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The latest projection, four hours before the Nationals go on the clock:

1. Nationals: San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg.

2. Mariners: North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley.

3. Padres: Georgia HS outfielder Donavan Tate.

4. Pirates: Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez.

That’s all that’s fairly certain at this point. Strasburg is a lock at No. 1, Ackley and Tate should happen unless the money gets crazy, and the Pirates would take Sanchez over Georgia HS righthander Zack Wheeler in this scenario. The next five teams (Orioles, Giants, Braves, Reds, Tigers) are looking at pitchers but still sorting through options, so I’m not going to tear up this morning’s complete first-round projection just yet.

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Wow. To have Matzek, Crow, Wheeler, Turner, and Miller all available to us would be great. Watch us screw it up.

I'd take Matzek and Crow off that list due to bonus demands, and I haven't seen us being linked to Turner or Miller yet. At this point, I'm really hoping that Wheeler is there when we pick. If Pittsburgh snatches him up, I fear that we'll overdraft for Hobgood. This stuff is making me nervous!

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I'd take Matzek and Crow off that list due to bonus demands, and I haven't seen us being linked to Turner or Miller yet. At this point, I'm really hoping that Wheeler is there when we pick. If Pittsburgh snatches him up, I fear that we'll overdraft for Hobgood. This stuff is making me nervous!

I can't seem to find the scouting report on Wheeler. Can someone provide?

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Something I liked about Wheeler on that description was that he's a "baseball rat". Sounds like a guy who loves the game and wants to get better.

I think I like this pick, although, I have to say that Lier's reading into his mechanics puts me off a bit. Looking at that video, his delivery does look less than "fluid".

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Something I liked about Wheeler on that description was that he's a "baseball rat". Sounds like a guy who loves the game and wants to get better.

I think I like this pick, although, I have to say that Lier's reading into his mechanics puts me off a bit. Looking at that video, his delivery does look less than "fluid".

I agree. I'll really like the pick, but his mechanics do need some work. His hands just seem too busy through his delivery. If he's our pick I'm sure Lier would be willing to analyze him.

Here's another scouting report that I liked. These guys seem to do a pretty good job;)

http://www.camdendepot.com/2009draft_scoutingreport_wheelerza.html

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Wow. To have Matzek, Crow, Wheeler, Turner, and Miller all available to us would be great. Watch us screw it up.

Did I miss something or does Jordan have a history of screwing up top five picks that I'm unaware of? No sure why such a negative vibe, but the Orioles I'm sure are talking with the guys they like and will draft the one they believe they can get into the system and pitching the soonest.

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No sure why such a negative vibe, but the Orioles I'm sure are talking with the guys they like and will draft the one they believe they can get into the system and pitching the soonest.
Well if drafting the one that can "get into the system and pitching the soonest" is anything but a tie-breaker when dealing between two roughly equal prospects, I'd say they are at least using a poor criteria.

Getting a guy who isn't super expensive is great if you have all the guys slotted at about the same value. But if it becomes something you are actually targeting when you are determining which guys you like, that's not a good thing.

I'm optimistic we'll end up with Wheelers. I'll be mildly disappointed if they select White.

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Did I miss something or does Jordan have a history of screwing up top five picks that I'm unaware of?
Not at all. It's a matter of the names we've been linked to (Leake, Hobgood, White, Minor).

In our last draft without AM, we took two big tough-signs in Wieters and Arrieta. Unquestionably those picks have (so far) worked out quite nicely.

Andy Macphail played a role in signing those players, but not drafting them, and the question still lingers in my head whether AM would have made either of those picks, let alone both, if he had the reigns in 2007.

Given the names we're hearing, it seems to me that AM's style is not the same as the one that landed us Wieters and Arrieta. It seems to me that he wants to avoid protracted, contentious negotiations. To me, that could be a costly decision.

Again, this is based on the names being thrown around, including the names we're said to be passing up.

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Not at all. It's a matter of the names we've been linked to (Leake, Hobgood, White, Minor).

In our last draft without AM, we took two big tough-signs in Wieters and Arrieta. Unquestionably those picks have (so far) worked out quite nicely.

Andy Macphail played a role in signing those players, but not drafting them, and the question still lingers in my head whether AM would have made either of those picks, let alone both, if he had the reigns in 2007.

Given the names we're hearing, it seems to me that AM's style is not the same as the one that landed us Wieters and Arrieta. It seems to me that he wants to avoid protracted, contentious negotiations. To me, that could be a costly decision.

Again, this is based on the names being thrown around, including the names we're said to be passing up.

+1.

If Mcphail had the choice between Matusz and Wieters in the same draft -- with their representation in mind... I'm having a hard time figuring out who he would take... and that bothers me.

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He did. Maybe that left a sour taste in his mouth.

That's what I was thinking. Albert Belle's injury really influenced Angelos in FA, in the same way Prior's injuries may influence the way MacPhail oversees a draft.

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Maybe I am just giving AM the benefit of the doubt but he seems to be a guy with a plan. He is very calculating which would go against the idea that he would just shut down any possible options (Boras' clients). He may utilize the risk vs. reward method but I would think that he does it on an individual basis.

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