Our 'Elite talent pipeline' has thinned, considerably

[LookitsPuck]

I'm actually less worried about the Elias regime promoting a ton of our big name prospects than, say, past regimes. I think this comes down to the fact that we're now involved in the international market much more than past regimes and as such we see a number of names in our top prospect rankings (Basallo, Tavera, Arias, De Leon, Almeyda, Liranzo, Benscosme, Martinez, Sanchez, Mejia). It's an interesting change of pace from past regimes, but it does mean that we now have a bunch of new avenues that past regimes don't. That would be, to me:

• Better drafting
• Better analytics/process to identify waiver claims (bullpen arms), change of scenery/mechanic fix types (O'Hearn, Hicks)
• Bigger international market presence 

Now, Elias had the benefit of drafting very high and under the old draft pick rules. But he's drafted well high, developed well, and has been methodical (almost to a fault) when calling guys up to reap value (example: ROY timing for draft pick compensation).

We'll see how the regime does now that they're going to be drafting further down in the draft, and we've yet to see any success from O's drafted arms, but he has made up for it with trades and waiver claims. So we'll see.

But there's a reason why the Astros have had a sustained amount of success year in and year out. They haven't had a non-pandemic shortened season with a losing record since 2014, and have routinely finished 1st or 2nd every single one of those years. Even this year with a plethora of injuries, they've been able to buoy the ship and are not only over 500 after a rough start, but are in the thick of things in the AL West. And the Astros haven't drafted high in forever. I think the O's can have that kind of sustained success.

[Fiver6565]

The 'pipeline' had to thin.  It was a nearly historic pipeline, expecting to maintain that would have been insane (not saying the OP was expecting that).

The international guys will have to start popping in order to keep it going.  That's what has kept the Astros afloat in more recent seasons - they have maintained/extended a couple of stars like Altuve and Bregman, hit on Tucker, but otherwise its been international - Yordan Alvarez on the hitting side in particular (a trade, but identified and traded for him as a young prospect), and then all the pitching - Valdez, Urquidy, other guys who's names I've forgotten at the moment, and this year Blanco.  Plus a few BP pieces here and there that have contributed.  To me that's the most likely place we're going to hit on pitching - guys like Luis Deleon becoming a Framber Valdez type for us.  If that is able to happen, we won't be sweating our 'pipeline' very much.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm not too worried about it.  I think in the next year or so we'll really see some of the south american talent cropping up.

[Say O!]

The 2025 draft will be critical to replenishing the elite talent base, with potential for 4(!) first round picks (own, competitive balance, QO Burnes, QO Santander).

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Say O! said:

The 2025 draft will be critical to replenishing the elite talent base, with potential for 4(!) first round picks (own, competitive balance, QO Burnes, QO Santander).

I think our competitive balance pick comes at the end of the second round next year.  It alternates each year.   Now if Cowser can just win RoY, we'll be in business!

[terpoh]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

While this topic has little meaning for the 2024 Orioles, the graduations of Holliday, Mayo, and Kjerstad (despite being back at AAA) has this farm system looking fairly average (or average adjacent LOL).  This is a natural consequence of the excellent job Elias has done in drafting and developing talent.  While Basallo is a beast and among the top ten prospects in baseball, he may be our only Top 100 prospect next season, though it's possible that Bradfield could join that group.  Top 100 lists are not the end all be all, though they do give a nice overview of how the industry views these players compared to their peers.  This is not to say that we are bereft of talent, at all, but much of it appears to be years away from contributing.  

We will not be the top farm system to begin 2025, which in and of itself is a major change.  Perhaps we will find ourselves in the middle of the pack or somewhat better (10th?)?  It's hard to say, but with Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Holliday, Mayo, and Kjerstad (temporarily at AAA) up with the O's, Elias has cut the wheat from the shaft, so to speak.  We have the offensive building blocks for a great run over the coming years but must shore up the rotation to take advantage of it.   Regardless, with less top talent available to us on the farm, we may need to find other avenues of talent, such as free agency, to shore up the roster moving forward.  

Thoughts?

Note: Forgive me if someone else has brought this point up in a thread somewhere.  I don't recall it.

I would say that guys who have graduated to the Orioles are still in the pipeline- so, still looking pretty good to me! But yes, to your point, the minor league depth has taken a hit. The under the radar trade Elias made to swap Billy Cook for a minor league pitcher was an interesting one, and that guy seems intriguing. 

[The Goob]

Adley - 26, Westburg - 25, Gunnar - 23, Holliday - 20, Mayo - 22, Cowser - 24, Kjerstad - 25

Grayson - 24, Povich - 24, Rodgers - 26, McDermott - 26

All under control for several more years.  The pipeline does not matter as much when you have 3 established All Stars 26 and under, 2 top prospects 22 and under in the majors, 1 solid CF who is 24 and a ready made outfielder in the minor at 25.  At this point you need a free agent pitcher hopefully Burnes and use vets with remaining years of control or other free agents if they are not worth their arbitration estimates to fill out the roster.

Edited August 6 by The Goob

[Safelykept]

3 hours ago, Yossarian said:

We've also lost a lot of bargaining chips for trades for pitching.   We're either going to have to buy pitchers in free agency,  or hope we can find some gems in the Rule 5 scrap heap.  I don't see us trading these young positron players with years of control for pitching. 

Also we could potentially add by guys returning to health, Felix  Danny Wells Bradish and possibly Means.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Safelykept said:

Also we could potentially add by guys returning to health, Felix  Danny Wells Bradish and possibly Means.

They could potentially add all sorts of free agents.

[Safelykept]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could potentially add all sorts of free agents.

The options are many.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

The options are many.

I was specifically grouping Means with the other free agents.

[Safelykept]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was specifically grouping Means with the other free agents.

Fair, he could be grouped in both, but he is a FA, so he would have to be extended, thats why I said possibly, plus the bigger issue might be health

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen did a long Roki Sasaki piece today.    While that individual player is a pipe dream, it had a lot of analysis around international pool remainders in 2024, and potentially unallocated for January 2025.

In it he characterized the Orioles as a team "often" mentioned with lots of January 2025 money unallocated via word of mouth deals with the top talents.    Whimsically it might mean they could be a near high bidder if Sasaki comes in this ISP or the next one, but practically it might mean Koby hasn't had a lot of success lining up the top tier individuals.

Poor White Sox adjacent, the story also had a call back that org expended almost $50M to win Luis Robert when the rules were different.

[bluedog]

5 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Some decent names out there

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/2025-mlb-free-agent-rankings-top-10-pitchers

I'm with you guys,  though,  Burnes would be my #1 choice. 

I'm going with Burns at 6 / 204M and Fried at 5 / 150M.

The crazy thing is, the O's can afford that.

[OsFanInOhio]

Now we will see if we can continue to develop talent with later picks (like Gunnar, westburg, mayo) or international talent (basallo, hopefully de Leon). Teams like the padres and dodgers manage. Cleveland seems to constantly find pitching from its pipeline. I have faith in Elias.