Trading for Tarik Skubal

[O's84]

33 minutes ago, Malike said:

Like this?

 

[Big Mac]

39 minutes ago, Malike said:

Like this?

 

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on the internet which is an extremely high bar to clear. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Like this?

 

What, they’re not getting Gunnar and Adley too?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Like this?

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The Orioles have no high-end prospects outside of Holliday apparently. This is a sports talk radio guy, heh.

 

I think it's common to have a basketball/football mindset when it comes to baseball. Especially if you're some kind of talk sports generalist. They imply that you get an ace starter and:

a) he's going to be an ace at this level though his contract, never going to have an off year and
b) that means the O's chances at winning the Series go from 10% to 50% or whatever.

The reality is that starting pitching is exceptionally volatile, look at last year's Cy Young candidates. Less than half of the pitchers who got Cy Young votes in '23 have any chance whatsoever of getting any Cy Young votes this year.

And Skubal's impact on the O's Series chances are like pushing them from 8% to 11%. Nobody in baseball has Fangraphs odds of winning it all more than 15%. No joking, adding Skubal moves the O's from 92% chance of not winning it all to something like 89%. And that's if they're not giving up current talent like Kjerstad and Westburg. If they do it's essentially a push.

Edited July 19 by DrungoHazewood

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think it's common to have a basketball/football mindset when it comes to baseball. Especially if you're some kind of talk sports generalist. They imply that you get an ace starter and:

a) he's going to be an ace at this level though his contract, never going to have an off year and
b) that means the O's chances at winning the Series go from 10% to 50% or whatever.

The reality is that starting pitching is exceptionally volatile, look at last year's Cy Young candidates. Less than half of the pitchers who got Cy Young votes in '23 have any chance whatsoever of getting any Cy Young votes this year.

And Skubal's impact on the O's Series chances are like pushing them from 8% to 11%. Nobody in baseball has Fangraphs odds of winning it all more than 15%. No joking, adding Skubal moves the O's from 92% chance of not winning it all to something like 89%. And that's if they're not giving up current talent like Kjerstad and Westburg. If they do it's essentially a push.

With that perspective, who do you think performs better in 2nd half?  Snell or Skubal? 

Edited July 19 by sportsfan8703

[Rbiggs2525]

58 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With that perspective, who do you think performs better in 2nd half?  Snell or Skubal? 

Isn’t Skubal 30 innings from uncharted territory for him?

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, Big Mac said:

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on the internet which is an extremely high bar to clear. 

They missed Gunnar. I am sure he would be part of it too. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

What, they’re not getting Gunnar and Adley too?

Not enough service time left.

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not enough service time left.

Let’s trade them Adley.  Give us back Jobe, Greene, Tork,  Foley, Clark, and Jung. Throw in Casey Mize. 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Big Mac said:

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on the internet which is an extremely high bar to clear. 

Kjerstan...is that a former Soviet republic in Scandinavia?

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, baltfan said:

Lots of stuff here about Tigers’ fans wanting at least two of the top 3.  

That’s nice.  Who cares what their fans want?   Is that what their GM will insist upon?   That’s the relevant question.  You can argue about whether that would be a reasonable demand, but I don’t see the Orioles meeting such a requirement.  

[G54377]

I think we go with a rental bullpen arm and find the best deal for a starter with control left beyond this season. BUT not Skubal or Chrochet who end up not budging on their ridiculous demand. Fedde, Taillon, Bassitt, Eflin, Quantril all likely options. We'd still be able to trade for a rental if we needed to.

[jamesenoch]

 

Interesting conversation from the POV of Detroit fans.

[Bemorewins]

15 hours ago, G54377 said:

I think we go with a rental bullpen arm and find the best deal for a starter with control left beyond this season. BUT not Skubal or Crochet who end up not budging on their ridiculous demand. Fedde, Taillon, Bassitt, Eflin, Quantril all likely options. We'd still be able to trade for a rental if we needed to.

I hope not. If Burnes walks at the end of the season, we are going to need a #1 in '25. None of those pitchers that you mentioned (Fedde, Tailon, Bassit, Eflin, Quantril are that.

So even if we bring one in (to be our #3 this year and next), what would be your plan to get a #1 next season?