Challenge To All Statistical Gurus!

[Eli Eon]

Since I am getting kicked around like a pro league soccer ball on the other (Bynum) thread, I will lay out a challenge to anyone who thinks they are so certain that minor league stats will predict sucess at the major league level.

I want to know who (based on stats) in the Orioles minor leagues will be the next sucessful major leaguer? You cannot use Wieters as he has zero stats so far!

If stats are so reliable pick this one "can't miss" position player and if you end up being right I will bear a signature for a year that I bow to all stats gurus. If you are wrong, you will bear a signature that predicting a future major leage player based on stats is a crapshoot (like I bear in mine).

When I say sucessful, I mean a guy who once he gets called up remains on the team and stays in the lineup for at least two full seasons as a starter in the major leagues, or however long it takes to be tenured.

The challenge is laid! ( I am extremely confident you can't do it!)

[Pedro Cerrano]

Who decides who is 'right' or 'wrong.'

A guy could hit .350, average 50 HR and 160 RBI a year and you'd simply deny that he's a good player.

You're good at ignoring stats and facts as proof and just sort of blindly arriving at your own conclusions.

Quite a talent.

[Eli Eon]

Who decides who is 'right' or 'wrong.'

A guy could hit .350, average 50 HR and 160 RBI a year and you'd simply deny that he's a good player.

You're good at ignoring stats and facts as proof and just sort of blindly arriving at your own conclusions.

Quite a talent.

How so? I laid out the perameters. All any stat genius has to do is name ONE Oriole minor league player (shouldn't be difficult with all these purported stats as a gauge) who will make the roster and remain on the team and be a sucessful major league starter for at least two years. I think Markakis would have fit the bill. So we are looking for another position player with stats good enough to make the team become a starterand become a tenured major leaguer.

I am telling you right now none of you can do it, because it is a crap shoot and all these minor league stats mean nothing when it comes to predicting major league success.

As the saying goes, put up or shut up! :

[The Wedge]

How so? I laid out the perameters. All any stat genius has to do is name ONE Oriole minor league player (shouldn't be difficult with all these purported stats as a gauge) who will make the roster and remain on the team and be a sucessful major league starter for at least two years. I think Markakis would have fit the bill. So we are looking for another position player with stats good enough to make the team become a starterand become a tenured major leaguer.

I am telling you right now none of you can do it, because it is a crap shoot and all these minor league stats mean nothing when it comes to predicting major league success.

As the saying goes, put up or shut up!

You are such a thick ass.

[Fan4Life]

How so? I laid out the perameters. All any stat genius has to do is name ONE Oriole minor league player (shouldn't be difficult with all these purported stats as a gauge) who will make the roster and remain on the team and be a sucessful major league starter for at least two years. I think Markakis would have fit the bill. So we are looking for another position player with stats good enough to make the team become a starterand become a tenured major leaguer.

I am telling you right now none of you can do it, because it is a crap shoot and all these minor league stats mean nothing when it comes to predicting major league success.

As the saying goes, put up or shut up!

Yeah but how much wood could a wood-chuck chuck? Do they keep stats for that?

[Eli Eon]

You are such a thick ass.

Wow, that was really an astute observation. How about manning up and backing up what you want to deride me over espousing? You cannot do it can you?

Just as I thought. A whole lot of meaningless crappola which can't prove squat!

The challenge is out there and where is everyone? The silence is deafening? So far all I am getting is personal attacks. When that happens you know the argument is won in your favor!

[LookitsPuck]

Maybe we should turn this bet around and ask you to predict someone in the minors right now that has awful MiL numbers, but will be on the Orioles for 1-2 years and does amazing?

[The Wedge]

This message is hidden because Eli Eon is on your ignore list.

Ah, pure bliss.

[Sports Guy]

First of all, you will not find one opinion of anyone on here who says minor league stats guarantee success or failure.

I think you will also not find one person who thinks there is such thing as a can't miss player.

And, as TTF was saying...Who is going to define if they have a good season? You? You think Manny Alexander and friggin Juan Bell were good MiLers, so you you are clearly a poor judge of talent.

[rolliefingers]

Don't. Take. The bait.

[Eli Eon]

First of all, you will not find one opinion of anyone on here who says minor league stats guarantee success or failure.

I think you will also not find one person who thinks there is such thing as a can't miss player.

And, as TTF was saying...Who is going to define if they have a good season? You? You think Manny Alexander and friggin Juan Bell were good MiLers, so you you are clearly a poor judge of talent.

Apparently so were the Orioles as they tried both of them, so what?

AGain, if stats are so accurate somebody on this forum who believes in them ought to be able to select just ONE FRIGGING PLAYER that the stats indicate will suceed!

[Dr. FLK]

Is it fun coming to a site where seemingly everyone wishes you didn't exist?

People think you're ignore stats and say people stink because you do that very same thing with Tejada every single day. And, if you don't think minor league stats translate to the majors, that's one thing. But, in the case of your lust-object LH, do you think pathetic minor league stats somehow translate into good major league stats?

I have a game for you.

Pick the next minor leaguer with an OPS in AA < 600 who ends up being a successfully major leaguer. That's all, nothing too hard. I just want to see what all you "stat ignorers" can do, since it's so easy to judge a guy by less than 40 ML ABs.

[rosekeister]

You're starting with the wrong premise which is an individual player. Any individual player can play better or worse than projections both for a single season and longer periods. Stats deal with groups of players and the percentages that a single player will be better or worse based on his minor league stats.

[Sports Guy]

Apparently so were the Orioles as they tried both of them, so what?

AGain, if stats are so accurate somebody on this forum who believes in them ought to be able to be able to select just ONE FRIGGING PLAYER that the stats indicate will suceed!

The point is, who is judging them to be good?

You are a poor judge of talent.

[os1971]

Since I am getting kicked around like a pro league soccer ball on the other (Bynum) thread, I will lay out a challenge to anyone who thinks they are so certain that minor league stats will predict sucess at the major league level.

I want to know who (based on stats) in the Orioles minor leagues will be the next sucessful major leaguer? You cannot use Wieters as he has zero stats so far!

If stats are so reliable pick this one "can't miss" position player and if you end up being right I will bear a signature for a year that I bow to all stats gurus. If you are wrong, you will bear a signature that predicting a future major leage player based on stats is a crapshoot (like I bear in mine).

When I say sucessful, I mean a guy who once he gets called up remains on the team and stays in the lineup for at least two full seasons as a starter in the major leagues, or however long it takes to be tenured.

The challenge is laid! ( I am extremely confident you can't do it!)

Sadly enough I don't think we even have a guy in AAA or AA who might fall into that category. I guess you could expect House or Knott to have some reasonable ML success if given a chance, but they are older, and probably won't be given a chance, so they would'nt be good picks. I guess the best ML ready position player/real prospect we have that might fall into your example might be Reimold, but I'm not sure hes a good enough prospect to even be considered a can't miss prospect. Rowell might be another, but he's probably 3 years out.

A better challenge for you might be to allow some of the more minor league savvy people to pick Minor leaguers from other teams and track their progrees over the next couple of years.