Poll - Would you trade Cowser, McDermott, Norby, and Stowers for Crochet?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Which increases the chances substantially for a second injury.  
 

I’m not saying he’s not a good pitcher.  I’m just saying there’s a greater chance he gets injured vs. provides us with value.  I’d rather get a rental this season and look for another guy on a one year deal in the off-season.  
 

If we can deal from players not projected to be part of the 2025 team, then I’d be interested. 

How many starting pitchers do you think they need to add for next season?

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many starting pitchers do you think they need to add for next season?

Hard to tell at this point.  Going into next season I’d like to have 9 guys that could start throughout the course of the season.  They will likely need to add 2 SP.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Hard to tell at this point.  Going into next season I’d like to have 9 guys that could start throughout the course of the season.  They will likely need to add 2 SP.  

While I don't think this deal gets done I don't think a team in their window should be looking to add multiple rotation pieces on one year deals every off season.

 

[emmett16]

29 minutes ago, Malike said:

Where do you see that a player is more likely to get injured a second time, can you cite the study for that, please? I honestly don't know where to look.

We tend to overvalue our prospects to absurdity here. If Elias had a single taker for Norby or Stowers as a headliner, they'd have been gone already. They are both defensive liabilities and neither have near the upside with the bat as Kjerstad does.

I like Cowser fine, but nothing about a guy with that much swing-and-miss in his game and occasional pop with good defense screams star player to me. I know the pretty red statcast lines are nice to look at, but expected stats do not win games, nor are they predictive of future success.

So I May be wrong.  Looking online I’m not seeing anything definitive.  I thought I had read it in a Book and  I am going to continue to research and look through some books on the arm.  I may have confused the likelihood of a second TJ with the poor success rates of a second TJ which pops up a bunch doing a quick search.  
 

I’m with you on overvaluing the prospects.  I’m a believe in Cowser and see him as a major contributor next year.  I’m fine getting rid of some guys who don’t factor into 2025 starting roles. I think we are just seeing the very start of what Cowser will become. 
 

I’ll be sure to get back to you on the 2nd TJ question after flipping through some books. 

[1fingerwillie]

53 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If they are World Series bound which is he goal he’d have to pitch more than twice. 

Yes of course. My point being if he only pitched twice in the off season that would be serious value this season seeing that we would then have him for the next two years.

[emmett16]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

While I don't think this deal gets done I don't think a team in their window should be looking to add multiple rotation pieces on one year deals every off season.

 

Thats fair and I tend to agree. I think we might be in line for a 3 year deal this off-season for a tier 2 type starter. Maybe the FO will surprise us.  We should be able to count on Bradish & Wells to reinforce the pitching towards the end of the season.  They would factor into my 9-10 SP candidates for the year. 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Where do you see that a player is more likely to get injured a second time, can you cite the study for that, please? I honestly don't know where to look.

We tend to overvalue our prospects to absurdity here. If Elias had a single taker for Norby or Stowers as a headliner, they'd have been gone already. They are both defensive liabilities and neither have near the upside with the bat as Kjerstad does.

I like Cowser fine, but nothing about a guy with that much swing-and-miss in his game and occasional pop with good defense screams star player to me. I know the pretty red statcast lines are nice to look at, but expected stats do not win games, nor are they predictive of future success.

From what I’ve been finding a SP has a 26-36% chance of having a TJ in their career.  Pitchers with a TJ have a 28-37% chance of a future arm injury.  Success rate for #1 is 80-90%.  Success rate for #2 55-78%

https://www.mlb.com/pitch-smart/tommy-john-faq

I still need to flip through The Arm which is where I thought I read that the first surgery puts you at higher risk for a second, but I can’t find anything online. 
 

[Rustbelt]

Crochet trade should happen during the offseason.  He pitched more inning this season than his entire career up to this year.  The Whote Sox should have limited his inning considering his history of injuries.  Also, how will he respond after doubling or even tripling his career inning in 2024?  There are enough pitchers who had great 1/2 season then completely fall apart. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

58 minutes ago, Rustbelt said:

Crochet trade should happen during the offseason.  He pitched more inning this season than his entire career up to this year.  The Whote Sox should have limited his inning considering his history of injuries.  Also, how will he respond after doubling or even tripling his career inning in 2024?  There are enough pitchers who had great 1/2 season then completely fall apart. 

This. It feels like the proposed package might be heavier or close to on par with what we got for Bedard (deeper throughout even if not quite as strong at very top). Meanwhile, the target hasn’t logged 100 IP in a pro season

[sportsfan8703]

You guys are right… the White Sox shouldn’t ask for the same package they rejected for Cease with Crochet having 3 postseasons instead of two. 

Perfectly sound logic.  Not delusional at all.

Somewhere, out there, Rick Pitino is saying “ I don’t know who Y’all want, but They ain’t walking through the door…”

Edited Saturday at 11:51 by sportsfan8703

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

This. It feels like the proposed package might be heavier or close to on par with what we got for Bedard (deeper throughout even if not quite as strong at very top). Meanwhile, the target hasn’t logged 100 IP in a pro season

101.1 this season. 

[sportsfan8703]

For all the people that voted “No”… you’re not the first person in the history of civilization to try and buy wine with beer money.

Also, don’t let a cow costume gimmick stop you from making a trade. See chapter 3 of moneyball. 

Edited Saturday at 12:27 by sportsfan8703

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You guys are right… the White Sox shouldn’t ask for the same package they rejected for Cease with Crochet having 3 postseasons instead of two. 

Perfectly sound logic.  Not delusional at all.

Somewhere, out there, Rick Pitino is saying “ I don’t know who Y’all want, but They ain’t walking through the door…”

Where are you getting that the Os offered this package for Cease?  I never saw anything like that.

Edited Saturday at 12:33 by Sports Guy

[BohKnowsBmore]

51 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

101.1 this season. 

Right. And a cumulative 63 IP across 0 GS the prior 4 seasons. 

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

For all the people that voted “No”… you’re not the first person in the history of civilization to try and buy wine with beer money.

Also, don’t let a cow costume gimmick stop you from making a trade. See chapter 3 of moneyball. 

For the people voting yes, don’t let the idea that Crochet is a monster risk and has no history of doing anything that he’s doing stop you from trading a lot of talent for a hope And a prayer.