Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

[Gentile4]

6 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Agree. Unfortunately, he sucked more when he caught.

 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

My concern is that I think a lot of the rumored contract numbers are being driven by his name being “Corbin Burnes” and folks knowing that a few years ago he was probably the greatest pitcher of the moment. 

Which is probably relevant to some extent, because the raw talent/makeup of those who manage to reach the very peak of the mountain does often seem to keep them in the “good” category for longer than others. 

But in terms of evaluating who Burnes is right now, what’s the difference between him and a Joe Musgrove (when he was up for a new deal a couple seasons ago)?

Musgrove got 5/$100M to stay with the Padres after that 2022 season. Seems like we’re envisioning a pretty steep upcharge for the brand name version.

This really only works if you're looking at 2 years of data.  Look at 4 years of data and suddenly Burnes looks like a vastly better bet.  Burnes has had an era under 3 for 3 out of the last 4 seasons plus the covid year.  Musgrove only 1 prior to signing the deal. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Hallas

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Maybe … but I think Rubinstein will be interested in Corbin returning. I don’t think they can get a better replacement for less in Free Agency and think finding another rental is unwise considering what they’ve already moved. 

I can see them pursuing him and I wouldn’t be against it. But anyone who thinks he’s signing for 4/120, or that there’s a big FA SP class, needs a better editor. 

[waroriole]

Nola got 7/172 last year from the Phillies and that felt like a home team discount. Burnes enter FA at the same age, with a similar pedigree. You never even saw a MASN puff pieces about how much he’s enjoyed his year in Baltimore. Might cost 6/200. 

[e16bball]

40 minutes ago, Hallas said:

This really only works if you're looking at 2 years of data.  Look at 4 years of data and suddenly Burnes looks like a vastly better bet.  Burnes has had an era under 3 for 3 out of the last 4 seasons plus the covid year.  Musgrove only 1 prior to signing the deal. 

Well, sure. If you want to incorporate 2020-22 heavily into your calculus, obviously then you’re looping in Burnes’s elite CY years, and his average numbers would look much better than he’s been in the past two years.

But as a pretty sharp guy said earlier in this thread:

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

I don't think his 95-97th percentile whiff rate from 2021-2022 is coming back but we can probably count on his current whiff rate going forward. 

 

[Just Regular]

Something that was an open question during much of the year was if Burnes' line about not trying for strikeouts was BS.

Broadly I think he gave the market evidence in the end game that he is a master craftsman, and of course 30 year old pitchers have to regulate intensity to complete the season.

The 2021 season was just weird.     At ages 25-26, he got most of a year off, and then he got babied like basically every pitcher in the world in Year 1 after COVID.

In 2022 they pushed him for more, and the per-batter effectiveness eroded, setting up that notable 2023 Arbitration hearing that helped make him a 2024 Oriole.

A GM wanting his services....don't nitpick.    There will be bidders.

Unless Rubenstein is planning for three or more mega contracts at the end of the decade, I think there are places it makes more sense to go.

[oriolediehard]

Yankees will sign Burnes!  The Yankees are the richest team in sports!!  I don't have proof of that!

[Bemorewins]

If the Nola contract is the standard and even if it comes with an opt out you do it. You almost have to. This team is demonstrably worse without Corbin Burnes. It's not just his ability to anchor the top of the rotation in the playoffs. But it's also his ability to post every 5 days and give you the necessary length/innings you need to help preserve your bullpen.

I don't see a realistic scenario where we let Burnes walk and then do not sign another top level pitcher and are better next season. I know that I have stated this befofe, but I am not confident at all that Eflin, Rodriguez, Kremer, Suarez, and Povich is a rotation that will allow you to qualify for a playoff birth. And it is certainly not one that will have a good shot at winning the AL East. Tampa will have their real elite staff back next year. We can't afford to go into a gun fight in 2025 with a water pistol.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Yankees will sign Burnes!  The Yankees are the richest team in sports!!  I don't have proof of that!

This is a very inaccurate statement. The Yankees aren't even the richest team in MLB. Look at Hal Steinbrenner's net worth compared to Steven Cohen's. It's particularly close. Like not at all. Cohen is worth more than FOUR TIMES as much.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Yankees will sign Burnes!  The Yankees are the richest team in sports!!  I don't have proof of that!

It's actually the Cowboys but I don't think they need any pitching.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

This is a very inaccurate statement. The Yankees aren't even the richest team in MLB. Look at Hal Steinbrenner's net worth compared to Steven Cohen's. It's particularly close. Like not at all. Cohen is worth more than FOUR TIMES as much.

Richest owner and richest team are different things.

If you go by most valuable teams the Yankees are very high up there.

If you go by richest owner it's the Clippers owner.

[Warehouse]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

My concern is that I think a lot of the rumored contract numbers are being driven by his name being “Corbin Burnes” and folks knowing that a few years ago he was probably the greatest pitcher of the moment. 

Which is probably relevant to some extent, because the raw talent/makeup of those who manage to reach the very peak of the mountain does often seem to keep them in the “good” category for longer than others. 

But in terms of evaluating who Burnes is right now, what’s the difference between him and a Joe Musgrove (when he was up for a new deal a couple seasons ago)?

Musgrove got 5/$100M to stay with the Padres after that 2022 season. Seems like we’re envisioning a pretty steep upcharge for the brand name version.

The Musgrove deal was viewed as a team-friendly hometown discount extension at the time.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Richest owner and richest team are different things.

If you go by most valuable teams the Yankees are very high up there.

If you go by richest owner it's the Clippers owner.

The team's valuation only matters at time of sale. The owner's wealth in an uncapped sport like MLB determines how much the team can spend.

Steve Cohen by any metric available has tons more millions to SPEND than Hal Steinbrenner. Steve Cohen has even operated at a deficit over 100 million before which I believe was in 2023. And most importantly he has the WILL to get into the deepest of pools when it comes to FA as he has already shown in his short time owning the Mets.

[Just Regular]

I'll celebrate whoever we get in a high echelon of MLB talent, but unfortunately unpacking this season too soon I think I don't even really want to win the Burnes bidding.

Elias will value the next half season of information on Felix, Grayson and Bradish to figure out who goes with Eflin.     The growth he showed this year winning the Burnes and Eflin trade markets adds confidence he'll staff the top of the pitching roster appropriately in July 2025.

If he is very risk averse with Kremer, Povich and Suarez, people would flip out but people like Kyle Gibson, Patrick Corbin and Jose Quintana hit me as safe innings he might actually pursue.

[Warehouse]

42 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The team's valuation only matters at time of sale. The owner's wealth in an uncapped sport like MLB determines how much the team can spend.

Steve Cohen by any metric available has tons more millions to SPEND than Hal Steinbrenner. Steve Cohen has even operated at a deficit over 100 million before which I believe was in 2023. And most importantly he has the WILL to get into the deepest of pools when it comes to FA as he has already shown in his short time owning the Mets.

I’d like to see a study showing that team spending is more closely correlated to owner net worth than team revenue.  There are rare instances where a team owner will subsidize spending (e.g., Cohen) but that’s the exception not the rule - and note that Cohen owns 97% of the Mets vs a much lower % for Rubinstein.  Rubinstein has already been explicit that he is not in this to lose money.