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Etzel's playable in CF by all accounts. Just a meteoric rise, As we've seen with Beavers, sustaining a hot start in Bowie can sometimes be a challenge. -
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By drjohnnyfever1 · Posted
So last night, 7/3, Julio Rodriguez didn't make the catch on that 2-run double by O'Hearn. It was a long run, but that looked like it should have been caught. Then Hayes made a nice diving catch in LF and Santander made that sliding grab in RF. I was wondering about the catch probability of those plays and where you guys get those stats/ details. I'm thinking the Rodriquez play was less likely caught than the other two, but Santander might have been close. I'm trying to get a handle on this stat, because of what was discussed in the last thread (...that I couldn't locate) and the understanding that how spectacular a catch might look might not be a good indicator of probability. My untrained eyes say Rodriguez was most unlikely, followed by Santander, and then Hayes. I'm probably completely wrong. -
I thought of it but decided the FCL thread was more relevant. But your more than welcome to.
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By sportsfan8703 · Posted
Remember Komi Uehera? Great splitter. The problem was you have to throw the fastball to set it up. He had an average fastball. The Red Sox did ride him to a WS though. -
July 1: Chayce McDermott, 7 IP, 12 K’s July 4: Yeiber Cartaya, 4 IP, 10 K’s. It’s possible I’ve missed one or two so far. -
He is such an interesting case. Obviously the extraordinarily late “breakout” age, but you also just almost never see a true one-pitch pitcher in today’s game. Aside from the splitter, he has no ML-quality pitches. The 4-seam fastball is mediocre at best in velocity for a reliever (94.6 MPH), it’s on the straighter side, and it gets tagged to the tune of a .405 wOBA (with a .400 xWOBA to match). It’s a bottom-tier 4-seamer. And then he throws a cutter 27% of the time. A cutter which is so bad that I can only imagine Palmer would have a coronary watching him continue to throw it. It is arguably the worst pitch in baseball this season, and over the course of his two ML seasons, hitters are posting a .486 wOBA against it. What’s most shocking is that StatCast suggests he’s been lucky to get that outcome, with a staggering .511 xWOBA on two seasons worth of cutters. Ah, but then you have that splitter. The gift from God. And it really is, to be honest. This is a dude who would be working some every day job like the rest of us if he didn’t somehow master that splitter. But he did, and now he’s making bank playing a game. So far this season, 81 PAs ending on a splitter. Opponents have 4 hits against it (.056 BA). All those hits have been singles. 53 of those PAs ended with the hitter slinking back to the dugout (a cool 65.1% K rate), and it carries a 58.1% whiff rate. The average EV against the splitter this year is 76.7 MPH. The two-year wOBA on the splitter is .133, with a .137 xWOBA to match. Those are goofy numbers. Those are the numbers my 5-year-old nephew will put up against my best wiffleball arsenal this afternoon. In sum, really interesting guy. Only having one effective pitch concerns me — on the days when the splitter is not splitting, he’s useless. The splitter has gotten more effective this year, not less, so that does assuage some of my concerns about the league eventually getting the book on him and spitting on the splitter in order to wait for a chance to pulverize the other junk he tosses. But is he a guy you can run out 4-5 times against the same elite hitters in a short span in October? It just seems like they’d have to get a solid feel for him after seeing a few times back to back. But if all it would cost is someone like Billy Cook, there’s really no harm done in finding out.
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