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Outfield PA the rest of the way

Frobby

By Frobby
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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted
Just now, Frobby said:

Cowser has a .607 OPS over his last 63 games, hitting .180 in that time.  He’s also been awful in high leverage situations (.385 OPS), with runners in scoring position (.572), with a runner on 3B and less than two out (.568 OPS and has advanced the runner only 6 of 22 times, which is the worst ratio in MLB of 83 players with 18+ opportunities).  He hasn’t played like one of our best three outfitters for quite a long time now.   I’m not against flat out benching him but his time should be reduced significantly until he starts hitting better, and learning to do better in important situations.  

Yeah, but that statcast is red!

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LGOrioles
LGOrioles

Hays has certainly hit a lot better lately but he is just feasting on LHP’s. His wRC+ against RHP’s is 73, so he should not be taking any AB’s away against RHP’s from Cowser (or Mullins/Kjerstad/Santa

Frobby
Frobby

So far this year, the Orioles’ OF PA (1,078) have been allocated as follows: Santander (302) 28.0% Mullins (272) 25.2% Cowser (268) 24.9% Hays (136) 12.6% O’Hearn (45) 4.2%

Malike
Malike

The problem is his numbers keep going down. He's going to be below 2 fWAR soon, his wRC+ has plummeted and it's actually lower than Hays'. If you bring him in as a defensive replacement in a close gam

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Kinda weird for a guy that looks almost exclusively at K rate and whiffs for pitchers. 

I love statcast, it has a bunch of great information but it's easily misleading. Expected stats are not predictive at all but people cite them as if they are. I can't name a single time that Expected stats won a baseball game, but that's just me.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d love to know what it looks like over the last 63 games.   

The idea that is still very high means it’s not just because of a few good weeks. 

On our last home stand, his BaBiP was .071z

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Malike said:

I love statcast, it has a bunch of great information but it's easily misleading. Expected stats are not predictive at all but people cite them as if they are. I can't name a single time that Expected stats won a baseball game, but that's just me.

This is silly. So a guy who makes good swing decisions, hits the ball hard, good bat speed, good barrel rates, etc…and whose expected stats are way higher isn’t someone you would expect to improve?  Thats legit stupid if you feel that way.

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

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Posted
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

This is silly. So a guy who makes good swing decisions, hits the ball hard, good bat speed, good barrel rates, etc…and whose expected stats are way higher isn’t someone you would expect to improve?  Thats legit stupid if you feel that way.

Are you saying expected stats are a good predictor of future success? It's a simple yes or no question.

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LGOrioles Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

LGOrioles

Posted
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32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d love to know what it looks like over the last 63 games.   

Looks like his 100 PA rolling xwOBA going back to the end of May has hovered between .330 and .360 for the most part, without ever falling below league average. That probably only covers his last 30 games though, which were better production wise at least than the 30 games before that.  

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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12 minutes ago, Malike said:

Are you saying expected stats are a good predictor of future success? It's a simple yes or no question.

No, not at all.

Im saying guys who hammer the ball and show a lot of characteristics of good hitters are more prone to be good at hitting a baseball than players who don’t do those things.

Yes he has a hole in his swing and if he never gets better, never develops and never learns anything, he is likely no more than a really good fielding, platoon guy with elite speed..which still makes him one of our 3 best OFers.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Malike said:

Are you saying expected stats are a good predictor of future success? It's a simple yes or no question.

And to be clear, you don’t think Irvin’s page being blue is predictive of him, right?  Like, that means nothing for the future?  If so, why did you keep showing it?

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No, not at all.

Im saying guys who hammer the ball and show a lot of characteristics of good hitters are more prone to be good at hitting a baseball than players who don’t do those things.

Yes he has a hole in his swing and if he never gets better, never develops and never learns anything, he is likely no more than a really good fielding, platoon guy with elite speed..which still makes him one of our 3 best OFers.

Okay, I say use him properly, ie in a platoon and you laugh like that's a silly notion when it's a likely outcome, but then acknowledge it's a possibility. Strange.

He shouldn't play every day if he's OPS'ing .600 on a team that is trying to win a World Series, you play the guys who are hitting.

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