Grade the Eflin Trade

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It was a flipping zero …. Even if it was a future potential move. There is almost no chance that Rogers out WARs Norby moving forward much less the years of control period. 

And Joey Ortiz is virtually a lock to out-WAR Corbin Burnes during their respective periods of control.

Should we have not made the trade then?

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

And Joey Ortiz is virtually a lock to out-WAR Corbin Burnes during their respective periods of control.

Should we have not made the trade then?

I expect our new ownership group to extend Burnes…That said it’s apples and oranges. Burnes was an ace and Rogers a 5 ERA pitcher.

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

And Joey Ortiz is virtually a lock to out-WAR Corbin Burnes during their respective periods of control.

Should we have not made the trade then?

If we weren't going to make the deadline moves to compete for a world series, we should not have made the move.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I expect our new ownership group to extend Burnes…That said it’s apples and oranges. Burnes was an ace and Rogers a 5 ERA pitcher.

It's not apples and oranges though. You set the criteria for judging a trade as total WAR produced during the period of team control, and by that criteria, the Orioles are going to lose the Burnes trade by a mile.

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

If we weren't going to make the deadline moves to compete for a world series, we should not have made the move.

In your opinion.

 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

It's not apples and oranges though. You set the criteria for judging a trade as total WAR produced during the period of team control, and by that criteria, the Orioles are going to lose the Burnes trade by a mile.

In your opinion.

 

So one player was productive in 2024 which is why he was acquired. The other did nothing but lose games for us and get sent to the minors if you can’t see the difference, I can’t help,

Edited 2 hours ago by Roll Tide

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It was a flipping zero …. Even if it was a future potential move. There is almost no chance that Rogers out WARs Norby moving forward much less the years of control period. 

You mean the guy who can’t play defense?  That will keep his WAR down and that assumes he hits. Lots of really bad assumptions being made here.

[Can_of_corn]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean the guy who can’t play defense?  That will keep his WAR down and that assumes he hits. Lots of really bad assumptions being made here.

Norby had a hot start for the Fish.

He ended up with .2 rWAR/ .1 fWAR in 178 at bats for the season.

He's a guy that may or not be in the majors in three years.

[sportsfan8703]

Rogers did not impact the 2024 regular season or the post season in any way. If he is even a #5 SP the next two seasons, any gives us a 0.0 WAR, then I’d still make the trade. Norby was never going to play here and it was just a matter of what we could get for him.

It’s ok to still root for Norby, Ortiz, Hall, etc…  it’s not one or the other.

The Eflin deal was a win.  It can end up being a win-win.

Remember, we all say that the Norris-Hader deal, and the Miller-Ed Rod deal, were “bad” trades. Well, those were playoff games we actually won and they impacted big time in those wins.

Judging trades WAR vs WAR doesn’t make sense when you factor in how much is playoff performance worth?  And… how much are the last two months of the season worth while trying to make the playoffs?  It’s subjective I guess. 

I really enjoyed winning the playoff series vs Detroit in 2014.  I really enjoyed knowing that we had a stud in Burnes going in game 1 and a tested vet going in game 2.  That’s just my opinion, so it was worth it to me.

Edited 56 minutes ago by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Rogers did not impact the 2024 regular season or the post season in any way. If he is even a #5 SP the next two seasons, any gives us a 0.0 WAR, then I’d still make the trade. Norby was never going to play here and it was just a matter of what we could get for him.

It’s ok to still root for Norby, Ortiz, Hall, etc…  it’s not one or the other.

The Eflin deal was a win.  It can end up being a win-win.

Remember, we all say that the Norris-Hader deal, and the Miller-Ed Rod deal, were “bad” trades. Well, those were playoff games we actually won and they impacted big time in those wins.

Judging trades WAR vs WAR doesn’t make sense when you factor in how much is playoff performance worth?  And… how much are the last two months of the season worth while trying to make the playoffs?  It’s subjective I guess. 

I really enjoyed winning the playoff series vs Detroit in 2014.  I really enjoyed knowing that we had a stud in Burnes going in game 1 and a tested vet going in game 2.  That’s just my opinion, so it was worth it to me.

I stand by calling the Norris trade bad.

He didn't help the 2013 team make the playoffs, he got released during the 2015 season and the 2014 team won the division going away. 

As for the playoffs, he was a net -2.5% WPA for the O's.

Giving up three for one when the contract attached was roughly market value for that is a poor trade.

 

[Roll Tide]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean the guy who can’t play defense?  That will keep his WAR down and that assumes he hits. Lots of really bad assumptions being made here.

Okay …Rogers hasn’t been a good pitcher since 2021. That’s all I need to know 7+ ERA after the trade.

Perhaps Elias needs to employ a new strategy when drafting that includes whether the draftee can adequately defend at the big league level. Drafting SS and CF obviously isn’t good enough.Either way it was a dumpster move, save your integrity and admit that much! Hell, admit they could’ve gotten more for Norby and Stowers than a 5+ era starter.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Okay …Rogers hasn’t been a good pitcher since 2021. That’s all I need to know 7+ ERA after the trade.

Perhaps Elias needs to employ a new strategy when drafting that includes whether the draftee can adequately defend at the big league level. Drafting SS and CF obviously isn’t good enough.Either way it was a dumpster move, save your integrity and admit that much! Hell, admit they could’ve gotten more for Norby and Stowers than a 5+ era starter.

But he cares a lot about defense.

 

[DirtyBird]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Rogers did not impact the 2024 regular season or the post season in any way. If he is even a #5 SP the next two seasons, any gives us a 0.0 WAR, then I’d still make the trade. Norby was never going to play here and it was just a matter of what we could get for him.

A deadline trade that does not impact the season in any way is a bad trade for a "buyer".

That said, it is impossible to say it did not impact the season when. Had the trade not been made at all, Norby would have been available when we had injuries, or for the 100 plate appearances we gave Eloy The Clown.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

A deadline trade that does not impact the season in any way is a bad trade for a "buyer".

That said, it is impossible to say it did not impact the season when. Had the trade not been made at all, Norby would have been available when we had injuries, or for the 100 plate appearances we gave Eloy The Clown.

I don't think Norby existing in the farm system would have impacted Eloy.