Challenge To All Statistical Gurus!

[Eli Eon]

How convenient that you forgot Mackus picked Reimold and Rowell. Just up and forgot did ya?

Nope, didn't see it. Perhaps you would be so kind to post a thread with the predictions on it? Maybe you could even list their names and choices.

[The Wedge]

Nope, didn't see it. Perhaps you would be so kind to post a thread with the predictions on it? Maybe you could even list their names and choices.

I refuse to take part in your straw man game. It's completely pointless, proves nothing no matter how much you crow that it does, and exists only to draw attention away from the fact that you haven't the first eff'n clue what the hell you're talking about.

[Gurgi]

Eli you seem to be overly excited today. The minors are a great judge of how a player may turn out. That is obvious. Weither Hernandez may fill out and mature to become a much better hitter is a good question. Weither he should fill Tejadas spot at SS is another interesting question.

Eli if you can't make your point in ten to twelve post per thread you should retire or it does seem like you are trolling.

[Eli Eon]

Because nobody knows with 100% certainly who will not get injured, who will continue to progress, and a slew of other random variables. Sounds an awful lot like a crapshoot to me!

But what we do know, is who is the most likely to succeed. I've already told you that IMO Nolan Reimold and Billy Rowell are the two minor league hitters in the system that I think are the best bets to be at least solid regular MLB players. Of course Reimold won't even get a shot until next season and Rowell is a couple of years behind that, so we won't know for a long time.

No problem.

Nick Markakis is the best answer to your question, though. Almost exactly two years ago we were on here talking about Nick as the next best thing, basing it on his minor league stats, his age, and his level of play. How'd that one turn out?

pretty good so far.

You and Fruitloop kid are the only two on the entire OH who have been man enought to take my challenge and predict. I give you credit sir. If you are right in a few years (if I am lucky enough to still be around I will bow to your insight in my signature, although I have to wonder if you are basing your selections moreso on draft status than minor league stats!)

[Eli Eon]

I refuse to take part in your straw man game. It's completely pointless, proves nothing no matter how much you crow that it does, and exists only to draw attention away from the fact that you haven't the first eff'n clue what the hell you're talking about.

Never mind. You seem like a very dour individual who has nothing good to say anyway. You probably constantly complain about everything don't you? I will thank you for pointing out Mackus as accepting the challenge. At least you can look at him as someone who backs up their position instead of just hurling baseless insults like yourself. Since I missed his post I appreciate you pointing out so I will make another thread myself, since you so ungraciously decline.

[The Wedge]

Never mind. You seem like a very dour individual who has nothing good to say anyway. You probably constantly complain about everything don't you? I will thank you for pointing out Mackus as accepting the challenge. At least you can look at him as someone who backs up their positon instead of just hurling baseless insults like yourself. Since I missed his post I appreciate you pointing out so I will make another thread myself, since you so ungraciously decline.

Wow, an incredibly bad judge of talent AND character. Way to go, buffalo.

[CrimsonTribe]

Has anyone ever gotten two red dots before?

[The Wedge]

Has anyone ever gotten two red dots before?

I think I recall seeing it, but it very well may have been at another forum.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Man I can't wait for Tony or ScottieB to see this thread.

[El Gordo]

You're starting with the wrong premise which is an individual player. Any individual player can play better or worse than projections both for a single season and longer periods. Stats deal with groups of players and the percentages that a single player will be better or worse based on his minor league stats.

Indeed. Someone posted here, once, a list of the top ten prospects for the last ten years and how many of them had a cup of coffe and how many became impact players. I can't remember the specific numbers but it was somethinhg like 3 in ten made it to the ML and 1 in 10 became an impact player. Those prospects and their rankings were based primarily on their MiL stats, so while my % 's may be off it should be easy to demonstrate the odds. Certainly better than a crap shoot, but not very high.

[Mashed Potatoes]

I think I recall seeing it, but it very well may have been at another forum.

I pray to the god of evolution that the mods let Eli reach two red dots. I want to see what it says.

[Lt Melmo]

Okay, so are you saying no Oriole minor leaguer will have a succesful major league career? (Apparently so) That is so ludicrous I must beg to differ and I base this on observation not minor league stats! I think Olson and Hoey will both have sucess at the major league level. Try getting off the fence for once and making a decision. I love all these people who suffer from paralysis from analysis. That type of mindset would get you killed on a battlefield! Man up and make a decision for once!

Seriously man, what is your problem?

What is this obsession you have with stretching everyone's words?

I said that we have no one IN THE UPPER MINORS who we can EXPECT to have a long minor league career. Do I need to explain to you how the minor leagues work? How there are multiple leagues of different levels, and it's foolish to assume any player in single-A will reach the majors because of the chance of injury?

I never said we don't have anyone in the minors who CAN'T be a major league contributor. This is your problem! You see everything as black and white, where all we're saying is based on stats, this is what you could expect. There are always players that step up and start improving later in their careers, but these are NOT players who have .600 OPSes at AA.

I didn't say Olson or Hoey because they're already on the big club and probably aren't going back down. I expect, based on statistical inquiry, that Olson will be a starter and Hoey will be a bullpen fixture. Now listen carefully: I'm not saying that they WILL ABSOLUTELY be starters, because sometimes talent doesn't translate, but MOST OF THE GODDAMN TIME IT DOES.

You don't understand a word of this.

[ScottieBaseball]

Man I can't wait for Tony or ScottieB to see this thread.

Aside from watching the unintentional hilarity ensue, there's really no action to be taken other than to watch him continue to belittle and demean the entire scouting and development industry. "Crap shoot"? That's rich! By definition, that means all you need is luck. Maybe Eli will don some cleats and hustle on out the next time the O's or any other MLB team hold a cattle call. Because, you know, it's a crap shoot. Any schmoe can roll the dice and make the squad. See you in Bluefield in '08, Eli?

[Lt Melmo]

Aside from watching the unintentional hilarity ensue, there's really no action to be taken other than to watch him continue to belittle and demean the entire scouting and development industry. "Crap shoot"? That's rich! By definition, that means all you need is luck. Maybe Eli will don some cleats and hustle on out the next time the O's or any other MLB team hold a cattle call. Because, you know, it's a crap shoot. Any schmoe can roll the dice and make the squad. See you in Bluefield in '08, Eli?

There has to be reason to ban him, if only for being so disrespectful to the entire forum, having the nerve to suggest Vatech doesn't watch the games, etc. Or if only because he's caused an entire board to waste this much time on him.

[DrungoHazewood]

There has to be reason to ban him, if only for being so disrespectful to the entire forum, having the nerve to suggest Vatech doesn't watch the games, etc. Or if only because he's caused an entire board to waste this much time on him.

He's the Lyndon LaRouche of the Hangout. You may not like his nonsensical ranting, and his version of LaRouche's comments about Margaret Thatcher and Eisenhower being pinko commies might strike you as a little off the wall, but he's not really doing anything illegal. Best to just laugh and move on.