Donta Williams release and why Elias needs to adjust his draft philosophy

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They typically do, which is another reason to draft more guys with pedigree of being a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I don't think Tamp trade Eflin without getting back a 2nd round pitching prospect. 

Who's the Baumeister now? Maybe Forret? Morfe? 

 

I value Morfe alot more than I would Baumeister. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Go_Os said:

I share your frustration, but I think Elias and Sig feel that drafting hitting is safer since they stay healthy more often that not, and they can trade for arms later.  I don't think they have done a particularly great job of that at this point, but I think that is their thought process.  

100% that's there thought process, but I'm showing very clearly that it's not going to work moving forward when they are drafting later in the drafts. They can't keep going to the college hitter well because they are not hitting enough to justify keeping that philosophy.

Some of Elias best draft picks have been high school hitters and in fact, every single one he's drafted and signed prior to this year's draft, besides Creed Willems, have made it to the majors (Henderson, Hernaiz, Holliday, and Mayo). 

That's why I was happy to see Layton and the later HS picks in this draft. Give me the upside of a Layton over a Douglas Hodo in the 6th round.

I just think he needs to spend more 2nd through 5th round picks on college arms with some upside. Sure, most are going to miss, just like most hitters are going to miss in those 2nd - 5th rounds, but if they need those upside arms because typically teams want some pitching back for starting pitching.

The Rogers trade was the only starting pitching trade that did not require pitching going back.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

I value Morfe alot more than I would Baumeister. 

Absolutely. Morfe just blew onto the scene with that high 90s heat, but he's also 18-years old and we don't know how he will hold up past 60 pitches so we do have to cool the jest a little on him until he crosses those threshholds. 

Saying that, I would still have him ranked over Baumeister, who honestly did not overly impress me during my looks of him.

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Everyone that says his strategy has worked needs to include "In the 1st round." 

Elias has proven to be an excellent drafter in the first round and typically drafting with a top 5 picks. 

I don't have an issue with him going for bats with his first round pick. I have an issue with him drafting low-ceiling college bats in the 2nd-5th round over college arms. 

I'm not saying he has to go all arms, but mix it up. Last year, by drafting Baumeister in the 2nd round, it helped get him Eflin. 

It took pitching as well as hitting to get both Eflin and Burnes. 

 

I agree with you for the most part but Beavers and Horvath weren’t 2nd round outfielders with low ceilings.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They typically do, which is another reason to draft more guys with pedigree of being a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I don't think Tamp trade Eflin without getting back a 2nd round pitching prospect. 

Who's the Baumeister now? Maybe Forret? Morfe? 

 

Reilly..who may be better than Baumeister anyway.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I agree with you for the most part but Beavers and Horvath weren’t 2nd round outfielders with low ceilings.

Yeah, I probably should have said 3rd-5th round. Most of the 2nd round picks have had some upside to them, they just have not worked out, though Horvath helping to get Eflin makes that pick worthwhile.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They either have to convert Mayo to RF or resign Santander if they want to move on from Kjerstad. I think they are going to hope Kjerstad can improve defensively like Santander did at the major league level.

I think Mayo to RF and re-signing Santander could definitely happen. They need Mayo to be able to do more than just first base because if Basallo.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Reilly..who may be better than Baumeister anyway.

That's a bit of stretch for me. I'm not saying that he might not end up better, but if I had to have one I'd still take Baumeister today. 

[bpilktree67]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Everyone that says his strategy has worked needs to include "In the 1st round." 

Elias has proven to be an excellent drafter in the first round and typically drafting with a top 5 picks. 

I don't have an issue with him going for bats with his first round pick. I have an issue with him drafting low-ceiling college bats in the 2nd-5th round over college arms. 

I'm not saying he has to go all arms, but mix it up. Last year, by drafting Baumeister in the 2nd round, it helped get him Eflin. 

It took pitching as well as hitting to get both Eflin and Burnes. 

 

Gunnar wasn’t a first rounder, Mayo was not a first rounder, Ortiz not a first rounder, Norby wasn’t a first rounder, Stowers wasn’t a first rounder,   That is one MVP type player, one that is top 15 prospect in all of baseball, one young player that is looking like a solid major league, 2 decent young prospect traded for a 4th or 5th starter you control for 2 more years. .   Those are not just guys that he drafted that made the majors but high caliber players.  As Frobby said not all guys making the majors are equal so just looking at how many guys from draft get to majors is worthless.  We have drafted so well that we could trade guys like Ortiz, Norby, and Stowers because they couldn’t crack our lineup.  
 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's a bit of stretch for me. I'm not saying that he might not end up better, but if I had to have one I'd still take Baumeister today. 

Why?  Similar age, Reilly has excellent stuff, is performing well at the same level (and now in AA)…good command. That was an under the radar move that I think could be huge for us.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Gunnar wasn’t a first rounder, Mayo was not a first rounder, Ortiz not a first rounder, Norby wasn’t a first rounder, Stowers wasn’t a first rounder,   That is one MVP type player, one that is top 15 prospect in all of baseball, one young player that is looking like a solid major league, 2 decent young prospect traded for a 4th or 5th starter you control for 2 more years. .   Those are not just guys that he drafted that made the majors but high caliber players.  As Frobby said not all guys making the majors are equal so just looking at how many guys from draft get to majors is worthless.  We have drafted so well that we could trade guys like Ortiz, Norby, and Stowers because they couldn’t crack our lineup.  
 

The first few picks of the drafts have been good, for the most part.

Ortiz and Mayo have been excellent pick ups outside of those rounds.

Go back and look at the 2021-2023 drafts. Cowser and Holliday were good picks but were at the top of the draft, where we won’t be drafting anymore.

Norby was a good second pick. Bradfield is up in the air.

Who else? Some helped us get Eflin, which is great. 
 

We held back money in 2021 and ended up with Creed Willems. Is that worth it?  How good do you think he is?

Again, for me, it’s the strategy.

[Ripken]

It's clearly a philosophy that demands heavily trading for, and paying for, pitching.  With the horrid ownership group that finally left us, paying for pitching up to this season was never going to happen.  That left trades and reclamation projects as the only options.  While that has worked to an extent, the team did not have sufficient pitching last post season.  They likely would've been in great shape this year if not for several injuries, though there were huge warning signs in some cases.  

I don't believe this bullpen can win a championship and I'm concerned about the staff next year.  How much Dave will spend, which includes Elias even wanting to take high dollar risks, will say much about sustaining the success of the last two seasons.  Beyond which, ignoring pitchers high in the draft can not continue.  Pitching is extremely volatile and winning the war of attrition and failure requires strong depth, which the Orioles do not have.

It took two useful (not great) pieces to get a very meh Rogers this deadline.  It took three kids to get Eflin.  One year of Burnes cost us two players we all liked.  I'm good with all of those transactions but how sustainable are the multi-player-for-1 trades?  The farm system already looks pretty mediocre once Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are out of it.  I very much hope we see a different drafting approach going forward and I hope ownership loves handing out money.

[LookitsPuck]

There are plenty of ways to construct a roster.

For me, if the lineup is nearly all homegrown with some FAs sprinkled in and the bullpen is from trades, FAs, waiver wires and they’re effective, I’m fine with it.

It doesn’t bother me one iota if the rotation has, say, 2 arms via FA, the others from past regimes and/or from trades. If they’re good, they’re good.

I’m reserving judgement until the international crop has 1-2 more years. It took the Astros so long to get their engine churning. Then they hit on like 3 pitchers from the same international class. Pretty amazing.

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, Ripken said:

It's clearly a philosophy that demands heavily trading for, and paying for, pitching.  With the horrid ownership group that finally left us, paying for pitching up to this season was never going to happen.  That left trades and reclamation projects as the only options.  While that has worked to an extent, the team did not have sufficient pitching last post season.  They likely would've been in great shape this year if not for several injuries, though there were huge warning signs in some cases.  

I don't believe this bullpen can win a championship and I'm concerned about the staff next year.  How much Dave will spend, which includes Elias even wanting to take high dollar risks, will say much about sustaining the success of the last two seasons.  Beyond which, ignoring pitchers high in the draft can not continue.  Pitching is extremely volatile and winning the war of attrition and failure requires strong depth, which the Orioles do not have.

It took two useful (not great) pieces to get a very meh Rogers this deadline.  It took three kids to get Eflin.  One year of Burnes cost us two players we all liked.  I'm good with all of those transactions but how sustainable are the multi-player-for-1 trades?  The farm system already looks pretty mediocre once Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are out of it.  I very much hope we see a different drafting approach going forward and I hope ownership loves handing out money.

Ownership needs to spend. If that happens, Elias can keep the existing draft strategy going assuming the international class churns out some arms. Those are all levers that can be pulled.

Edited August 13 by LookitsPuck

[Aristotelian]

50 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Elias has a great track record of drafting in the 1st round. He does not have much success drafting college hitters AFTER the 1st round. I really don't understand why this is hard to understand.

The entire point is not to say Elias is bad at drafting or his drafting in the first round (mostly while picking in the top 5 of the draft) has not put the organization where it is right now. 

 

 

I was no longer responding to you specifically, just offering a general take.

I see your point now. I agree for the most part. It is fair to say the college bats have been uneven. Norby, Ortiz, Stowers, Etzel, and Cook are some exceptions. Beavers and Fabian could still be something. 

One question, what about 2023? That draft looks a lot more like what you are suggesting. After the top two, 7 of the next 9 (11 of 14) were pitchers. There are some viable names in that group but they are still TBD. If none of them pan out, would that be an indictment of the evaluation more than the strategy?