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How can you guys not be talking more about Sano?

Mashed Potatoes

By Mashed Potatoes
in MLB

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SrMeowMeow Hangout Grand Counsel

SrMeowMeow

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There are no guarantees. Yes, he could be worth $0 in the future. So could every player. So you have to play the odds. What are the chances of this player being worth $0, or $100,000 or $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 or $20,000,000 (and so on)? Then you weight those odds against the cost. How do you balance a 50% to be worth nothing versus a 2% chance of being worth 100,000,000+, a 20% to be worth $50,000,000+, a 30% chance to be worth $10,000,000+, a 35% to be worth $6,000,000+, and a 15% chance to be worth between $0 and $6,000,000? I pulled these numbers put of my ass, but this goes for any signing. Yes, there is a 65% chance that we will not recoup our costs, but if the guy has a realistic chance of being well above-average if not a star, isn't that a chance worth taking? Potential stars are very rare, so they are the ones we need to risk signing.

BTW, virtually no pitchers would ever be drafted if teams needed better than a 50% chance.

In summary, upside counts.

Yeah, I understand. I was just arguing a small part of something else.

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carolinaoriole Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

carolinaoriole

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If the Orioles will actually use that $4.5 million to improve the club elsewhere, such as Sano, I can live with not spending that money.

It's if they don't spend that money anywhere else and had the opportunity to take the best prep pitcher talent wise, that I have a problem with as anybody else would and should. And I guess I'm just assuming that is what is going to happen based on MacPhail's MO with the Orioles thus far.

I don't think people understand that I want MacPhail to prove me wrong as signing Sano would be a departure from the norm with him and I really hope he does.

I hope we get this player

But I do not equate spending money with winning or losing.

I think it is how you spend the money that equates to winning or losing.

I think the ridiculous way the yankees spend proves that.

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PitchingWins Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

PitchingWins

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I'd rather take a chance on him for 6 mil than signing some aging vet stop gapper for the same price, that we've been doing the last 10+ years.

I think its two separate things, if we are able to sign Sano, I hardly think he is fitting into this teams future anytime soon. I think the best possible situation is when he is 19(because he has never really faced good team play).It's easy to be a man amongst boys, however when you are no longer a big fish in a small pond, I think time and adjustments are needed. I'm not saying the kid is not good/not going to be great. I'm just saying I think he needs to face decent live pitching in game scenarios before he is anointed the best prospect. Talent doesn't always equal greatness.... Look at Felix Pie (and I like Felix).

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orayole Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

orayole

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I think its two separate things, if we are able to sign Sano, I hardly think he is fitting into this teams future anytime soon. I think the best possible situation is when he is 19(because he has never really faced good team play).It's easy to be a man amongst boys, however when you are no longer a big fish in a small pond, I think time and adjustments are needed. I'm not saying the kid is not good/not going to be great. I'm just saying I think he needs to face decent live pitching in game scenarios before he is anointed the best prospect. Talent doesn't always equal greatness.... Look at Felix Pie (and I like Felix).

I didn't mean it exactly like that. I meant more like someone else said that, if we can sign a guy like Javy Lopez for 9 mil, then taking a chance on a potential once in a generation player, that he supposedly is, for less is definitely worth it.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I'm sorry but I still think there's no way on God's green earth we sign this kid.

I hope I'm wrong though...

I think I can honestly say that I would be more shocked by this than anything that has happened(in a good way) since i have been an Oriole fan....in terms of signings, trades, etc...

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olehippi Veteran All-Star

olehippi

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I heard that the O's real target is Miguel Sano's 12 yr old brother, Julio Sano, who is said to already have a physique similar to Alex Rodriguez. Word is that MacPhail is trying to lure Julio into signing with the O's 4 years from now by signing his good, but much less talented, older brother to a huge $6M contract.

And in other news..........

Jim Palmer, who claims he has perfected throwing a knuckleball, has decided to make another comeback try.

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Dadaist Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Dadaist

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How is that news?

Some nobody tweets that we are a darkhorse?

First of all, that has been the case anyway...Secondly, how is this guy saying this any different than you saying it?

You don't know who Kiley McDaniel is? Guy is seriously huge in scouting circles.

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