The Braves series, June 11-13

[Frobby]

The Braves come into Baltimore at 35-28, but 9-15 in their last 24, including 3 consecutive losses to the Nationals over the weekend.  The pitching matchups are:

Max Fried (6-2, 2.93 ERA) vs. Albert Suarez (2-0, 1.83)

Spencer Schwellenbach (0-2, 8.38) vs. Cade Povich (0-1, 10.13)

Reynaldo Lopez (3-2, 1.85) vs. Cole Irvin  6-2, 2.87)

Fried comes in on a nice roll, having pitched to a 1.53 ERA in his last 5 starts covering 35.1.innings.  The O’s saw him last year and handled him well, scoring 7 runs (5 earned) in 6 innings.  Schwellenbach will be making only his third major league start, which is one more than his counterpart, Cade Povich, will have made in his career.  I’m not quite sure why, but Schwellenbach was promoted after only two games in AA, having previously been pitching in high A.  So, Povich is actually the more experienced pitcher, and I like that matchup.  Lopez, who had been a reliever for the last several years, has been converted back into a starting pitcher this season and has been extremely effective.  The O’s saw him a couple of times in relief last year and scored a couple of runs off him.

The bullpens appear evenly matched, with the Braves sporting a 3.35 bullpen ERA (5th in MLB), with the Orioles just ahead at 3.29 (4th).   Closer Raisel Iglesias sports a 2.22 ERA and has converted 16 of 18 saves.

The Orioles are outscoring the Braves, 5.17 runs per game to 4.43.   Going into the final Tampa game, the O’s were carrying a 120 OPS+, while the Braves are at 101.   The Braves are without Ronald Acuña Jr., out for the rest of the year with a knee injury.  During their recent 24-game slide (the last 13 without Acuña), they’ve averaged only 3.63 runs per game.  Most of the Braves’ lineup is having a down year, with the notable exception of Marcell Ozuna, who’s hitting .312/.385/.603 and leads the NL with 18 homers and 55 RBI.

Overall, the O’s will face two tough veteran pitches in Fried and Lopez, and a very inexperienced rookie in Schwellenbach.   Our offense is used to facing tough starters and has been on a good roll lately, so hopefully they can find a way to put some runs on the board.  I’d be very happy to get a series win here.

[Cuellar35]

We owe them for last year. I was at the Saturday game last year.  Lots of O's fans here in Atlanta.  We were looking great until the Kevin Pillar pinch 2 R HR.  The Braves were rolling when the O's played them.  Though we lost 2 out of 3 the losses were close.  That's when I felt we showed we were going to be legit.

[Just Regular]

Schwellenbach and Povich were Nebraska teammates.

Their draft year 2021 - Schwellenbach was a relief ace - 0.57 ERA in 31.2 innings.    I know he was in the Futures Game last year, so he's placed a little bit for me as a parallel ATL experiment to the Reynaldo Lopez one.    He also looks like he was a bat only in 2019, so kind of has that deGrom thing of maybe not having spent age 15-20 maxing his effort, and the Strider thing of a small number of NCAA innings.

 

[Sports Guy]

A 4-2 homestand would be nice.

[Just Regular]

2023-24 Braves OPS+ scan

C Murphy 126 --> D'Arnaud 115     (Murphy just settling into his season after a 2022 Adley like first quarter absence)

1B Olson 163 to 112

2B Albies 125 to 106

SS Arcia 98 to 79

3B Riley 129 to 84

LF Rosario 101 --> Kelenic 103

CF Harris 115 to 83

RF Acuna 169 to 105

DH Ozuna 139 to 177

Something I loved about the 2023 Braves that I hope some future Orioles team has enough good health to do is they basically said "peace out" to the back of the bench because the best 10 guys in the position player group were so strong.    I want to see a yearly outcome when Heston Kjerstad is the worst guy getting even 100 of the ~6800 PA.

It has been an interesting 3 year run with regular season and postseason success contrasts as Bryce's team has outplayed them twice following the 2021 championship.    ATL-PHI still probably heading for their parallel to BAL-NYY as a likeliest divisional series matchup, and for some fans that result matters much more than who wins 104 and who wins 96 games.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Something I loved about the 2023 Braves that I hope some future Orioles team has enough good health to do is they basically said "peace out" to the back of the bench because the best 10 guys in the position player group were so strong.    I want to see a yearly outcome when Heston Kjerstad is the worst guy getting even 100 of the ~6800 PA.

Why is this good?

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Why is this good?

It might be fun for the '27 Orioles to eclipse the '27 Yankees.

[Safelykept]

6 hours ago, Cuellar35 said:

We owe them for last year. I was at the Saturday game last year.  Lots of O's fans here in Atlanta.  We were looking great until the Kevin Pillar pinch 2 R HR.  The Braves were rolling when the O's played them.  Though we lost 2 out of 3 the losses were close.  That's when I felt we showed we were going to be legit.

A lot of people here saw it the same way. Got to Fried for I think a 7 spot in Friday game before losing 2 really tough games on Sat, Sun. However they do it , if they go 3-3 or better this week I'll be good with that.

[Frobby]

The Braves are similar to the Rays in that most of their team is hitting worse than in 2023.  You always worry that this will be the week they decide to snap out of it.  The Rays didn’t; we’ll see about the Braves.  

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

A lot of people here saw it the same way. Got to Fried for I think a 7 spot in Friday game before losing 2 really tough games on Sat, Sun. However they do it , if they go 3-3 or better this week I'll be good with that.

That was such a fun series last year and I believe Mullins had a two HR game. We definitely should be seeking revenge. I believe they beat us 2/3 in really close games. We’re not that “Nice” team anymore from last year. 

[Frobby]

Here’s a short article on the Braves’ decision to call up Schwellenbach.  Seems like a pretty short-sighted decision to me.   HuskerFan must be having an orgasm over the Povich-Schwellenbach matchup.

[IPlayGM]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

A 4-2 homestand would be nice.

I would also accept 3-3.

[Roy Firestone]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Braves come into Baltimore at 35-28, but 9-15 in their last 24, including 3 consecutive losses to the Nationals over the weekend.  The pitching matchups are:

Max Fried (6-2, 2.93 ERA) vs. Albert Suarez (2-0, 1.83)

Spencer Schwellenbach (0-2, 8.38) vs. Cade Povich (0-1, 10.13)

Reynaldo Lopez (3-2, 1.85) vs. Cole Irvin  6-2, 2.87)

Fried comes in on a nice roll, having pitched to a 1.53 ERA in his last 5 starts covering 35.1.innings.  The O’s saw him last year and handled him well, scoring 7 runs (5 earned) in 6 innings.  Schwellenbach will be making only his third major league start, which is one more than his counterpart, Cade Povich, will have made in his career.  I’m not quite sure why, but Schwellenbach was promoted after only two games in AA, having previously been pitching in high A.  So, Povich is actually the more experienced pitcher, and I like that matchup.  Lopez, who had been a reliever for the last several years, has been converted back into a starting pitcher this season and has been extremely effective.  The O’s saw him a couple of times in relief last year and scored a couple of runs off him.

The bullpens appear evenly matched, with the Braves sporting a 3.35 bullpen ERA (5th in MLB), with the Orioles just ahead at 3.29 (4th).   Closer Raisel Iglesias sports a 2.22 ERA and has converted 16 of 18 saves.

The Orioles are outscoring the Braves, 5.17 runs per game to 4.43.   Going into the final Tampa game, the O’s were carrying a 120 OPS+, while the Braves are at 101.   The Braves are without Ronald Acuña Jr., out for the rest of the year with a knee injury.  During their recent 24-game slide (the last 13 without Acuña), they’ve averaged only 3.63 runs per game.  Most of the Braves’ lineup is having a down year, with the notable exception of Marcell Ozuna, who’s hitting .312/.385/.603 and leads the NL with 18 homers and 55 RBI.

Overall, the O’s will face two tough veteran pitches in Fried and Lopez, and a very inexperienced rookie in Schwellenbach.   Our offense is used to facing tough starters and has been on a good roll lately, so hopefully they can find a way to put some runs on the board.  I’d be very happy to get a series win here.

Max Fried pitched on my son's Little League team, and is a beloved family friend as is his entire family. He's a wonderful young man, and it thrilled us to watch him win a World Series and pitch in a World Series at Dodger Stadium. I root hard for him every time he pitches...but not tonight.He will be an extremely tough pitcher to face tonight...but I will hope he pitches well, but we somehow get the best of him. This matchup is gonna be tough on my heart, sentiment wise. But Orioles are always my choice. Max is a free agent next year...it would be my dream come true to see him in Baltimore...but I think he will become a Dodger...HIS childhood dream come true.

[Fiver6565]

Brutal nine-game stretch starting now and ending w/ the NYY series.  Arguably three of the four best teams in baseball (not including the O's themselves, who are right up there), all in a row.  Hard to remember a stretch quite like that.  We just need to tread water - 5-4 or 4-5 is perfectly fine for now.  6-3 or better will certainly wake some (even more) people up nationally to the potential of the Orioles, who I feel like still get slept on a little bit due to the large shadow cast by the Yankees so far this season.  God knows MLB's collective orgasm over the Yanks having the best record in baseball is already gag-worthy.  The fawning over the LA-NY series this past weekend was just grossly over the top.

[Fiver6565]

6 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Max Fried pitched on my son's Little League team, and is a beloved family friend as is his entire family. He's a wonderful young man, and it thrilled us to watch him win a World Series and pitch in a World Series at Dodger Stadium. I root hard for him every time he pitches...but not tonight.He will be an extremely tough pitcher to face tonight...but I will hope he pitches well, but we somehow get the best of him. This matchup is gonna be tough on my heart, sentiment wise. But Orioles are always my choice. Max is a free agent next year...it would be my dream come true to see him in Baltimore...but I think he will become a Dodger...HIS childhood dream come true.

He didn't pitch in a WS at Dodger Stadium did he?  How would that work?  Maybe the NLCS?  I can't remember who they beat there.  Anyway, imagine Mayo on the team, and a Fried-Mayo matchup a couple times tonight!  That'd be a tough one for you!