who might be the most scouted player in the big leagues when he pitches the front end of a scheduled home doubleheader Saturday against the Colorado Rockies. But if the Giants are motivated to move him, it won’t be for financial reasons. It’d be to recoup the prospect talent they sacrificed when they surrendered a third-round draft pick to sign him. And it’d be because they surmise there’s a decent chance that he’d opt out after the season, anyway.
 

If the money isn’t a concern, go get him. The Giants are a win now team, so guys like Norby and Stowers could appeal to them.

This is the guy Elias needs to target. Go get him. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

What did I miss? I don't see any news about something happening today with Crochet.

He wants an extension if he pitches in October…and he won’t go to the pen in the meantime.

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

What did I miss? I don't see any news about something happening today with Crochet.

 

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Cowser’s on pace for nearly 5 WAR in his rookie season if you rate him out to 600 PA’s. With his defense, Deyvison would likely have to be a top 5 hitter in the MLB to reach that kind of value. Teams like Miami might like Deyvison’s age compared to Kjerstad’s, but I doubt he’s really even that close value wise league wide. He’s a borderline top 100 prospect at best with one tool (power). 

Hopefully Puk and Cowser/Kjerstad can settle it in the World Series!

Many of us lived through Andrew Miller, who AJ Puk's last couple months breakout reminds me some of.     It is easier to accept it as real when scouting wise it is a Miller-Puk level pedigree.    That said - Miller had 2.5 good seasons, not 2.5 good months.     Trade off is 3 Octobers of Puk vs. 1 of Miller.

If the deal tonight were Kjerstad for Puk, I'd have some churning in the pit of my stomach like you probably ought to after a high value trade, but hypothetically I think I might also be proud of Elias for taking a kind of risk on a few Adley Octobers he hasn't yet.

[Sports Guy]

Snell can only be looked at as a rental, so the return is only going to be so much.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Hopefully Puk and Cowser/Kjerstad can settle it in the World Series!

Many of us lived through Andrew Miller, who AJ Puk's last couple months breakout reminds me some of.     It is easier to accept it as real when scouting wise it is a Miller-Puk level pedigree.    That said - Miller had 2.5 good seasons, not 2.5 good months.     Trade off is 3 Octobers of Puk vs. 1 of Miller.

If the deal tonight were Kjerstad for Puk, I'd have some churning in the pit of my stomach like you probably ought to after a high value trade, but hypothetically I think I might also be proud of Elias for taking a kind of risk on a few Adley Octobers he hasn't yet.

Kjerstad for Puk would be a mistake.   I wouldn’t be proud of that.   He needs to get some relievers and they shouldn’t cost someone like Kjerstad.    I am a little worried that he won’t pay up for guys like Scott and Estevez who will be cheaper because of the service time.