Is Elias/SIGBOT and crew really good at drafting and development after the 1st round?

[emmett16]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's because you are going to have a worse idea of what the HS kid can do well.

Elias and Sig seem to highly value the additional data they get on College players.

I think the maturity level plays a huge part as well.  You really have to get a good read on a HS kid, his family, and inner circle to have faith he will be able to handle everything that comes with pro ball….ie: first time away from home, first time away from his support system, grueling schedules, insane competition, dealing with failure & adversity.  

[sportsfan8703]

Norby hit a HR last night. What do you mean Elias isn’t drafting well?   An unintentional Reverse Jinx thread?

Norby, Stowers, Hernaiz, and Ortiz, would be probably better than what most other teams have produced post 1st rd over the same time period. Gotta toss Mayo in there too.

 I don’t follow the minors as closely as some this year, but is there a team in baseball that’s put 4 post 1st rd picks to the majors since Elias got here?

The under performers so far would be Rhodes, Wagner, and Horvath. All really athletic dudes. Definitely too early to give up on Wagner and Horvath. Who knows what Nolan McLean would’ve been?  Is Fabian really underperforming. 

Rhodes kind of seems like a poor man’s Reimold. Athletic, more healthy, but without the big power tool. Rhodes is a guy that I could see grinding at AAA while we have control and eventually being a RH version of Stowers. An up/down RHH to pair with our LHH OF. Or he could be a throw in for a trade. 

Edited June 5 by sportsfan8703

[e16bball]

One thing I haven’t really seen mentioned is that I think Elias and company may view the draft and the international signing process as two complementary pieces of one larger talent acquisition process.

I think it’s a fair statement that international prospects generally skew overwhelmingly toward very young, very raw, very projection-heavy. It would be a pretty rare occasion for us to sign a polished, experienced international prospect that will quickly land in Aberdeen or higher.

If the goal is to balance/diversify your talent acquisition process — and I’m not necessarily saying that it is or even that it should be — your traditional draft process would probably tend to skew more heavily toward the college guys. To infuse the experience, polish, physical/mental development, and greater “certainty” into your system that you typically can’t get in the 16-year-old international signing melee.

That’s what the Astros did, especially as they started to move into their contention window. Their drafts became very college heavy (28 out of their 32 picks in the first 10 rounds from 2016-2018 were college players) and they leaned more on international free agency, signing guys like Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu, Cionel Perez, Wilyer Abreu, etc. Not to mention instantly trading for Yordan Alvarez after missing out on him, before he ever took an AB for the Dodgers. 

In short, I suspect they view the draft not in a vacuum but as part of a combined process with international free agency. I think they see the international market as a place where you can pretty much only buy lottery tickets, which means the draft becomes the side of the process where they invest more in certainty, easier projections, and higher floors. Whether this is the right approach, I’m not sure. But I do think that’s roughly the lens they view it through.

Edited June 5 by e16bball

[Say O!]

COVID was an exogenous variable that has impacted draft/predraft development, particularly 2020-2022 guys.  Whether just flat out whiffs on picks and/or slowing down development timelines.  It will be interesting to follow all organizations and success rates of non1st rounders from those seasons. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Who knows what Nolan McLean would’ve been?

Hey, if nothing else John Rhodes got him for a HR last night!

[sportsfan8703]

Since Elias has been here we’ve seen Ortiz, Hernaiz, Norby, and Stowers debut as post 1st rd selections. Mayo is one of the top prospects in the game. Has any other team had more success post 1st rd since Elias has been here?

I’m also freely admitting that I don’t follow the minor leagues for other teams. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Since Elias has been here we’ve seen Ortiz, Hernaiz, Norby, and Stowers debut as post 1st rd selections. Mayo is one of the top prospects in the game. Has any other team had more success post 1st rd since Elias has been here?

I’m also freely admitting that I don’t follow the minor leagues for other teams. 

Haha, I kind of agree. If anything, it seems like Elias has had more post-1st-round success than maybe any other team in the game. Not sure if that's true though. 

And in future years, I think we're going to see a lot of this late-round pitching that's been bubbling up this year. 

Edited June 5 by interloper

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias may be trading Hays and Mullins this off season looking to get prospects in return.   Much like he sis with Mancini and Lopez getting Cano, Povich, McDermott and Johnson.

We aren't getting a bag of balls for Hays.  Mullins *may* have value, but it won't be much.  Probably a relief prospect at best, or maybe a lotto ticket in rookie/DSL ball.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I haven't looked into it but are college baseball players going to be getting a decent amount of NIL money?  I assumed that the vast majority of it would be going to the more high profile sports. 

I was talking to a college coach and said he knows a player that was offered $800K in NIL money to go to LSU. So yes, the NIL money is changing the landscape of all NCAA sports.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I haven't looked into it but are college baseball players going to be getting a decent amount of NIL money?  I assumed that the vast majority of it would be going to the more high profile sports. 

I was talking to a college coach and he said that he knows a player that was offered $800K in NIL money to go to LSU. So yes, the NIL money is changing the landscape of all NCAA sports.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

 

What does this have to do with the results of Orioles minor league pitchers? 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

They tackled the hitting side first, makes sense, payoff is faster, and the results speak for themselves with the line of guys still waiting in AAA.

Where are the results from college guys not drafted in the first round? Only Ortiz is an everyday player and the story is that Ortiz remade himself during COVID, not that the Orioles hitting "gurus" gave him some magic formula.

The college guys who are having success at the major league level were all high 1st rounders and he guys in AAA were either 1st rounders or high 2nd rounders.. 

I'm not saying the systems/informaiton and coaching they have in place are not helpful, they certainly are, but I think it's fair to ask why they have not been able to pop one guy from a lower round outside of Ortiz. They invested a lot of money and draft picks into college bats that have failed or are not looking like guys right now. 

I'm just not sure I'm ready to call their hitting development system a raging success, yet.

Rutschman, Cowser, Kjerstad were all very high picks, and Gunnar and Mayo were high risk, high reward High Schoolers who popped. I definitely will give the hitting development credit for developing Henderson and Mayo, but this is really part of my point. Maybe they need to get these high school guys and develop them vs the college guys? 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

One thing I haven’t really seen mentioned is that I think Elias and company may view the draft and the international signing process as two complementary pieces of one larger talent acquisition process.

I think it’s a fair statement that international prospects generally skew overwhelmingly toward very young, very raw, very projection-heavy. It would be a pretty rare occasion for us to sign a polished, experienced international prospect that will quickly land in Aberdeen or higher.

If the goal is to balance/diversify your talent acquisition process — and I’m not necessarily saying that it is or even that it should be — your traditional draft process would probably tend to skew more heavily toward the college guys. To infuse the experience, polish, physical/mental development, and greater “certainty” into your system that you typically can’t get in the 16-year-old international signing melee.

That’s what the Astros did, especially as they started to move into their contention window. Their drafts became very college heavy (28 out of their 32 picks in the first 10 rounds from 2016-2018 were college players) and they leaned more on international free agency, signing guys like Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu, Cionel Perez, Wilyer Abreu, etc. Not to mention instantly trading for Yordan Alvarez after missing out on him, before he ever took an AB for the Dodgers. 

In short, I suspect they view the draft not in a vacuum but as part of a combined process with international free agency. I think they see the international market as a place where you can pretty much only buy lottery tickets, which means the draft becomes the side of the process where they invest more in certainty, easier projections, and higher floors. Whether this is the right approach, I’m not sure. But I do think that’s roughly the lens they view it through.

If I wanted to be a wise guy I’d ask how the Astros are doing but seriously the Astros had a core of Correa, Altuve, Bergman, and Alvarez.   They were able to replace Correa with Peña and they extended Altuve but what do they have coming up in their system?

It’s a hard thing to do, to keep the pipeline pumping.

[emmett16]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What does this have to do with the results of Orioles minor league pitchers? 

 

I was only responding to the part in your post about the success of players developed by Boddy.  Your post made it sound like you hadn’t seen any data on his ability to develop pitchers so I replied with a data point.  
  

[emmett16]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I was talking to a college coach and he said that he knows a player that was offered $800K in NIL money to go to LSU. So yes, the NIL money is changing the landscape of all NCAA sports.

I was talking to a guy that runs an academy and the way I understand it is that the players are Essentially going to become independent contractors.  Even outside of NIL money schools will be able to offer a contract for the player’s services.  IE.  LSU & the other big boys  might have a 20-30MM payroll.