The Bullpen Has Blown 7 Games for Trachsel

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah if baseball was like a computer game then analyzation of stats should be able to predict the winners each season. Of course stats don't account for the human factor, or unexplained anamolies.

I would love some statistician for example to explain why Corey Patterson for example reversed his trend from last season where he could hit LH pitching but hit well against RH pitching and this year it is just the reverse.

My theory on this is he worked hard during the offseason to improve and maybe took a lot of extra batting practice and worked out against a LH pitcher. However, by doing so he diminished his previous ability to hit a RH pitcher. I don't know if this is a valid theory but it is the only one I can think of. Otherwise it just doesn't make a lick of sense!

Patterson has reverse splits this year because most players have a relatively similar platoon split. Given 150 or 200 PAs an individual's performance can vary much more than that platoon split. Patterson wasn't as bad against lefties as he appeared last year, nor as good as he looks this year.

Going forward you'd do much better to assume he's going to hit his career averages of .734 vs. righties and .657 vs. lefties than you would to assume he's suddenly decided to work on his hitting and figured out how to hit lefties at the age of 27.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah, and Corey Patterson was so bad last year at hitting LH pitchers that many Orioles fans wanted him gone or at least out of the lineup against lefties. Now this year the opposite is true! Splain that one Ricky!

IMHO that is just another example of how you simply cannot predict the future based on past stats even in the major leagues from year to year. To predict or project stats from the minors to majors is nothing more than a crapshoot period.

See post #31 in this thread.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah if baseball was like a computer game then analyzation of stats should be able to predict the winners each season. Of course stats don't account for the human factor, or unexplained anamolies.

I would love some statistician for example to explain why Corey Patterson for example reversed his trend from last season where he could hit LH pitching but hit well against RH pitching and this year it is just the reverse.

My theory on this is he worked hard during the offseason to improve and maybe took a lot of extra batting practice and worked out against a LH pitcher. However, by doing so he diminished his previous ability to hit a RH pitcher. I don't know if this is a valid theory but it is the only one I can think of. Otherwise it just doesn't make a lick of sense!

Things like this can vary year to year....In 2003 and 2004, CPat was very solid versus lefties...In 2002, 2005 and 2006, he was very poor versus them.

[Old#5fan]

Patterson has reverse splits this year because most players have a relatively similar platoon split. Given 150 or 200 PAs an individual's performance can vary much more than that platoon split. Patterson wasn't as bad against lefties as he appeared last year, nor as good as he looks this year.

Going forward you'd do much better to assume he's going to hit his career averages of .734 vs. righties and .657 vs. lefties than you would to assume he's suddenly decided to work on his hitting and figured out how to hit lefties at the age of 27.

Okay, if you say so. Under your stats based projections what will he do next season? In other words will he revert back to hitting poorly against LH pitching and better against RH pitching? If what you say is true than he is due for a year where he hits about the same against both or so it would seem?

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, and Corey Patterson was so bad last year at hitting LH pitchers that many Orioles fans wanted him gone or at least out of the lineup against lefties. Now this year the opposite is true! Splain that one Ricky!

IMHO that is just another example of how you simply cannot predict the future based on past stats even in the major leagues from year to year. To predict or project stats from the minors to majors is nothing more than a crapshoot period.

There is that word again Eli.

[Sports Guy]

SG, for you, I recommend "Reading Comprehension 101" before "Stats 101"....

And for you, i recommend "i don't understand what i am talking about 101".

End of the day, you should always use the best future stats to figure things out...Yes they are humans and yes things happen but to ever build a team like that or sign a player like that is beyond stupid.

[Old#5fan]

There is that word again Eli.

I am not trying to cause anyone a problem but I don't think the use of that word would be considered illegal would it?

[DrungoHazewood]

Okay, if you say so. Under your stats based projections what will he do next season? In other words will he revert back to hitting poorly against LH pitching and better against RH pitching? If what you say is true than he is due for a year where he hits about the same against both or so it would seem?

You're misunderstanding the predictive value of individual numbers. No one says they're a crystal ball. They just give us a likely range of what's going to happen.

If someone put a gun to my head and ask what Patterson's platoon splits would be next year I'd give them his career averages. But I'd know full well that they could vary significantly from that because that's the nature of a 200 at bat trial.

[Sports Guy]

I am not trying to cause anyone a problem but I don't think the use of that word would be considered illegal would it?

No, its not illegal.

[Old#5fan]

And for you, i recommend "i don't understand what i am talking about 101".

End of the day, you should always use the best future stats to figure things out...Yes they are humans and yes things happen but to ever build a team liek that or sign a player like that is beyond stupid.

Actually, I think it would make much more sense to use scouting reports along with stats as a backup. But what do I know?

[DrungoHazewood]

I am not trying to cause anyone a problem but I don't think the use of that word would be considered illegal would it?

Not illegal, no. But in the context you're using it it's incorrect.

[RShack]

So you're of the opinion that Trachsel is likely to continue his currently adequate ERA?

No, I am of the opinion that past performance is not only the best predictor of future performance, it is also a pretty lousy predictor. Just because it's the best predictor we have, that does not make it trustworthy.

Furthermore, the best predictor of an individual's performance is the past performance of that very individual, not normative data about everybody. And even that is a poor predictor.

Don't turn this into something it's not. Don't turn it into some goofy "let's play Luis everyday" claim. Just be reasonable. You are looking for stats-based certainty when the actual truth is a great deal more uncertain than the conclusions you reach based on normative data about past performance.

According to the discussions around here, Jeff Kent could never happen, Steve Finley could never happen, Roger Clemens could never happen, Melvin Mora could never happen, Mike Cuellar could never happen. LOTS of things could never happen.

(Now, how long until somebody says, "Oh, you think Trax is like Clemens huh?")

[Sports Guy]

Actually, I think it would make much more sense to use scouting reports along with stats as a backup. But what do I know?

Scouting reports should be used for certain things but even scouts get things wrong.

For example...We have seen ONE scout say they think Luis Hernandez can be a ML SS. Well, we have yet to see more than that and while he may be ready defensively, anyone who thinks he is ready with the bat has no idea what they are talking about.

So, sometimes they have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Scouting reports should be used on players you haven't seen but even those aren't accurate a lot.

I remember wanting Kaz Matsui...I had never seen him play but all the scouting reports i saw raved about him....Well, i ignored his stats that would have told me he wasn't going to be that good of a MLer.

[hoosiers]

I love threads like these - especially when they contain ridiculous phrases like "historically unique" to explain being confounded by the great Master Traschel.

Among obvious mistakes, this has been a quality pickup by our FO. I hope we deal him soon, but I see no reason to accept any average AA arm for him.

[DrungoHazewood]

Actually, I think it would make much more sense to use scouting reports along with stats as a backup. But what do I know?

Why not use all of the information at your disposal, weighting it by what makes sense for each individual case? There are players for whom a statistical analysis makes sense, players with less of a track record for whom scouting reports should hold more weight, and players for whom other information could be invaluable.