Is Elias/SIGBOT and crew really good at drafting and development after the 1st round?

[CaptainRedbeard]

It’s a fair question, although I don’t think you can discount the first round success. Rutschman was the only slam dunk gift at 1:1. It was definitely off consensus to go with Holliday over Jones, and Cowser and Kjerstad were both underslot overdrafts that look good now. And of course the competitive balance picks are still technically first rounders, but getting guys like Gunnar and Westburg there is far outpacing expectations for those picks. 

[Philip]

I appreciate the article, and I wonder if Mike has a special fondness for “fixing” guys: finding a guy who’s terrible but has an elite spin rate, and turning him into a productive player? I read “Astroball,” which covers Elias’ time with Houston, a couple years ago, but I don’t recall what was the change in draft philosophy, beyond no longer focusing on body type.

I wonder if Mike and Sig have created their own checklist for draft picks and it’s not working as well as we’d like.

Yes we’ve had some success, but much of our potential is clogging up AAA waiting to be utilized in some way, and we have no pitching. Is Baumler even a prospect anymore?

I hope Mike and Sig can adjust as necessary, because we aren’t going to be picking below 20 for the foreseeable future.

[nvpacchi]

excluding last year's draft Elias had only drafted 7 pitchers through the first 10 rounds excluding McLean. Close to 50 picks with less than 15% being pitchers, they deserve more leash on pitching because

 

1. I remember a rates and barrels podcast with Eno interviewing a Rangers front office guy. One part of the convo was centered around how much easier it is to overhaul hitting development, because there is far less personalization involved. bat speed is bat speed and swing decisions are swing decisions,  easier to develop an org philosophy. looks like they've obviously done that,  the results speak for themselves, so they can move onto pitching,  and it seems pretty clear they're tinkering and trying things out with the 2023 class to see how to infuse pitching customization for individual pitchers- the harder step in turning around a dysfunctional development system.

2. I think about a Kyle Boddy tweet frequently where, I'm paraphrasing, each pitcher has a skill set that can play at the major league level,  you just have to crush the development for each pitcher. You can be bad until you aren't as a pitcher, especially when you're trying to find the perfect mix of pitches that compliments your arm slot, fastball shape, athleticism,  etc. Guys with good shape metrics just have a head start in finding the ideal pitch mix, so I don't really have an issue preselecting for those characteristics, as it'll just make crushing the development easier. 

Pitch level data for Os minor leaguers would be fun, sadly we don't have it, as it would be the clearest way to determine what tweaks are working throughout the year that have staying power. Id say the positive starts for Baumeister Forret and Young ready to pop top 100 lists is an encouraging sign.

[OnlyOneOriole]

8 minutes ago, Philip said:

I appreciate the article, and I wonder if Mike has a special fondness for “fixing” guys: finding a guy who’s terrible but has an elite spin rate, and turning him into a productive player? I read “Astroball,” which covers Elias’ time with Houston, a couple years ago, but I don’t recall what was the change in draft philosophy, beyond no longer focusing on body type.

I wonder if Mike and Sig have created their own checklist for draft picks and it’s not working as well as we’d like.

Yes we’ve had some success, but much of our potential is clogging up AAA waiting to be utilized in some way, and we have no pitching. Is Baumler even a prospect anymore?

I hope Mike and Sig can adjust as necessary, because we aren’t going to be picking below 20 for the foreseeable future.

I have been a Colts fan as long as I have been an O's fan, (all my life), and this has been a big criticism of Chris Ballard as the Colts GM for 8 years now.   He is well regarded.  Ranked high on the GM list.  But has not won a division title since he came on board.   I get the same vibe from Elias. 

 

Ballard always drafts based on peripherals and size, height, athletic ability rather than who actually performs.  It hasn't been until the past year that he has started to change.     

[Philip]

14 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I have been a Colts fan as long as I have been an O's fan, (all my life), and this has been a big criticism of Chris Ballard as the Colts GM for 8 years now.   He is well regarded.  Ranked high on the GM list.  But has not won a division title since he came on board.   I get the same vibe from Elias. 

 

Ballard always drafts based on peripherals and size, height, athletic ability rather than who actually performs.  It hasn't been until the past year that he has started to change.     

I don’t remember as much of Astro ball as I’d like, but one thing I do remember is that they specifically moved away from pigeonholing body types. I don’t know why he’s been so reluctant to draft pitching, but now that we have a draft pick in the 20s, maybe he will change.

[Flash- bd]

Have Joey Ortiz and Darrell Hernaiz (Cole Irvin) been mentioned here? Certainly those are important after 1st round picks, along with Stowers, Gunnar, etc. 

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Have Joey Ortiz and Darrell Hernaiz (Cole Irvin) been mentioned here? Certainly those are important after 1st round picks, along with Stowers, Gunnar, etc. 

Tony talked about college position players (excludes Hernaiz and Gunnar) starting with the 2020 draft (excludes everyone you mentioned).

Edited June 5 by RZNJ

[Jagwar]

I could be overstating this, but in Elias' first few draft years, it seemed like he hoarded SS and CF in the draft, figuring they were such good athletes they could move anywhere on the field. But as Tony pointed out, Elias seemed to avoid pitching picks. If that were the case in one draft I would understand, but it was multiple drafts. It shouldn't shock anyone that our pitching depth in the minors is shallow.

[Aristotelian]

Mike Trout was 1/25 and regarded as perhaps the generational draft pick. To think Elias is supposed to find one of these guys every year is an insanely high expectation. I am 100% grateful for what we have.

I agree Elias has not drafted pitching but he has done a good job as any of getting the best player available and then turning those assets into pitching talent when needed (Irvin, Burnes).

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mike Trout was 1/25 and regarded as perhaps the generational draft pick. To think Elias is supposed to find one of these guys every year is an insanely high expectation. I am 100% grateful for what we have.

I agree Elias has not drafted pitching but he has done a good job as any of getting the best player available and then turning those assets into pitching talent when needed (Irvin, Burnes).

I don’t think anyone expects anything of the sort.   You only have so many assets both for the team and to use as trade chips.  They’re finite.  You have to keep finding more assets to keep the wheel spinning.   We are in a great spot now because we drafted players who became top prospects.  To maintain that great spot, 3,4,5 years going forward we need to continue to find those types of players.   The Latin program, hopefully will provide some.  We still need to find Jordan Westburgs, Joey Ortiz’s, and Coby Mayos in the draft.   

[Sports Guy]

It’s a fair criticism.

They have overpaid and over drafted a lot of for a lot of college hitters.

And as Tony said, they have gone after some guys who have issues that they think they can fix (can add Haskin to that list)

Think about the money spent on some guys.

Haskin got 1.9M. Players drafted after him include Jared Jones, Evan Carter, Mason Wynn.

Servideo was an overslept guy who got 950K.  Kyle Harrison was drafted after him.

2021 draft, the Os elected to save money with Cowser and not take Lawlar, who was the better talent and has been rated higher throughout their MiL careers, with Lawlar being a top 10 guy on many lists.

But getting past that, Norby was a good second pick and most felt that way at the time. But after that, Reed Trimble, John Rhodes, Donta Williams and Collin Burns.  Tavera was an ok pick but he’s nothing special either.  They didn’t go after some good arms that were drafted later. Guys like Mason Miller, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller.  The Os used their “Savings” on Cowser on Creed Willems and went 500k over on Rhodes.  They also went over slot on Burnes, Pavolony and Craig.

All of them are misses although maybe Willems has some potential or some team may be intrigued by his power to want him as a 3rd piece in a trade.

2022 brought us Holliday and Beavers with the first 2 picks. They failed to sign McClean who is getting talked about a lot.  Fabian still could be a guy that makes the roster and Bright has some potential upside as a reliever.

2023 is early but it has a 2021 feel to me.

Seems like they have done a good job addressing the first 2 picks but very shaky after and while I agree it’s a crap shoot, I have said many times that I feel they are targeting the wrong types of guys. 
 

The system really starts to thin out once Basallo, Mayo, Holliday and Kjerstad graduate. The Os will have an abundance of talent on the ML roster once that happens but you will need that next wave. Where is the system going to be in 2-3 years?  I’m guessing how well the Intl guys develop will determine this.
 

We don’t know what Rubenstein is going to do with the payroll but we know Elias isn’t going to sign big FA deals. Will he sign middling contracts?  Maybe..unfortunately.

But we should be building the pen and the bench largely through the system. It’s a poor use of money to spend on those areas.

I feel like the team has to start drafting power arms on a more frequent basis and they need to stop targeting so many college OFers that look destined to be organizational players from the moment you draft them.

People get so wrapped up in the draft savings for the first pick and “that’s why we got Mayo” but that’s flat out wrong. There are plenty of ways to get overslot guys in the draft.  

Edited June 5 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think anyone expects anything of the sort.   You only have so many assets both for the team and to use as trade chips.  They’re finite.  You have to keep finding more assets to keep the wheel spinning.   We are in a great spot now because we drafted players who became top prospects.  To maintain that great spot, 3,4,5 years going forward we need to continue to find those types of players.   The Latin program, hopefully will provide some.  We still need to find Jordan Westburgs, Joey Ortiz’s, and Coby Mayos in the draft.   

Still being the operative word. We have had success up and down the draft. Gunnar alone puts us ahead of the game. 

How many teams have a better group of second rounders from 2019-21 than Gunnar, Mayo, Ortiz, Stowers, and Hernaiz? 

I do think it will get tougher now that we won't have 1/1. Effectively our picks will start where we have been picking in the second round. I have much lower expectations moving forward, not because I think Elias will do a bad job but because we are in a more challenging drafting position. 

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, Gunnar was a 2nd round pick.  I think that by itself justifies anything Elias did after round 1 in the 5 years he’s been drafting for us.  

100% Gunnar was obviously a fantastic pick as the "1st" pick of the 2nd round. Of course, that was not my point of this piece. The point was the fact that the college hitter approach has not really paid off and they have yet to draft and develop a major league pitcher after 5 drafts.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Still being the operative word. We have had success up and down the draft. Gunnar alone puts us ahead of the game. 

How many teams have a better group of second rounders from 2019-21 than Gunnar, Mayo, Ortiz, Stowers, and Hernaiz? 

I do think it will get tougher now that we won't have 1/1. Effectively our picks will start where we have been picking in the second round. I have much lower expectations moving forward, not because I think Elias will do a bad job but because we are in a more challenging drafting position. 

It’s tougher but plenty of traditional powerhouse/very good teams draft late and put out good systems.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

100% Gunnar was obviously a fantastic pick as the "1st" pick of the 2nd round. Of course, that was not my point of this piece. The point was the fact that the college hitter approach has not really paid off and they have yet to draft and develop a major league pitcher after 5 drafts.

Kinda crazy they haven't even produced a bullpen piece.