Adley is in an otherworldly slump right now

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Good DD and all very true. 

I don't think anyone is saying that AR is not a very good player.  He is and anyone saying otherwise is just trolling.  I think what some of us are saying is that A) he probably will never be an elite/greatest of all time type of player-which when he got drafted I think a lot of people fell into the hype of believing.  And B) drafting a catcher 1-1 can be problematic just because of the nature of the position.  It can be taxing and wear down a player well before their time.  So is it worth it to draft a catcher first overall?

Which is why I think moving him to fulltime DH or first base (and maybe even a little back up catcher) when SB is ready is to me the smart thing to do.  He isn't that good defensively where he will be missed.  But you could greatly extend his career and improve his hitting playing him at a much less physically demanding position. 

Rutschman has 12.5 WAR through 368 games and age 26. He will probably end the year somewhere around 14. There are 19 HOF catchers. The median WAR value of those 19 catchers after age 26 is 17.  All of them debuted in the majors earlier than Rutschman, and had a head start, but he's only about three WAR off the pace of a typical HOF catcher.

If he plays another 10 years and averages just 2.5 wins per season (so far he's averaged 5 wins per 150 games) he'll end up with about 40 WAR. That's probably not enough to get him there, although Buster Posey will go in at 44 and Ernie Lombardi, Ray Schalk, and Rick Ferrell are in with less.

I think it's still plausible, if not quite yet likely, that he has a HOF-caliber career.

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you re-sign or extend a guy that has nothing to do with drafting him.

Draft picks should be viewed on what happens during the years of team control.

Who cares what round Kimbrel was drafted in?

I am not really getting your point.  But that's ok.  I am not saying that he should be re signed because of his draft position. I am saying if I am the Os brass I try my best to sign him longer term and let him play an easier position because to me he is worth it as a player, leader, and person. 

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I think it is just because AR was a 1-1...

Frobby alluded to this before, but the median #1 overall pick through history has about 12 WAR in value. So Rutschman, in 2.5 seasons, just 368 games, has been more valuable than the entire MLB careers of about half of all the #1s ever.

If you want to see what a 1-1 bust looks like, check out Delmon Young. Or Mark Appel. Or Bryan Bullington. Or Danny Goodwin, who was the #1 overall twice (didn't sign the first time) and ended up with a career value of -1.7 WAR. Brien Taylor and Steve Chilcott were 1/1s who never played a single inning in the majors.

[Roll Tide]

Heard a caller speculate that it started around the time he got beaned. Does anybody remember him getting hit ? 

[OnlyOneOriole]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Rutschman has 12.5 WAR through 368 games and age 26. He will probably end the year somewhere around 14. There are 19 HOF catchers. The median WAR value of those 19 catchers after age 26 is 17.  All of them debuted in the majors earlier than Rutschman, and had a head start, but he's only about three WAR off the pace of a typical HOF catcher.

If he plays another 10 years and averages just 2.5 wins per season (so far he's averaged 5 wins per 150 games) he'll end up with about 40 WAR. That's probably not enough to get him there, although Buster Posey will go in at 44 and Ernie Lombardi, Ray Schalk, and Rick Ferrell are in with less.

I think it's still plausible, if not quite yet likely, that he has a HOF-caliber career.

Oh I agree.  HoF is for sure something he could be capable of as a catcher.  Of course perhaps not if they move him to a different position.  He might not get into the HoF that way but I think his career, and his body, would thank him for it. 

Edited August 2 by OnlyOneOriole

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Rutschman has 12.5 WAR through 368 games and age 26. He will probably end the year somewhere around 14. There are 19 HOF catchers. The median WAR value of those 19 catchers after age 26 is 17.  All of them debuted in the majors earlier than Rutschman, and had a head start, but he's only about three WAR off the pace of a typical HOF catcher.

If he plays another 10 years and averages just 2.5 wins per season (so far he's averaged 5 wins per 150 games) he'll end up with about 40 WAR. That's probably not enough to get him there, although Buster Posey will go in at 44 and Ernie Lombardi, Ray Schalk, and Rick Ferrell are in with less.

I think it's still plausible, if not quite yet likely, that he has a HOF-caliber career.

It’s my general thought that not all #1s are created equal amd shouldn’t equal.what is the average WAR of a player that goes #1 overall. I’m not upset about his performance thus far…but he seems to struggle at the plate while catching. Is this slump caused by a HBP? His homerun power has been disappointing either way.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I am not really getting your point.  But that's ok.  I am not saying that he should be re signed because of his draft position. I am saying if I am the Os brass I try my best to sign him longer term and let him play an easier position because to me he is worth it as a player, leader, and person. 

It's simple.

A draft pick should only be graded on what they accomplished during the years of team control.

A team has him for 6 or 7 years, that is how the pick should be graded.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, OnlyOneOriole said:

Oh I agree.  HoF is for sure something could be capable of as a catcher.  Of course perhaps not if they move him to a different position.  He might not get into the HoF that way but I think his career, and his body, would thank him for it. 

I think the track record of moving mid-career catchers somewhere else to preserve their health is not good. Piazza tried to move to first, that didn't work. Bench tried to go to third, that flopped. Yogi moved to the outfield to make space for Elston Howard, and I guess that was kind of okay for a year or two.

Yes, sometimes you succeed with young guys who aren't really good catchers anyway and have a skill set that supports other positions (Dale Murphy, Carlos Delgado, Craig Biggio). But that's not Rutschman.

I would much rather keep doing what they're doing and have him get 2/3rds or 3/4ths of his time behind the plate and DH the rest.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

10?…now the 2019 draft was extremely stacked but that’s just obnoxious.

Adley has a pretty commanding lead at the point (Witt Jr aside).

bWAR career leaders (thru yesterday)

Adley (1-1) 12.6

Witt (1-2) 12.4

Kirby (1-20) 8.2

Stott (1-14) 7.8

Manoah (1-11) 7.5

Carroll (1-16) 7.2

Abrams (1-6) 7.0

Greene (1-5) 7.0

Volpe (1-30) 6.1

Lodolo (1-7) 4.2

Jung (1-8) 3.0

other guys like Vaughn (1-3), Bleday (1-4), Busch (1-31) are in MLB but poor production thus far.

And while your comment was career, I would suggest to limit the WAR count to just the 6 team control years since rest is FA eligible. 

And Adley’s WAR is hurt by the amount of times they put him at DH 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s my general thought that not all #1s are created equal amd shouldn’t equal.what is the average WAR of a player that goes #1 overall. I’m not upset about his performance thus far…but he seems to struggle at the plate while catching. Is this slump caused by a HBP? His homerun power has been disappointing either way.

The median is about 12. The typical 1/1 overall pick ends up with a career value of about where Rutschman is right now.

The range goes from Griffey Jr (118) all the way to Brien Taylor and Steve Chilcott (0 in 0 games). For a long time there were no HOF 1/1s. Today it's Chipper, Griffey, Mauer, Baines.

Edited August 2 by DrungoHazewood

[25 Nuggets]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's simple.

A draft pick should only be graded on what they accomplished during the years of team control.

A team has him for 6 or 7 years, that is how the pick should be graded.

I would at the Qualifying Offer especially if it's rejected.  That's additional draft value.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

And Adley’s WAR is hurt by the amount of times they put him at DH 

Is it, or is that keeping him fresh so that he plays better?

[OnlyOneOriole]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It's simple.

A draft pick should only be graded on what they accomplished during the years of team control.

A team has him for 6 or 7 years, that is how the pick should be graded.

So if a player like a Cal gets drafted and plays his entire career with the Os, should we only grade that pick on his first contract?  I wouldn't. 

I think a player who is drafted, extended, and plays well for his career with a team should be graded higher than a player who is drafted, plays well, but signs with another team once his first contract is up. 

I mean I understand what you are saying now, but every situation is different.  It seems 'nitpicky' to me. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, 25 Nuggets said:

I would at the Qualifying Offer especially if it's rejected.  That's additional draft value.

Shame they didn't get the draft pick.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Is it, or is that keeping him fresh so that he plays better?

No, I think it directly effects his WAR, since the WAR value for a DH is so low, especially against a C.