The Marlins Series, 7/23-7/25

[Just Regular]

Sifting some of the team numbers has a few fun nuggets.

Last 30 Days, as RP, fWAR gives the Marlins the #1 standing in MLB, 50% ahead of the 2nd place team.     During this time, both Tanner Scott and AJ Puk have 0.00 ERA's and they have combined for a 33/6 K/BB in 23.2 innings.

On the year however, Marlins Bats wRC+ is one of only two Clubs below 80 along with the White Sox, and Marlins Arms as SP are MLB-worst.

It was new to me tonight Max Meyer has been healthy all year, and was actually good in three MLB April starts.     But then he was demoted to AAA for load management purposes where at age 25 he has been one of the better pitchers in the league.    

Jazz Chisholm recently shifted to 2B for showcasing purposes.

[Sports Guy]

Hopefully we leave with Luzardo and Nardi

[sportsfan8703]

Finally a series where it seems like we have a good pitching advantage.

[eddie83]

Want 2/3. Would love sweep if we can be greedy. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I'm going Tuesday and Wednesday night

[Frobby]

Presumably the pitching matchups are: 

Suarez (5-3, 2.82 ERA) vs. ???  Suárez faced the Marlins for 3 innings in 2017 and allowed 3 runs, a fairly irrelevant fact to Tuesday’s matchup.  Well see who he faces.

Burnes (10-4, 2.38) vs. Edward Cabrera (1-3, 7.36).  Burnes has a 1.95 ERA in 27.1  career innings against the Marlins. Cabrera has never faced the Orioles.

Rodriguez (12-4, 3.83) vs. Roddery Muñoz (1-5, 5.14).  Neither pitcher has ever faced the other team.

The Orioles’ offense was slumping before the All Star Break but looked refreshed against Texas.  They are 2nd in MLB at 4.98 runs/game and 1st at 120 OPS+.   The Marlins are 29th in both categories at 3.49 runs/game and 77 OPS+.   Of their 8 qualified hitters, only Jazz Chisholm barely exceeds 100 OPS+, at 102.  So, big advantage for the O’s there.

Miami’s bullpen is quite decent at 22-21 and a 3.88 ERA (15th).  As @Just Regularmentioned, Tanner Scott and AJ Puk have been very dominant of late.  So, we want Miami’s starters out early to get to the softer part of their pen.  They’ve saved only 18 games in 35 chances.  The O’s pen is 19-12 with a 3.78 ERA (12th), and has saved 31 games in 46 chances.  It’s been a rougher ride of late, however, prior to the All Star Break.

Overall, we need to jump the Marlins early and not let them hang around until late in the game.   We seem to have the pitching advantage in all three games, but they don’t play the game on paper.

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

The 1-2 punch of Derek Jeter and Kim Ng stepping away from Bruce Sherman's organization I guess in today's Orioles terms would be like Cal Ripken and Mike Elias stepping away from David Rubenstein's over the next few years.

Max Meyer 3.12.1999 was one of 2020's most dominant NCAA pitchers before COVID shut things down and went 3rd in the entire draft.   He had Tommy John in August 2022 at about age 23.5, but with the 18 months to recover before Opening Day this year, was notionally fully healed at age 25.0.

It is as if somebody like Kevin Gausman for us pedigree wise made a seeming clean recovery and opened the year looking like a top of the rotation pitcher.

He was nevertheless optioned to AAA after a few starts.     Roster Resource shows him entering 2024 with 1.082 service time, and should he be recalled this week he would end 2024 just shy of 2.000 years of service, giving the MLB club controlling his rights 5 rather than 4 additional years from here.     

PitchingBot's overall ERA estimator guesses him the best of the dozen odd starting pitchers the Marlins have muddled their way ~100 games through the season with.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=26&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=20&stats=sta&qual=10&sortcol=15&sortdir=asc&pagenum=1

[Malike]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Hopefully we leave with Luzardo and Nardi

I thought we wanted to improve the team this year. I'd be happy with Nardi but Luzardo had a hurt elbow and now a back that pushed him to do the 60-day IL. If they trade for him now, the odds are much better than 0 that doesn't pitch through the end of the year, let alone be effective.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

It was new to me tonight Max Meyer has been healthy all year, and was actually good in three MLB April starts.     But then he was demoted to AAA for load management purposes where at age 25 he has been one of the better pitchers in the league.    

It's really crazy what they are doing. Can't think of a comparable example. If they need to manage his load they should stick him in the bullpen. I feel like if Elias pulled this move the board here would be going ballistic. 

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Malike said:

I thought we wanted to improve the team this year. I'd be happy with Nardi but Luzardo had a hurt elbow and now a back that pushed him to do the 60-day IL. If they trade for him now, the odds are much better than 0 that doesn't pitch through the end of the year, let alone be effective.

Luzardo is a long term move for me but he should also be pitching by the end of August and he will be a fresh arm with big upside if he’s ready to go.  He would not be my only SP acquisition.

[Just Regular]

It was notable Passan spoke of Trevor Rogers as an ordinarily available future ex-Marlin.

Miami Marlins: All out. The aggressiveness with which the Marlins are approaching this deadline was foretold by their dealing of All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez in early May. Almost certainly gone are the team's lone impending free agents: closer Tanner Scott -- one of the gems of the deadline -- and, if they can find a taker for at least some of his hefty salary, first baseman Josh Bell. How many others join them is the mystery. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a popular name because of his age (26), control (through the end of 2026), versatility (center field and second base) and talent (bountiful), but fears about his ability to stay healthy and brashness have limited his market. A.J. Puk has returned to dominance in the bullpen (2.22 ERA, 30-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio) since his ill-fated stint as a starter. Left-hander Trevor Rogers is a backup option for teams seeking starting pitching. And the Marlins have an array of retread relievers (Calvin Faucher, Declan Cronin, Huascar Brazoban) who have pitched well.

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

It's really crazy what they are doing. Can't think of a comparable example. If they need to manage his load they should stick him in the bullpen. I feel like if Elias pulled this move the board here would be going ballistic. 

Load management or player control management?   Meyer and the MLBPA can't  be too happy 

[camdencrush]

I think Puk and Nardi improve our bullpen a ton if we could get both.

[Safelykept]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Luzardo is a long term move for me but he should also be pitching by the end of August and he will be a fresh arm with big upside if he’s ready to go.  He would not be my only SP acquisition.

Me too, really good trade target both both of them, more importantly you would get Lazardo at a discount with 2 plusyears of control. Dont think it would take any of our top 4, which it what we should be doing, IMHO. remember Skubal and others are one pitch away from Bradish Felix Means Wells etc...

[Frobby]

Looks like the “mystery guest” starter for Miami tonight is Kyle Tyler, who has a 3.38 ERA in 4 appearances, 3 starts for Miami this year.  He made 3 starts in late June/early July but was sent back to AAA.  After a July 4 start for Miami, his only appearance was a July 12 start in AAA.   So, he hasn’t pitched in 11 days and has only pitched once in the last 19 days.