Guthrie season splits

[Sports Guy]

I do think you have to give some credence to growth in Guthries game. If we had a former first round pick in Norfolk who pitched as well as Guthrie did in Buffalo last season I think many of us would think that pitcher had a chance to be at least a bit more than a #5 starter, no?

Not me...Because it was what, his third time in AAA and he was 27...His peripherals weren't all that great and he was in a pitchers league and in a pitchers park.

Nothing he did was something spectacular.

Always thought he could be a very good reliever...He is certainly showing, even when he has struggled the last 6 weeks or so, that he may be a back of the rotation guy i didn't think he could even be that(of course, just some random 4.7-5.2 ERA is a back of the rotation guy in the AL but it isn't neccassarily someone i want in the rotation either...depends on other factors)

[Sports Guy]

Ok well you can continue to think he is a #5 starter and we'll all laugh at you when he's making the AS team every year. Not saying that he will, but he has the ability to make a couple AS games (should have this season).

I still don't understand why you can't realize that sometimes pitchers can figure things out as they get older. It will just "click" and they will pitch to another level.

Ty...Most pitchers, hitters or burger flippers have reached their career heights at 28..Yes, pitchers can develop later...There are examples. There are even HOFers who have done this.

But there are 1000s more who haven't.

[Sports Guy]

Ok well you can continue to think he is a #5 starter and we'll all laugh at you when he's making the AS team every year. Not saying that he will, but he has the ability to make a couple AS games (should have this season).

I still don't understand why you can't realize that sometimes pitchers can figure things out as they get older. It will just "click" and they will pitch to another level.

But what level?

If he has a 4.7 ERA in a down offensive year for well more than half of his starts, what level is that?

[geschinger]

Not me...Because it was what, his third time in AAA and he was 27...His peripherals weren't all that great and he was in a pitchers league and in a pitchers park.

Nothing he did was something spectacular.

Always thought he could be a very good reliever...He is certainly showing, even when he has struggled the last 6 weeks or so, that he may be a back of the rotation guy i didn't think he could even be that(of course, just some random 4.7-5.2 ERA is a back of the rotation guy in the AL but it isn't neccassarily someone i want in the rotation either...depends on other factors)

I think he'll eventually be a more effective version of Kris Benson. Certainly not A/S quality like Ty seems to think but someone who we can plug into the rotation who will keep us in ballgames. A ton of value for someone making peanuts.

[tywright]

Ok, let's say he finishes with a 3.50 ERA...I agree with you that he has a real shot at that.

That will, as i showed, give him a 4.7 ERA for about 15-17 starts vs the 1.74 ERA in the earlier starts.

So, in a down offensive year and with shaky peripherals, do you think that bodes well for the future?

You keep on saying 2007 has been a down offensive year...but how much really? It's not that big of a drop. Last 5 years average runs scored by team, starting with this year: 4.73, 4.86, 4.59, 4.81, 4.72.

Hey by the way, if he had an ERA at 4.70 for 127 of 190IP (66ER in 2/3 of starts) and an ERA of 1.80 for 64IP (13 ER in 1/3 of starts), his total ERA would be 3.74

[Sports Guy]

I think he'll eventually be a more effective version of Kris Benson. Certainly not A/S quality like Ty seems to think but someone who we can plug into the rotation who will keep us in ballgames. A ton of value for someone making peanuts.

And if he can do that, he will be better than i thought he could/would be....He could certainly follow the career path of someone like Rodrigo...Very up and down and inconsistent year to year. That wouldn't surprise me at this stage and i wouldn't have said that back in May.

[tywright]

Ty...Most pitchers, hitters or burger flippers have reached their career heights at 28..Yes, pitchers can develop later...There are examples. There are even HOFers who have done this.

But there are 1000s more who haven't.

He started in the minors when he was 24 and didn't have as much pitching experience as 21 years olds in AA

[Sports Guy]

He started in the minors when he was 24 and didn't have as much pitching experience as 21 years olds in AA

Doesn't matter.....I believe it was Drungo who showed that that is insignificant.

[tywright]

And if he can do that, he will be better than i thought he could/would be....He could certainly follow the career path of someone like Rodrigo...Very up and down and inconsistent year to year. That wouldn't surprise me at this stage and i wouldn't have said that back in May.

We've discussed this...Guthrie has better stuff and makeup than Rodrigo

[tywright]

Doesn't matter.....I believe it was Drungo who showed that that is insignificant.

Insignificant...so basically there's a possibility, a small possibility

[tywright]

But what level?

If he has a 4.7 ERA in a down offensive year for well more than half of his starts, what level is that?

I'll post this again because it looks like you don't want to comment on it:

If he had an ERA at 4.70 for 127 of 190IP (66ER in 2/3 of starts) and an ERA of 1.80 for 64IP (13 ER in 1/3 of starts), his total ERA would be 3.74

So what do you characterize a pitcher with a 3.74 ERA? a good one who can be a 2/3 starter or a #5 starter or reliever?

[Sports Guy]

We've discussed this...Guthrie has better stuff and makeup than Rodrigo

Thanks for sharing...I am not talking about this...I am just talking about his career path.

I think we would be fortunate for him to give us what Rlo gave us...Rodrigo was a top of the rotation guy for 2 years and a back of the rotation guy one year...He had 2 other bad years but did fight some injuries in those seasons i believe and last year, he obviously didn't see eye to eye with Mazzone even though he was solid in the second half of the season.

So, for 3.5 seasons, he was a very solid pitcher for us....That's not bad.

[Sports Guy]

I'll post this again because it looks like you don't want to comment on it:

So what did you characterize a pitcher with a 3.74 ERA? a good one who can be a 2/3 starter or a #5 starter or reliever?

Would need to see his peripherals...However, if a guy pitched to a 4.7 ERA in a down offensive year with shaky peripherals for 2/3 of the season, i would be very skeptical of him going forward.

[tywright]

Would need to see his peripherals...However, if a guy pitched to a 4.7 ERA in a down offensive year with shaky peripherals for 2/3 of the season, i would be very skeptical of him going forward.

Haha ok, a typical SG answer without actually answering

I bet his BABIP during his 4.70 ERA splits would be around 3.10. HAHA

[Sports Guy]

Insignificant...so basically there's a possibility, a small possibility

Yea and i have said that....I am still waiting for you to acknowledge that he could go the opposite way of what you think he will.

You have NEVER done that.