The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, MDK02 said:

We won’t be trading for anyone that will make a big difference then. Sounds about right though..

Probably true. Though maybe Snell with the opt out is probably not going to land a top 15 prospect.

However, were you expecting anything different? Elias (for better or worse) doesn’t appear to operate in a manner that tolerates much risk.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Has to be for someone with multiple years of control. I suspect any Skubal rumors stemmed from the Os being willing to move Kjerstad as the headliner…not that he’s enough but still, I think that’s the best guy they would deal for the right player.  Maybe Mason Miller as well.

If the O’s can do any package centered around Kjerstad for Miller, they should do so immediately!

[MDK02]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Probably true. Though maybe Snell with the opt out is probably not going to land a top 15 prospect.

However, were you expecting anything different? Elias (for better or worse) doesn’t appear to operate in a manner that tolerates much risk.

Not surprised at all, just kind of disappointing. At some point, we need to go for it. There’s no guarantee that any of the big 3 prospects are going to be great. Proven pitching is hard to find. 

[Bemorewins]

If we could somehow land Skubal/Snell and Miller that would be a dream scenario. And IMO would put us back in the car bird seat in the AL and probably on par with the Phillies.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The big remaining questions:

1. Will the Orioles pay a premium for a top rental RP (pretty much just Scott), or a good “maybe available” RP with control like Fairbanks, Bednar or Nardi? Or will they go for a cheap under-the-radar middle RP type? They’re going to come away with another RP arm in some capacity, but the prices for Puk and especially Estevez and Adam were so steep that it seems to have put the brakes on the RP market. It’s going to get moving again before the deadline, but not sure if the Orioles will be one to blink. 

2. Will they add another SP? Eflin brings the need down, but they certainly could benefit from another playoff caliber SP. They probably don’t need to bother with the Montas/Quantril level, but somebody to bump Kremer to #5 and provide insurance for injury would be huge. Don’t think it will be Skubal or Crochet. Snell, Flaherty, Fedde, Kikuchi, Anderson are those likely to move, possibly Bassitt and Taillon - with a lot of buyers looking for SP will the Orioles come away with one?

3. Will one of the vets - Mountcastle, Mullins, or Urias - be moved to make roster space for Mayo? Assuming Holliday will be the extra position player on September 1, one of them (or Pache) will have to go to make an additional space for Mayo (probably mid-August so that Mayo retains ROY eligibility, like Holliday). Norby could be optioned, but Mateo is also not out for the year and it’s unclear when he’ll return.

4. If they’re adding a right handed corner OF, will it be a more expensive guy like Ward or Thomas, or a cheaper vet rental like Pham or Pillar? And if so, how do they make the additional roster space in addition to the space for Mayo?

5. Kjerstad and Bradfield IMO are the two biggest potential trade chips that the Orioles are probably willing, but reluctant to move. Do they survive the deadline?

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

If we could somehow land Skubal/Snell and Miller that would be a dream scenario. And IMO would put us back in the car bird seat in the AL and probably on par with the Phillies.

I like the idea of Skubal/lefty reliever/Robert.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, MDK02 said:

Not surprised at all, just kind of disappointing. At some point, we need to go for it. There’s no guarantee that any of the big 3 prospects are going to be great. Proven pitching is hard to find. 

I agree with your point on the pitching. I am going to reserve judgment until after the deadline and then based on how the rest of the season turns out.

Hopefully, Elias decides to pivot from his hedging approach and use his “aces” to do some big game hunting.

I’ve believed for a while that you don’t need 7- 9 hitters to have a .750> OPS or an all “homegrown” lineup. But you need reliable arms to lock things down and win some lower scoring games in October.

For all of the angst about the team’s July swoon and offensive slump, you can’t expect ANY Major League team to have to score 6+ runs to win. We’ve been giving up almost 6 runs a game since Bradish’s injury.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I like the idea of Skubal/lefty reliever/Robert.

Depending on the reliever that could work.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

It was never realistic/reasonable for anyone to think that Seattle would subtract from their team’s strength (starting pitching) in an effort to win, when they have a stocked Minor League system.

Dipoto’s comments follow the kind of logic that you would typically expect of a team attempting to contend.

This doesn’t mean that Ellis approach of “both/and” (have his cake and eat it too) is wrong. But it certainly is different. Only time will tel if Elias and the front office’s approach is correct.

I suggested a move of Mounty for a couple of prospects and then adding from another team. Did I suggest subtracting from the big league team.

[casadeozo]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Depending on the reliever that could work.

Prepare to be disappointed 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I suggested a move of Mounty for a couple of prospects and then adding from another team. Did I suggest subtracting from the big league team.

No. What I was saying is that Seattle would not be incentivized to subtract from their big league team (pitching staff) to add non-difference making offensive players.

The Mariners have a load farm system with like 6 top 100 prospects. It makes much more sense for them to trade prospects in order to find offense as opposed to trading a young starter given the frequency of injuries to pitchers.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

If the bit from the NL team's FO was true, Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo and flatly unavailable, then Luis Robert isn't happening.

That is perfectly fine by me, but YMMV.

 

11 hours ago, Malike said:

I mean the results were there. He was one of the best SP in the NL. They babied him as much as possible, he's only had 18 starts, but sometimes these things happen.

I am personally agnostic about the cause since I have neither the relevant data nor the expertise to properly assess it, I was just saying that it is how people will remember it if the result of the injury is surgery.

[casadeozo]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Has to be for someone with multiple years of control. I suspect any Skubal rumors stemmed from the Os being willing to move Kjerstad as the headliner…not that he’s enough but still, I think that’s the best guy they would deal for the right player.  Maybe Mason Miller as well.

I think the A’s would want prospects further away and and more quantity than quality

i could see Bradfield as a headliner along with 4 plus players. Baumeister certa8nly would have made sense 

[Bemorewins]

Just now, casadeozo said:

Prepare to be disappointed 

As I stated, I am reserving judgment until the end of the deadline and then the outcome of the season.

My hope is that Elias won't repeat the same mistakes as last deadline. Already, he has been a bit more proactive by adding Eflin a little early as opposed to waiting until the very end and being stuck with the last player left (like Flaherty in 23').

[casadeozo]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

As I stated, I am reserving judgment until the end of the deadline and then the outcome of the season.

My hope is that Elias won't repeat the same mistakes as last deadline. Already, he has been a bit more proactive by adding Eflin a little early as opposed to waiting until the very end and being stuck with the last player left (like Flaherty in 23').

I’d love to add Mason Miller if avail but all evidence shows that has not been Elias MO

if we have to go into the playoffs with a 3 of Burnes/Rodriguez/ Eflin that’s certainly competitive. Especially if the offense can turn it on again. The bullpen is where we def need an upgrade as innings 5-9 are our weakness.