The 2024 Trade Deadline

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Any thoughts on who the Orioles target for this right handed OF they are supposedly looking for? 

Robert is probably too expensive. Who else is out there?

Welp, I don’t think Tommy Pham would be good to add to our clubhouse disaster right now. 

Taylor Ward OF/3B from LAA makes sense. He mashes LHP to the tune of .903 OPS this year. .803 for his career. 

He’s gives off Steve Pearce vibes. 

He’s expensive though. $4.3 million this year.  2 years of arb remaining. 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I like Happ if available. Switch hitter with good defense and consistent OPS. Taylor Ward would be the other name. 

I like Happ chatted on X a while back. He’s rumored to love Chicago and wants to finish up there. Who knows if that makes him unavailable or not.

[CaptainRedbeard]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Can't imagine we run the risk of paying ~$80 million just for 3/5 of our 2025 rotation.

What else are they going to spend money on?  The entire offense next year could be as low as $20M. O’Hearn’s option is $7.5M and Adley will be Arb 1. Nearly the entire rest of the offense would be pre-arb (Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, Pache, Hunt/Handley).

That’s 12 players - the only money over the minimum they’ll spend will be on the 13th player and to additionally retain/acquire players to push Stowers/Norby back to AAA (or replace them if traded). Urias and Mateo will be cheap in arbitration if not traded/nontendered. Mountcastle and Mullins will be more expensive in arbitration, but they have been looking to trade them and Mullins could get nontendered even if not traded. McCann or an equivalent backup catcher won’t be expensive; same if they want an improvement on Pache (Pache will actually be Arb 1, but won’t get much more than the minimum).

They’ll probably end up more in the $40-$50M range on position players since they don’t need to take it all the way down to the bare minimum, but that’s still ridiculous payroll flexibility with the position players. They need to be spending money on pitching, and I’d rather do that on starters than relievers. 

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Exactly. Norby and Stowers are worth more to us then they would bring back in a trade. 

Trade Mullins - Call up Stowers. 

Trade Mountcastle - Call up Mayo

Trade Urias - Call up Holliday

This is actually the less risky approach. The vets expected to get traded. Now let Adley assume the clubhouse leader role. 

A new/different chemistry can grow and now everyone knows their role. 

Certainly seeing Adam Jones enjoying his hometown team yesterday reminded me Buck's teams had a clear pecking order.     Even Manny this year on AJ's podcast talked about how he was the grown man leader.

It is maybe disorienting for what everyone thought would happen Gunnar has perhaps turned out better than Adley.

Is there a second circle player with the most dog in them?    Westburg?    Grayson?     Are the rental veterans going to make any waves with SIGBOT's legion, and who if anyone calls a players meeting?     Obviously no one undertakes those steps until the personnel get set.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

Any thoughts on who the Orioles target for this right handed OF they are supposedly looking for? 

Robert is probably too expensive. Who else is out there?

I don’t know but I’d prefer OBP, Speed, and defense over power.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You don’t think Snell would be better?I do 

The Giants aren’t trading Snell. They have like the 3rd easiest schedule remaining in MLB and are darn near back to .500. 

With their current staff of Webb, Snell, Hicks, Ray, and Harrison, they’re like the Rangers in the NL. They just gotta get in the playoffs. 

Right now a $1 bet on the Giants to win the WS gets you $150 potentially. $1 on Texas gets you $70. 

[justD]

Okay.  We’re going to trade for Happ and we think Cowser is a better defender than Mullins in CF.

I’m out. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, Keygans said:

I think that it is closer than you think.   But if we have to throw in a lower level guy, it is a no brainier.    We should not need to part with either Povich or McDermott 

We're not getting a 24 year old TORish SP with 5 more years of control for 2.5 expensive years of a slightly above average 1B/DH and some scraps. Real prospect capital would be 100% required to complete a deal for Woo.

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You don’t think Snell would be better?I do 

I don't think we're getting him, and certainly not for Mountcastle and/or Mullins (which is what was specifically being discussed).

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I think we're only a serious suitor for Snell if the FO has no real intention of pursuing a long-term deal with Burnes/strongly believes he intends to sign elsewhere. Can't imagine we run the risk of paying ~$80 million just for 3/5 of our 2025 rotation.

Question…. If Snell pitches well he’s going to opt out. So he’s either a rental or a guy on a bad contract. Meaning you get him on the cheap or the Giants guarantee a pile of money if he accepts the option. Either way I don’t think a 1 year contract means we give up on resigning Burnes if that’s their goal. I know it would be my priority.

I like the idea of having a top 4 of Burnes, Eflin, Grayson, and Bradish. Leaving the 5 hole or one of the other young guys.

[Roll Tide]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We're not getting a 24 year old TORish SP with 5 more years of control for 2.5 expensive years of a slightly above average 1B/DH and some scraps. Real prospect capital would be 100% required to complete a deal for Woo.

I don't think we're getting him, and certainly not for Mountcastle and/or Mullins (which is what was specifically being discussed).

Maybe they accept one of those guys to offset some salary with a couple middling guys. They aren’t cashing in rental Snell with the risk he might accept that option. I think the high salary team will look elsewhere due to the possibility luxury tax implications of him accepting that contract should an injury or downtrend occur.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Giants aren’t trading Snell. They have like the 3rd easiest schedule remaining in MLB and are darn near back to .500. 

With their current staff of Webb, Snell, Hicks, Ray, and Harrison, they’re like the Rangers in the NL. They just gotta get in the playoffs. 

Right now a $1 bet on the Giants to win the WS gets you $150 potentially. $1 on Texas gets you $70. 

Tempting …how much are you risking

[CaptainRedbeard]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

Any thoughts on who the Orioles target for this right handed OF they are supposedly looking for? 

Robert is probably too expensive. Who else is out there?

Taylor Ward LAA and Lane Thomas WAS are the more interesting names. Brent Rooker OAK is more of a DH now and probably too expensive in trade, and definitely a regular player more than the platoon type they’re looking for. 

More likely though it will be Pillar LAA or Pham CWS or some other cheaper guy not on the radar. 

The interesting part is I don’t see how they add this righty OF bat without trading Mullins, unless they’re DFAing Pache right after acquiring him. I don’t think they can add an additional OF without subtracting one.

They still need to figure out how to make space for Mayo by trading Mountcastle or Urias. It could be Norby temporarily, but Mateo’s not out for the year. I’m assuming Holliday will be the Sept 1 callup and the other Sept 1 spot will be a pitcher.  

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Weirdly this is ending up almost looking like a bridge year where we sell to buy, get all the young guys experience, and go for it again next year.

But we also have Burnes and Eflin, and Santander on a walk year who they won't trade so it's not like they are giving up. 

It's a calculated risk to kind of try and have it both ways. It's interesting. Elias needed the vets to buy time for Holliday and Mayo and make sure the team was solid, but now things have festered a little and it feels like he's under the gun to unload guys.

It’s not a risk at all. It’s more of the same risk-adverse hedging, trying to have the best of both worlds. That’s what we’ve been doing and that’s what has led us to the logjams we have.

Risk would be making bold moves. What we’ve been doing is trying to minimize risk.

[Aristotelian]

54 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I think we're only a serious suitor for Snell if the FO has no real intention of pursuing a long-term deal with Burnes/strongly believes he intends to sign elsewhere. Can't imagine we run the risk of paying ~$80 million just for 3/5 of our 2025 rotation.

Would Barclay's give us an insurance policy on Snell pitching 100+ innings for, say, $5M? $10M?

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It’s not a risk at all. It’s more of the same risk-adverse hedging, trying to have the best of both worlds. That’s what we’ve been doing and that’s what has led us to the logjams we have.

Risk would be making bold moves. What we’ve been doing is trying to minimize risk.

I hear you but I think "trying to have it both ways" is a risk in and of itself sometimes.