Hmm… so about that qualifying offer to Santander?

[e16bball]

55 minutes ago, G54377 said:

It is kinda scary the similarities to Mark Trumbo. Trumbo had that huge contract year at age 30 with 47 HR and his career OPS sat at 776 before we resigned him and he fell off a cliff. Santander in the middle of his hot streak is at 772 OPS career. I doubt Santander will fall from grace like Trumbo, but he's also a (basically) bat only player with extreme cold streaks and injuries.

Doesn’t seem like a ton of pattern from the reasonable Santander comps I can locate. Focusing on guys who were good hitters for a few years before turning 30 (combined 116-128 OPS+ between ages 27 and 29), particularly those with low average/low OBP but good power. Primarily corner IFs or OFs.

Some fell off almost instantly around age 30, guys like Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Khris (with a K) Davis, possibly Jorge Polanco is on this path.

Some were still decent (above league average) hitters in that 30-34 range, guys like Evan Longoria, Kyle Seager, Kendrys Morales, possibly Rhys Hoskins is on this path.

And some still had a lot of thunder left in the bat for a few years, guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Marcell Ozuna, possibly Jorge Soler is on this path. 

Hard to tell for sure where Tony will go, based on those track records. Health will be a huge part of it, as it was (or is) for many of those names. The one big thing that works to his advantage, I think, is that he doesn’t strike out all that much. Guys like Upton and Khris Davis (and of course Chris Davis) didn’t have the bat-to-ball skills that a guy like Santander has, so it was curtains for them as soon as the otherworldly bat speed started to dry up. 

[Malike]

22 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

He had a .789 OPS w/ a 28% K rate vs LHP in 2023 (.802 OPS, 22% K rate vs RHP)

This season, he has 0 K's in 13 PA's vs LHP and his overall K rate has dropped to 10%. 

He has clearly become a better overall hitter, with an excellent feel for the strike zone. Say he is given more opportunities vs LHP and his K rate is 50% higher than it is vs RHP, making it 15% - he could still be an effective hitter.

It doesn't make sense to make the decision that he is strictly a platoon guy based on 200 plate appearances, most of which from over two years ago when he wasn't a very good hitter in general.

There are a couple of reasons O'Hearn has had a resurgence in his career. The removal of the shift, and the fact that he isn't getting playing time against LHP. He had 29 ABs last year against them. I'm going to assume the team knows his real strengths and weaknesses and they are putting him in a position where he can succeed. If you want Ryan O'Hearn to be at 120 OPS+, keep giving him 30ABs a year against LHP, if you want him to be a .700 ish OPS guy with replacement level WAR, give him 650+ ABs.

[Jim'sKid26]

4 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

For every Trumbo and Mancini I can show you a Cruz and a Singleton.     I never did like Trumbo.  Mancini was good but obviously his cancer and all that went with it probably took some years off of him playing wise. 

The decision to offer the QO will make itself by the time the deadline to offer it occurs. Between trades, performance and FA availability, I see no reason to make that decision now.

With regard to an extension, Santander is represented currently by GSE Worldwide (according to Sportac). They are an agency best known for their golf and tennis portfolio of athletes (Bryson D, Lexi, Grayson Murray). Their MLB division is small and I don't know who else they represent in the baseball realm. So I'm not sure how extension negotiations would play out. He settled for a reasonable 2024 salary and did not go to Arb. Does he take a team friendly contract to stay in Balmer? 

[Malike]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You weren’t a member 2 years ago but you were a member 10 years ago?

Good chance Nelson Cruz was on the special sauce.   If I knew Santander was going to age like Nelson Cruz and not like your average player I’d be ok with a 3-4 year deal but chances are that he’s a liability in RF within the next 2-3 years and should be DH.   A 3 year deal is something to think about at the end of the year.  A 4 year deal seems unwise.   A QA seems like the best bet at this point.

I was just about to post this. So either he was banned and has a new account or he just has a terrible memory when it comes to "I told you so's".

Edited June 22 by Malike

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he gets a multi year extension for less AAV.

Starling Marte got 4/78 last offseason at 30. Santander is a SH and a much better defender. Does he get more than that?  

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

 I'm going to assume the team knows his real strengths and weaknesses and they are putting him in a position where he can succeed. 

Yes, because we know that the team would never overmanage based on traditional platoon stats. 

[Malike]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Yes, because we know that the team would never overmanage based on traditional platoon stats. 

Like I said, if you want a replacement level player over 650 ABs give O'Hearn those ABs and you'll be the first person on this board whining about him and why are they playing him everyday.

[DirtyBird]

22 minutes ago, Malike said:

Like I said, if you want a replacement level player over 650 ABs give O'Hearn those ABs and you'll be the first person on this board whining about him and why are they playing him everyday.

There is zero evidence that he would be a replacement level player if given more AB’s vs LHP, and even if he was a replacement level player vs LHP, it would still be an upgrade to a lineup with McCann starting.

Westburg has a .182/.229/.349 slash line vs LHP, but management tried to put him in the leadoff spot vs LHP. 

Edited June 22 by DirtyBird

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

There is zero evidence that he would be a replacement level player if given more AB’s vs LHP, and even if he was a replacement level player vs LHP, it would still be an upgrade to a lineup with McCann starting.

Oh, I didn't know O'Hearn could catch. Do you think he's getting 650 ABs at DH? O'Hearn would be playing the field, a lot, even you are smart enough to know that playing him every day over a full season, you'd probably be lucky to get positive WAR. They are using him masterfully, he's not an everyday player.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Otter said:

I'm surprised to see so many posters wanting to give him a contract extension after his current hot streak.  I see no harm in giving the QO and seeing if he takes it or not.  But why take a chance on a big contract for a guy in his 30s who will most likely be declining in those years when we have two outstanding prospects in Kjerstad and Mayo who could take over RF next season?  Isn't that the point of drafting Kjerstad 2nd overall to take over for an expensive soon to be declining veteran??  Yes, I know we "should" have money to spend this offseason....but I want every penny going to pitching....we have tons of position player options in our system already.

The harm in offering the QO is that if he accepts, suddenly 20% of the payroll is sunk into one player who, as you pointed out, is approaching his expected declining years.  Payroll should increase in 2025 so that percentage will come down, but if you want to gamble, you not only risk having to forfeit whatever money is involved, but also a significant amount of flexibility when it comes to the rest of your overall strategy. 

The only way to be smart about qualifying offers IMO is to offer one if you think the player will be worth the price and you've calculated that it would cost more per year in FA to retain him.  Sure, there's the supplemental draft pick, but supplemental draft picks are consolation prizes, not the point.  I don't see Elias gambling with his eye on the consolation prize, especially given the very low chance of success with draft picks.

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, Malike said:

Oh, I didn't know O'Hearn could catch. Do you think he's getting 650 ABs at DH? O'Hearn would be playing the field, a lot, even you are smart enough to know that playing him every day over a full season, you'd probably be lucky to get positive WAR. They are using him masterfully, he's not an everyday player.

I’m sorry, I thought we had a switch hitting catcher that DH’s just about every game where we face a LH starter. Am I mistaken?

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

The harm in offering the QO is that if he accepts, suddenly 20% of the payroll is sunk into one player who, as you pointed out, is approaching his expected declining years.  Payroll should increase in 2025 so that percentage will come down, but if you want to gamble, you not only risk having to forfeit whatever money is involved, but also a significant amount of flexibility when it comes to the rest of your overall strategy. 

The only way to be smart about qualifying offers IMO is to offer one if you think the player will be worth the price and you've calculated that it would cost more per year in FA to retain him.  Sure, there's the supplemental draft pick, but supplemental draft picks are consolation prizes, not the point.  I don't see Elias gambling with his eye on the consolation prize, especially given the very low chance of success with draft picks.

Someone will pay him. For 3 years he's been 20% or better than the league average, he's a switch hitter with 30+ HR power and won't kill a team in the OF. The way the offense is down and nearly every teams hunt for power, someone will pay him. He should absolutely be QO'd. 

[Three Run Homer]

42 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

For every Trumbo and Mancini I can show you a Cruz and a Singleton.     I never did like Trumbo.  Mancini was good but obviously his cancer and all that went with it probably took some years off of him playing wise. 

According to BB-Ref, the most similar hitters to Santander through age 28 are:  

1.  Jay Gibbons

2.  Jay Buhner

3.  Mark Trumbo

4.  Carlos Quentin

5. Deron Johnson

6.  Willie Kirlkland

7.  Bo Jackson

8.  Nick Esasky

9.  Josh Reddick

10. Paul O'Neill

A few of these guys (Buhner, Johnson, O'Neill) remained effective past their early 30's, but a lot of them fell off a cliff at age 30 (Esasky, Gibbons) or 31 (Quentin, Trumbo, Reddick).  

 

[Malike]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

I’m sorry, I thought we had a switch hitting catcher that DH’s just about every game where we face a LH starter. Am I mistaken?

Right so if O'Hearn can't DH because the backup catcher has to play a ton, then you are playing him in the field to get those full seasons of ABs. That sounds like a great idea, what could possibly go wrong with him playing in the field every day? Why you even brought McCann into it is a head-scratcher. O'Hearn can't possibly replace McCann but you'd rather have his bat in the lineup. Okay.

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

Right so if O'Hearn can't DH because the backup catcher has to play a ton, then you are playing him in the field to get those full seasons of ABs. That sounds like a great idea, what could possibly go wrong with him playing in the field every day? Why you even brought McCann into it is a head-scratcher. O'Hearn can't possibly replace McCann but you'd rather have his bat in the lineup. Okay.

Who is the DH if we face a LH starter in the playoffs?