The Bullpen Has Blown 7 Games for Trachsel

[Frobby]

Here are the sweepstakes winners!

Trachsel 7

Bedard 4

Guthrie 4

Loewen, Cabrera, Burres, Shuey, Bell & Bradford 1 each

I guess Trachsel has been paid back in spades for his lucky 15-win total a year ago.

[os1971]

Here are the sweepstakes winners!

Trachsel 7

Bedard 4

Guthrie 4

Loewen, Cabrera, Burres, Shuey, Bell & Bradford 1 each

I guess Trachsel has been paid back in spades for his lucky 15-win total a year ago.

The way he's pitched, its hard to believe we can't move him.

[OregonBird]

I suppose most teams don't want to part w/young, CHEAP talent the way player salaries are skyrocketing every year.

[DrungoHazewood]

I suppose most teams don't want to part w/young, CHEAP talent the way player salaries are skyrocketing every year.

And the Orioles apparently won't take a random AA arm for him. Oh well, maybe he'll net us a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere.

[Frobby]

And the Orioles apparently won't take a random AA arm for him. Oh well, maybe he'll net us a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere.

I think the Orioles are justified if they decide to exercise the $4.75 mm option they have on Trachsel. He has been good a lot more often than he has been bad this year. We don't know what to expect from most of our young guys, and we need a viable alternative of one or more of them isn't ready to step up, or gets hurt. Trachsel gets no respect, and you can make all the K/BB, xFIP, DIPS and age arguments you want, but he has done a good job this year and has been a consistent performer for a very long time.

[tim27]

I think the Orioles are justified if they decide to exercise the $4.75 mm option they have on Trachsel. He has been good a lot more often than he has been bad this year. We don't know what to expect from most of our young guys, and we need a viable alternative of one or more of them isn't ready to step up, or gets hurt. Trachsel gets no respect, and you can make all the K/BB, xFIP, DIPS and age arguments you want, but he has done a good job this year and has been a consistent performer for a very long time.

I'm starting to agree with this as well. The only problem is he should be behind glass next year which reads "Break in case of emergency." He shouldn't get a single start next year over a guy like Olson, Liz, or Penn. I have no problem keeping him around he's performed admirably this year, but I just worry that if the O's did they'd run him out there every fifth day for his veteranosity.

P.S. He's worth more than some random AA arm.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think the Orioles are justified if they decide to exercise the $4.75 mm option they have on Trachsel. He has been good a lot more often than he has been bad this year. We don't know what to expect from most of our young guys, and we need a viable alternative of one or more of them isn't ready to step up, or gets hurt. Trachsel gets no respect, and you can make all the K/BB, xFIP, DIPS and age arguments you want, but he has done a good job this year and has been a consistent performer for a very long time.

As ugly as Trachsel's peripherals have been this year, the records of players like him in year X+1 are downright hideous.

Here's everyone in the expansion era over 35, with 140+ IP, < 3.5 K/9, and > 3.5 BB/9:

1961-2006AGE >= 35INNINGS PITCHED >= 140STRIKEOUTS/9 IP <= 3.5WALKS/9 IP >= 3.5RSAA                          YEAR    RSAA      IP     SO/9 IP   BB/9 IP   1    Phil Niekro              1986       -4    210.1     3.47     4.06   2    Claude Osteen            1975      -10    204       2.78     4.06   3    Bob Knepper              1989      -30    165       3.49     4.09   

Their ERAs the next year were 6.30, out of majors, and 5.68 (in 44 innings). They were all retired before year X+2.

If you lower the innings threshold to 100 you get Mike Cuellar's last year in Baltimore. The next season he pitched three innings, allowed seven runs, and retired. You also get Bob Forsch in '89, and he retired immediately after the year. And you get Wilbur Wood in 1977. In '78 he actually pitched 168 innings, but to a 5.20 ERA in a league with a 3.68.

What Trachsel is doing right now is at the very edge of what's possible. Continuing that next year would be historically unique. If they pick up his option I'll be bitterly disappointed.

[Frobby]

As ugly as Trachsel's peripherals have been this year, the records of players like him in year X+1 are downright hideous.

Here's everyone in the expansion era over 35, with 140+ IP, < 3.5 K/9, and > 3.5 BB/9:

1961-2006AGE >= 35INNINGS PITCHED >= 140STRIKEOUTS/9 IP <= 3.5WALKS/9 IP >= 3.5RSAA                          YEAR    RSAA      IP     SO/9 IP   BB/9 IP   1    Phil Niekro              1986       -4    210.1     3.47     4.06   2    Claude Osteen            1975      -10    204       2.78     4.06   3    Bob Knepper              1989      -30    165       3.49     4.09   

Their ERAs the next year were 6.30, out of majors, and 5.68 (in 44 innings). They were all retired before year X+2.

If you lower the innings threshold to 100 you get Mike Cuellar's last year in Baltimore. The next season he pitched three innings, allowed seven runs, and retired. You also get Bob Forsch in '89, and he retired immediately after the year. And you get Wilbur Wood in 1977. In '78 he actually pitched 168 innings, but to a 5.20 ERA in a league with a 3.68.

What Trachsel is doing right now is at the very edge of what's possible. Continuing that next year would be historically unique. If they pick up his option I'll be bitterly disappointed.

Isn't this just a variation of what you said (1) before this season started based on last year's numbers, and (2) back in May when Trachsel had a good start? Yet here he is, with the ERA of a no. 3 starter.

I wouldn't go in to 2008 with a plan that gives me 5 viable starting pitcher opitions, one of whom is Trachsel. But if he's one of about 7-8 options, that's fine. Make Penn and Olson prove they are worthy. Make Loewen prove he's healthy and not too rusty. Make Cabrera prove he can take a step forward instead of running in place.

[tim27]

As ugly as Trachsel's peripherals have been this year, the records of players like him in year X+1 are downright hideous.

Here's everyone in the expansion era over 35, with 140+ IP, < 3.5 K/9, and > 3.5 BB/9:

1961-2006AGE >= 35INNINGS PITCHED >= 140STRIKEOUTS/9 IP <= 3.5WALKS/9 IP >= 3.5RSAA                          YEAR    RSAA      IP     SO/9 IP   BB/9 IP   1    Phil Niekro              1986       -4    210.1     3.47     4.06   2    Claude Osteen            1975      -10    204       2.78     4.06   3    Bob Knepper              1989      -30    165       3.49     4.09   

Their ERAs the next year were 6.30, out of majors, and 5.68 (in 44 innings). They were all retired before year X+2.

If you lower the innings threshold to 100 you get Mike Cuellar's last year in Baltimore. The next season he pitched three innings, allowed seven runs, and retired. You also get Bob Forsch in '89, and he retired immediately after the year. And you get Wilbur Wood in 1977. In '78 he actually pitched 168 innings, but to a 5.20 ERA in a league with a 3.68.

What Trachsel is doing right now is at the very edge of what's possible. Continuing that next year would be historically unique. If they pick up his option I'll be bitterly disappointed.

Didn't we hear the same things about Traschel last year? Now, maybe he does fall off the cliff, but I was hearing the same things about Traschel last April and it hasn't happened yet. What makes his failure inevitable next year, when supposedly it was inevitable this year and it didn't happen?

[tim27]

Isn't this just a variation of what you said (1) before this season started based on last year's numbers, and (2) back in May when Trachsel had a good start? Yet here he is, with the ERA of a no. 3 starter.

I wouldn't go in to 2008 with a plan that gives me 5 viable starting pitcher opitions, one of whom is Trachsel. But if he's one of about 7-8 options, that's fine. Make Penn and Olson prove they are worthy. Make Loewen prove he's healthy and not too rusty. Make Cabrera prove he can take a step forward instead of running in place.

Agree 100%.

[wildcard]

I think the Orioles are justified if they decide to exercise the $4.75 mm option they have on Trachsel. He has been good a lot more often than he has been bad this year. We don't know what to expect from most of our young guys, and we need a viable alternative of one or more of them isn't ready to step up, or gets hurt. Trachsel gets no respect, and you can make all the K/BB, xFIP, DIPS and age arguments you want, but he has done a good job this year and has been a consistent performer for a very long time.

You could be right, but I think you about a month early. Let's see what he does in September.

[ATO UMD]

If the team is going to base its future around the young pitching we have throughout the organization, there's no point in keeping Trachsel around at all.

Any combination of: Bedard, Cabrera, Olson, Loewen, Guthrie, Liz and/or Penn works for me.

[osfan83]

Just because you blindfolded yourself, ran across 6 lanes of traffic in rush hour and lived to tell about it, doesn't mean it's safe, and you will be able to do it again.

[DrungoHazewood]

Didn't we hear the same things about Traschel last year? Now, maybe he does fall off the cliff, but I was hearing the same things about Traschel last April and it hasn't happened yet. What makes his failure inevitable next year, when supposedly it was inevitable this year and it didn't happen?

So you're fine with betting on a historically unique performance? I think I said at the time of the Trachsel signing that occasionally you'll see someone with ugly K rates have a decent year. It does happen. But those players, almost without exception, drastically decline the next season. Trachsel doesn't even have the benefit of an exceptionally low walk rate, or any other exceptional performance measures. It's all smoke and mirrors, unless you believe he's figured out an entirely new, unique way of pitching successfully.

Just because someone has run 100 yards on the edge of the Grand Canyon without falling over doesn't mean you should bet on him making it through the next 100 yards. I'm not sure there's a single player in all of major league baseball with a higher likelihood of collapse than Steve Trachsel.

[BigDawg819]

Trax, the wily vet, has done exactly what I expected him to do so far this year. He goes out there and battles and gives you your money's worth every time he toes the rubber. Some playoff team or contender or a playoff spot is going to regret grabbing him for the stretch run.