After Two Weeks of Pie...

[Stotle]

Possibly. But two points: 1) I jumped into this discussion when it was claimed that Montanez would never be more than a 4th outfielder, which is considerably worse than an "average" LF; and 2) If being the best at AA projects to "average" LF, then what projects to above average? (What is better than "best"?) I think you see my point; all we can do is take the best hitters from each level and see which ones make it at the major league level. On average - and "on average" is the key point - the best hitters at the minor league level will do best. Othewise, we might as well just pick prospects randomly.

-Larrytt

This is incorrect because you aren't taking into account age and experience. If we take a very average AAA player and drop him in HiA, it wouldn't be surprising to see him put up top notch numbers. Montanez at AA last year was sort of like this (not exactly, but sort of).

[The Rick]

Because some people feel we have better options that not only make us better now but also in the future. That wasn't the case with Jones last year. To be fair to all the critics and people who are jumping on Pie if every other team in MLB had two guys tearing it up in AAA who played the same position as a guy in Pie's position they would calling for his head too. It's just human nature, even this early in the season.

This is what I was getting at by saying that with Jones, he was our depth. With Pie, there's talent knocking on the door right behind him and he's not producing yet.

I agree in that it's natural to have some critics in a scenario like this, that being said we are a losing team and should give him every chance to pan out. At least until July'ish IMO.

[larrytt]

You should. You really should. I think that list would be mighty small. Why don't you try it?

You're kidding me, right? But it took you ten seconds to type the above; I'm not going to spend an hour to show the obvious. There are many players who struggle and don't hit their prime until their late 20's. And after I put together such a list, it'll take ten seconds for someone to write, "Oh, they are outliers."

Montanez didn't hit well until he was 26, when he won the triple crown at AA. Here are just a few cases, from the O's alone:

-Mora: didn't break out until age 31.

-Luke Scott: didn't make the majors until age 27, didn't hit well until he was 29.

-Wigginton: couldn't hit until he was 28, when he had his breakout season.

-Huff: didn't break out until age 25, a few months before turning 26.

Now let's look at the Red Sox, who we just played:

-Kevin Youkilis, who just got through killing us, didn't start hitting until he was 28.

-Jason Varitek had one major league AB before age 26, and broke out at age 27.

-Mike Lowell had all of 15 major league at bats before age 25, and didn't start hitting until he was 26.

The point is that if you take a random 26- or 27-year-old who hasn't shown he can hit, then he's unlikely to hit. But if you take one who has shown he's the best hitter at AA level, then he's broken out of the pack, and is no longer an "outlier" if he makes it at the major league level. And he's an odds-on favorite to be better than a "4th outfielder."

-Larrytt

[Frobby]

If by that you mean your preferred 3-month window is getting incrementally smaller, then I see your point.

If you mean something else, I'm not sure what you're saying.

That is more or less it. Put it this way - if Pie was hitting .220/.300/.300 and playing good defense, and Montanez and Reimold were doing nothing much at AAA, that would be a different situation than we currently have. The worse Pie plays (both offensively and defensively), and the better his potential replacments do, the better the argument becomes for ending the experiment sooner than originally planned. Everything is a matter of degree. I don't agree with those who want to end the experiment now (most of whom never wanted to start the experiment in the first place). But Pie is not helping his case.

[Stotle]

10 bucks to anyone who can diagram that sentence structure correctly. I'm serious.

I won't diagram, but here's a clean-up. Can I get fifty cents and a diet dr. pepper?

BEFORE: It isn't silly it is exactly the same thing a pretty smart baseball manager named Lou Pinella did and that was to discard the bad Pie, who happens to be giving a lot of us heartburn in watching him try to impersonate a major leaguer with talent.

AFTER: It isn't silly, it is exactly the same thing a pretty smart baseball manager named Lou Pinella did -- discard the bad Pie (who happens to be giving a lot of us heartburn, watching him try to impersonate a major leaguer with talent).

[Stotle]

That is more or less it. Put it this way - if Pie was hitting .220/.300/.300 and playing good defense, and Montanez and Reimold were doing nothing much at AAA, that would be a different situation than we currently have. The worse Pie plays (both offensively and defensively), and the better his potential replacments do, the better the argument becomes for ending the experiment sooner than originally planned. Everything is a matter of degree. I don't agree with those who want to end the experiment now (most of whom never wanted to start the experiment in the first place). But Pie is not helping his case.

Montanez isn't really smoking the ball, is he? But I get your point.

[larrytt]

Do the research. If you want to prove how wrong we are and there are lots of example as you seem to think, it shouldn't be hard. If you prove me wrong with hard facts, I'll be glad to admit it. The fact is that Mark Carver is the only one who has showed an actual example and his disproves your theory that winning the triple crown at AA means a lot.

I'm just happy that he didn't miss the triple crown by 1 percentage point or a single RBI or something, because then I'm not sure what metric we'd use to project him...

In another posting, I gave a number of examples, just from the O's and Red Sox, of late bloomers. The example given by Mark Carver is meaningless since the guy he used as an example stopped playing and then died!!! As to the triple crown, if he'd lost the batting crown by a point but still put up a very high average, it would have meant the same. I refer to him winning the triple crown as a convenient way of pointing out he was the best hitter in the league last year. If being the best isn't good enough, he should retire.

-Larrytt

[Sports Guy]

Have you ever heard the term "a wash?" They do happen in professional sports...

It was a gamble that didn't work, so you let Reimold have his chance. If Reimold tears it up or performs better than Pie which he likely will, what exactly have you lost?

The faith that people have put into Pie because of his 2007 season in AAA is amazing.

2 weeks is enough? LOL...And yes Frobby, this argument is ABSURD!

[larrytt]

No, he had to go back to 1976 because that was the LAST triple crown winner in the AA Eastern League. At least that was how I read his post. He didn't cherry pick at all.

I do admit that the death thing is a pretty big deal for him succeeding though. LOL

If he's the only person in 33 years to win the triple crown at the AA Eastern League, despite all the many prospects who went there, doesn't that say something? Add in that he already proved to a degree that he could hit at the major league level in his 112 AB last year, where he hit .295 and slugged .446. Compare his stats to most prospects in their first 112 AB, and he comes out pretty good. This doesn't mean he'll be a star, but he might be, and he has a pretty good chance of a solid career, given the chance. (Remember, I jumped into this discussion when someone claimed he couldn't be more than a 4th outfielder.)

-Larrytt

[larrytt]

Who did that? I don't recall anyone saying that Montanez is conclusively never going to be more than a 4th outfielder. I recall several projecting that as his most likely path.

Mackus did. He wrote:

"Montanez is filler. He's nothing better than a 4th OF."

"He's nothing better than a 4th OF."

"Montanez isn't a prospect, so I don't really care about him."

-Larrytt

[ccbird]

That is more or less it. Put it this way - if Pie was hitting .220/.300/.300 and playing good defense, and Montanez and Reimold were doing nothing much at AAA, that would be a different situation than we currently have. The worse Pie plays (both offensively and defensively), and the better his potential replacments do, the better the argument becomes for ending the experiment sooner than originally planned. Everything is a matter of degree. I don't agree with those who want to end the experiment now (most of whom never wanted to start the experiment in the first place). But Pie is not helping his case.

Good post.. Now I'm patient and I'm willing to give Pie a fair shake but at some point if Reimold and to a lesser extent Montanez continue to play the way they have they will earn the right to have Pie's spot sooner then I was willing to wait. To be honest, I don't know when it would get to that point for me, I can't say it will be May15 or June 1st. It's just going to be an evolving situation depending on what all three guy are doing. BTW, competition is a darn good thing. I can't tell you how happy I am to see Nolan and Lou get off to the start they are off to in AAA. They presumably weren't happy with Pie getting a spot over them and were determined to go down, play well, and put pressure on Trembley and McPhail.

[larrytt]

This is incorrect because you aren't taking into account age and experience. If we take a very average AAA player and drop him in HiA, it wouldn't be surprising to see him put up top notch numbers. Montanez at AA last year was sort of like this (not exactly, but sort of).

Partially true, though very few AAA players would put up triple crown numbers at AA. But regardless of your age, if you are in AA, and are the best hitter in AA, and in fact are the only person to win the league's triple crown in 27 years, and are arguably the best hitter there in 33 years, then just what does he have to do to prove himself? You can't do better than be the best in the league. And as I've shown, many players don't reach their peak until around age 27 or later. There's no guarantee Montanez will be successful, but he's drastically increased the odds by his hitting at AA, AAA so far this year, and at the major league level last year.

-Larrytt

[Bond007]

Felix Pie > Mark Teixeira

I'm not positive but are a lot of the same people here bashing Pie the same people that supported Luis Hernandez last year when he was stinking the joint up......

[larrytt]

Agree, Mora is a good example

Disagree, this is an awful comp

Scott didn't come up until he was 27, but he hit at every level throughout his minor league career. He was late arriving mostly because he was late starting. He didn't begin to play in the minors until he was 24 and he made the majors at 27 so it took him 3 years. During that time he put up a low OPS of just below 800 and an OPS of 845 or higher at 4 separate stops. Despite putting up a 1055 OPS in AA, he was returned to AAA where he put up a 966 OPS for almost a full season before getting a Sept cup of coffee. He then went back to AAA again the next year despite those two previous seasons.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Luke-Scott.shtml

Montanez, on the other hand, is in his 10th MiL season this year. He has put up an OPS below 750 at eight different stops during his MiL career. Even during his triple crown year last year at 26, he didn't match the numbers that Scott put up in AA at 25. His minor league OPS AFTER last year's great results is 781 which is lower than Luke Scott EVER put up at any one stop except for a 768 in 100 at bats in high A ball. Scott's MiL OPS is 900. There is virtually no comp at all here.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Luis-Montanez.shtml

I don't even know what to say about this "comp". Wigginton reached the majors at 24. His MiL OPS is 25 points higher than Montanez despite playing at AAA at 23 and AA at 22 or YEARS before Montanez.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Ty-Wigginton.shtml

You mean the same Aubrey Huff who didn't play MiL ball until he was 21 and was in the majors by 23? Again, this guy had dominated AAA at 23 years old. He put up the same OPS in the majors that Montanez managed last year in his call up at 23. What exactly is comparable here? Huff had been an All Star in the majors by the time Montanez was finally having a great season in AA.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Aubrey-Huff.shtml

Now let's look at the Red Sox, who we just played:

Signed at 22. In the majors at 25. 885 MiL OPS. Again, not comparable AT ALL.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/Y/Kevin-Youkilis.shtml

First MiL at bat at 23. In the majors at 25. A catcher so a lower OPS is acceptable.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Jason-Varitek.shtml

Signed at 21. In the majors at 24. 829 MiL OPS. Back-to-back phenomenal years in AAA at 23 and 24.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Mike-Lowell.shtml

So, you've provided 7 examples and the comps for 6 of them range from poor to awful if you did a regression. I'm not sure what you think these guys are proving, but they just aren't. You cited a bunch of guys that were performing well in the majors by age 25 to compare to a guy who is still trying to get more than a cup of coffee at 27. I don't see the comparison at all.

I get that you think that, but it just isn't so. He isn't an "odds-on-favorite" at all. He is a possibility to be more than that, but that is all. The possibility isn't remote, but you'd get 4 or 5 to 1 on it in Vegas IMO.

You are giving examples of minor league OPS's in the .800's to Montanez's .986 last year, which simply aren't comparable. More importantly, you are equating making the majors with being successful; I was giving the age when they started to hit (and I'm not talking .800-.900 OPS in the minors). Making the majors and putting up weak numbers is exactly what Montanez would have done earlier. The examples I showed were players who learned to hit at comparable ages to when Montanez learned to hit. Few of the others put up the numbers Montanez put up last year or (so far) this year. Plus, Montanez's numbers at the major league level last year (112 AB) were better than most of the players I listed above until their breakout years.

Can't spend all night on this; I think you are missing what I keep saying, which is that I jumped in here when it was claimed that Montanez would be no better than a 4th outfielder. I never said he'd be a star like some of the late-blooming examples I gave, though his being arguably the best hitter at AA Eastern League in 33 years bodes well.

-Larrytt

[Stotle]

Winner!!! Want me to send you the 50 cents and Diet Dr. Pepper or owe it to you? Come see me at the Gwinnett Braves and I'll buy. Or I'll eventually make it back for a hangout night.

I'll likely be down south for some HS showcases this summer - maybe I'll make a stop-over in your neck of the woods. THanks.