Hoppy signs with Orioles

[QBsILLEST1]

Well, Hoppy is a pretty good talent who got 5th round $$, but was apparently a possible 1st dayer if it werent for his college commitment.

[QBsILLEST1]

This is a very intresting fact that probably calls for its own thread, but I'll comment here for now.

Given McPhail's stated preference for playing the odds by acquiring a high quantity of high upside talent rather than targeting a specific guy or two, this draft makes a ton of sense.

Is it now safe to assume that, in the absense of a top-notch blue-chip prospect (e.g., Wieters, Longoria, Porcello...not Matzek or Green), McPhail will go for the best talent that signs at a modest price in order to save budget $'s and allow the team to go after more of these late-round guys? I think so.

However, I still wonder if it's safe to assume that McPhail would draft the top guy - think Strasburg in 2010 - rather than continue to implement the 2009 strategy. Does he value the combined value of guys like Hobgood, Ohlman, Landers, Hoppy and Webb over a single blue chipper? Should he?

IMO The Wieters pick is evidence that JJ and AM will take the blue chipper if available. The problem with this year's draft as you stated was that there was no Wieters or Porcello who was truely worth above slot $$. So, AM and JJ made the adjustment of ratehr than targeting the one guy who will soak up all the $$, he took interest in many high ceiling and high risk ball players. I honestly love what they did with this draft, but if Strasburg or Harper were available at our pick next year, I think we take em.

[PBR Street Gang]

It's beginning to appear that these guys (the high school picks) will be playing together for a long time. It should be fun to watch them over the next few years. I glanced at their stats last night and they all are doing reasonably well so far.

[LookinUp]

IMO The Wieters pick is evidence that JJ and AM will take the blue chipper if available. The problem with this year's draft as you stated was that there was no Wieters or Porcello who was truely worth above slot $$. So, AM and JJ made the adjustment of ratehr than targeting the one guy who will soak up all the $$, he took interest in many high ceiling and high risk ball players. I honestly love what they did with this draft, but if Strasburg or Harper were available at our pick next year, I think we take em.

AM wasn't here when Wieters was picked. Once picked, AM would have looked pretty bad if he didn't sign a blue-chipper like him.

Jordan isn't the issue here. If his only job were to take the BPA at every pick, he'd have probably taken guys like Matzek and Stassi in this draft. I get the feeling that his job is more sophisticated than that though. He has to craft a draft that results in the O's actually acquiring the most talent (in terms of quality AND quantity).

I actually think the availability of blue-chippers would trump the 2009 strategy, but I'm not taking that for granted.

[jerios55]

This is a very intresting fact that probably calls for its own thread, but I'll comment here for now.

Given McPhail's stated preference for playing the odds by acquiring a high quantity of high upside talent rather than targeting a specific guy or two, this draft makes a ton of sense.

Is it now safe to assume that, in the absense of a top-notch blue-chip prospect (e.g., Wieters, Longoria, Porcello...not Matzek or Green), McPhail will go for the best talent that signs at a modest price in order to save budget $'s and allow the team to go after more of these late-round guys? I think so.

However, I still wonder if it's safe to assume that McPhail would draft the top guy - think Strasburg in 2010 - rather than continue to implement the 2009 strategy. Does he value the combined value of guys like Hobgood, Ohlman, Landers, Hoppy and Webb over a single blue chipper? Should he?

Are you saying that if Wieters was in this draft class, would PA/AM/JJ still go hard after signability guys? I would hope so, but that would require a draft budget in the 12 million range.

It seems that JJ got a certain amount of money based on what they thought guys were worth. If that is the case they might (and should) bump the budget if a true blue chipper is available.

[QBsILLEST1]

AM wasn't here when Wieters was picked. Once picked, AM would have looked pretty bad if he didn't sign a blue-chipper like him.

Jordan isn't the issue here. If his only job were to take the BPA at every pick, he'd have probably taken guys like Matzek and Stassi in this draft. I get the feeling that his job is more sophisticated than that though. He has to craft a draft that results in the O's actually acquiring the most talent (in terms of quality AND quality).

I actually think the availability of blue-chippers would trump the 2009 strategy, but I'm not taking that for granted.

Me too, I agree. Id probably take Strasburg over everyone combined who we took this year, if only because we know that Strasburg could pitch in the majors right now effectively. If it were Bryce Harper, my opinion differs and Id have to think about it more.

[crawdad]

Me too, I agree. Id probably take Strasburg over everyone combined who we took this year, if only because we know that Strasburg could pitch in the majors right now effectively. If it were Bryce Harper, my opinion differs and Id have to think about it more.

I disagree. If I had a choice between Strasburg at 20MM or 20MM spent on players in the draft. I would take the later.

The later would get you: Matzek, Hamilton, Glaesman, Stassi, Malm, Von Rosenburg, Krol, Harris, Volz, and Merrero.

Of course, it may be easier to argue spending 20MM on one guy as opposed to several even though the later makes more sense.

[olehippi]

I met Hoppy and shook his hand. I think it was at Hutzler's, on North Howard St. back around 1951-52. He was dressed all in black, with a black hat, and had two ivory handled, silver-plated six-guns strapped on his hips.

Don't know if he could hit a fast ball or not.....

[LookinUp]

Are you saying that if Wieters was in this draft class, would PA/AM/JJ still go hard after signability guys? I would hope so, but that would require a draft budget in the 12 million range.

It seems that JJ got a certain amount of money based on what they thought guys were worth. If that is the case they might (and should) bump the budget if a true blue chipper is available.

I'm questioning whether we'd go after nearly as many signability guys. I genuinely don't know the answer. I assume the answer is no, but don't know the degree that it would change.

The O's budget has changed so much in the last 2 years (MASN, bad economy, less committed to payroll, DR investment) that I think the answer is unknowable.

I guess the question really is: how flexible is the draft budget? Would PA add $3 million to the overall budget if the next Matt Wieters is available at our pick next year? I'd guess the answer is yes, that he'd add money, but not on a dollar for dollar basis (between actual signing and slot).

[LookinUp]

I disagree. If I had a choice between Strasburg at 20MM or 20MM spent on players in the draft. I would take the later.

The later would get you: Matzek, Hamilton, Glaesman, Stassi, Malm, Von Rosenburg, Krol, Harris, Volz, and Merrero.

Of course, it may be easier to argue spending 20MM on one guy as opposed to several even though the later makes more sense.

This really is an interesting take, because it argues for taking a Hobgood type over a Wieters type. Most on this board would disagree, but they might not be correct.

[QBsILLEST1]

I disagree. If I had a choice between Strasburg at 20MM or 20MM spent on players in the draft. I would take the later.

The later would get you: Matzek, Hamilton, Glaesman, Stassi, Malm, Von Rosenburg, Krol, Harris, Volz, and Merrero.

Of course, it may be easier to argue spending 20MM on one guy as opposed to several even though the later makes more sense.

Well, yeah, if they had 20mil to spend Id love to take the ladder as well, but it probably wouldnt be that way, Itd be something like $20Mil for Strasburg or $6mill for the draft w/o Strasburg. I just dont see the O's ponying up that much money unless it is for 1 big namer like Strasburg. But if a miracle occured and PA said here is $20 mill for the draft whether you take Strasburg or not, then I agree with you, spend that $20 mill on a bunch of premium talent rather than just 1, I just dont see it happening....

[clarence]

I don't think you can look at budgets and what players you would pick in such black and white terms. For guys like Wieters and Strasberg, the money it takes to sign them should almost be considered money spent on the major league team since you know they aren't going to spend more than a year or so in your minor league system. I think a team would still have to look at setting a budget for what they plan to spend on their farm system, and ignore the price of a guy who is already beating on the door to play in the majors.

Now signing a high schooler who is probably at best case three to four years away for a ridiculous amount of money, would, imo, hurt the number of above slot picks you could sign. It's just reality.

[BringBackMagic]

http://www.bucknellbison.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/hoppy_kyle00.html

I wonder how long it will be before Bucknell pulls this down.