Who is the #7 prospect?

[Sports Guy]

My top 7 would be:

Matusz

Arrieta

Bell

Erbe

Hobgood

Britton

Snyder

I think Tony's will be:

Matusz

Bell

Arrieta

Britton

Hobgood

Snyder

Erbe

Tony is going to have Britton over Arrieta for sure.

Matusz

Britton

Arrieta

Bell

Snyder

Hobgood

Erbe

That's how I see the top 7 for Tony although 3-6 could be flip flopped in any way IMO.

For me, I would have:

Matusz

Arrieta

Bell

Britton

Erbe

Hobgood

Snyder

[LookinUp]

I've watched him personally quite a bit and I don't have a doubt that he could be and should be a starter. What will ultimately decide where he ends up will be his amount of success in the majors, no matter what he looks like in the minors, once he gets there, he either does or does not, and if he does not, he could be moved to the pen, this however is true for every pitching prospect, not just Erbe.

Well sure, but 3 average pitches, poor mechanics and shoulder fatigue seem to indicate that he won't exactly be dynamic OR an innings eater. Maybe he's a #5 type of guy.

[byrdz]

I'm really bad these things, got 10 and 8 right according to John's, but from here on it gets tougher for me. Picked Givens but I suspect he'll be ranked higher?

[QBsILLEST1]

Well sure, but 3 average pitches, poor mechanics and shoulder fatigue seem to indicate that he won't exactly be dynamic OR an innings eater. Maybe he's a #5 type of guy.

Ehh, poor mechanics, according to who? For every person you see that says he has bad mechanics, youll find 1 person that says his mechanics are fine. From every indication and publicatiopn I have read that has been updated says that Erbe has smoothed out his deleivery and it is much safer now. And he had shoulder fatigue once in 4 years in the system. I would hardly consider that a chronic problem, and Britton went down with shoulder fatigue at the end of the year too, dioesnt mean hes destined for the pen. In actuality, probably 85% or more ML pitchers have at one point or another went trhough a dead arm period. It happens. Sometimes from not getting your arm into the perfect shape before the season, or sometimes it happens after a long season of pitching....Neither of these things IMO will determine whether or not Erbe will need to be moved to the pen....Shoot, look at Guthrie, he has a MAX effort delivery and is injured about every year except for 09, and he remains a fixture in our rotation.....

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm really bad these things, got 10 and 8 right according to John's, but from here on it gets tougher for me. Picked Givens but I suspect he'll be ranked higher?

Nah, Givens will be ranked lower. IMO hes gonna be in the 12-15 range.....

[Big Mac]

Ehh, poor mechanics, according to who? For every person you see that says he has bad mechanics, youll find 1 person that says his mechanics are fine. From every indication and publicatiopn I have read that has been updated says that Erbe has smoothed out his deleivery and it is much safer now. And he had shoulder fatigue once in 4 years in the system. I would hardly consider that a chronic problem, and Britton went down with shoulder fatigue at the end of the year too, dioesnt mean hes destined for the pen. In actuality, probably 85% or more ML pitchers have at one point or another went trhough a dead arm period. It happens. Sometimes from not getting your arm into the perfect shape before the season, or sometimes it happens after a long season of pitching....Neither of these things IMO will determine whether or not Erbe will need to be moved to the pen....Shoot, look at Guthrie, he has a MAX effort delivery and is injured about every year except for 09, and he remains a fixture in our rotation.....

There's a difference between a dead arm period and mysterious shoulder fatigue that cause you to miss half the season.

And I'll take Tony's opinon on Erbe over any major publication. He sees Erbe way more than any of those guys.

[allstar1579]

Well sure, but 3 average pitches, poor mechanics and shoulder fatigue seem to indicate that he won't exactly be dynamic OR an innings eater. Maybe he's a #5 type of guy.

See, that's whats messed up about this place. It's what has been said lately. I covered him really in depth for the past couple months that would answer all of that, but one person can come out and make completely contradictory statements one time and then all of a sudden that is how it is. Not saying that has necessarily happened in this case, but I'm kinda tired of arguing the same points about him over and over again. Not directed at you, just in general, seems like the same Erbe questions come up 100 times from 100 different people.

Short story...poor mechanics were cleaned up over a year ago. Shoulder fatigue was an isolated thing from not getting stretched out in ST, it was a non-issue end of the season. He has pitched plenty in his other seasons, it was one year, not like this is a trend. I wouldn't go calling his pitches average either. The command on his fastball has definitely improved, and is easily above-average, his slider is close to a plus pitch, his change is average but would be better if he used it more, and his curve is still out there if they want to bring it back.

A guy's place in the rotation has to do more with the amount of talent through the rotation than a specific guy's potential though. If we have a good rotation and he slots at 5 its a lot better than having a bad rotation and him not being able to lead it.

[LookinUp]

See, that's whats messed up about this place. It's what has been said lately. I covered him really in depth for the past couple months that would answer all of that, but one person can come out and make completely contradictory statements one time and then all of a sudden that is how it is. Not saying that has necessarily happened in this case, but I'm kinda tired of arguing the same points about him over and over again. Not directed at you, just in general, seems like the same Erbe questions come up 100 times from 100 different people.

Short story...poor mechanics were cleaned up over a year ago. Shoulder fatigue was an isolated thing from not getting stretched out in ST, it was a non-issue end of the season. He has pitched plenty in his other seasons, it was one year, not like this is a trend. I wouldn't go calling his pitches average either. The command on his fastball has definitely improved, and is easily above-average, his slider is close to a plus pitch, his change is average but would be better if he used it more, and his curve is still out there if they want to bring it back.

A guy's place in the rotation has to do more with the amount of talent through the rotation than a specific guy's potential though. If we have a good rotation and he slots at 5 its a lot better than having a bad rotation and him not being able to lead it.

I appreciate what you're saying, but that won't make me discount Tony's take, which is what I was referring to. I have a lot of respect for your opinion on this, really, but it's not like Old5Fan came up here with his opinion of Erbe. It was Tony's opinion, which carries a good amount of weight (as does yours).

FWIW, I really hope you're right.

[alexei606]

See, that's whats messed up about this place. It's what has been said lately. I covered him really in depth for the past couple months that would answer all of that, but one person can come out and make completely contradictory statements one time and then all of a sudden that is how it is. Not saying that has necessarily happened in this case, but I'm kinda tired of arguing the same points about him over and over again. Not directed at you, just in general, seems like the same Erbe questions come up 100 times from 100 different people.

Short story...poor mechanics were cleaned up over a year ago. Shoulder fatigue was an isolated thing from not getting stretched out in ST, it was a non-issue end of the season. He has pitched plenty in his other seasons, it was one year, not like this is a trend. I wouldn't go calling his pitches average either. The command on his fastball has definitely improved, and is easily above-average, his slider is close to a plus pitch, his change is average but would be better if he used it more, and his curve is still out there if they want to bring it back.

A guy's place in the rotation has to do more with the amount of talent through the rotation than a specific guy's potential though. If we have a good rotation and he slots at 5 its a lot better than having a bad rotation and him not being able to lead it.

Thanks again! I have been reading your reports on Erbe and know that you were at most of his starts (if not all) after he came back from the DL and also spoke to him. I don't know if Tony did the same, but, I doubt he had the time although I am sure he will state if he did. So, if Tony did not see Erbe as much as you did, plus he still states there is a hop in his delivery which I know others besides you have stated that was fixed, then I definitely take your analysis over his. Some managers/scouts in the EL thought that Erbe was better than Arrieta according to Manual (BA). That also indicates that Erbe may be under rated here. Personally, I think he is and would rate him higher than Hobgood and most likely Britton since he is dominating at AA, a level higher at the same age.

[allstar1579]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to start some "he is wrong, I am right" thing here. If Tony and I both agreed on everyone it would get kinda boring around here. I think in the end it we'll have to wait and see and then one of us gets to say told you so later :laughlol:.

I do agree with him though that Britton is the better prospect, but that is speaking for his amount of talent, not Brandon's lack of. I wouldn't have a problem saying that Erbe is our 4th best pitching prospect currently.

There is just a lot of scrutiny around here of our top pitching prospects and I think part of it is that we are so used to losing around here that we just kind of assume that every great prospect we have is going to get screwed up somehow, so when you read something negative it's not hard to question.

I finally found that blurb of what Tony said a little while ago, the only question I have is was his pitching coach saying that he WILL have average pitches or does he NOW? This season was a real discovery season for Brandon, as I wrote before he did a lot of adjusting and learning how to pitch, a project that isn't finished, but greatly improved, and I'm pretty confident you'll see more adjustment next season.

[alexei606]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to start some "he is wrong, I am right" thing here. If Tony and I both agreed on everyone it would get kinda boring around here. I think in the end it we'll have to wait and see and then one of us gets to say told you so later :laughlol:.

I do agree with him though that Britton is the better prospect, but that is speaking for his amount of talent, not Brandon's lack of. I wouldn't have a problem saying that Erbe is our 4th best pitching prospect currently.

There is just a lot of scrutiny around here of our top pitching prospects and I think part of it is that we are so used to losing around here that we just kind of assume that every great prospect we have is going to get screwed up somehow, so when you read something negative it's not hard to question.

I finally found that blurb of what Tony said a little while ago, the only question I have is was his pitching coach saying that he WILL have average pitches or does he NOW? This season was a real discovery season for Brandon, as I wrote before he did a lot of adjusting and learning how to pitch, a project that isn't finished, but greatly improved, and I'm pretty confident you'll see more adjustment next season.

I hope no one thinks you are trying to "start some "he is wrong, I am right" thing here." I certainly did not take any of your posts to be that way and I hope no one thought my agreeing with your assessment is doing that. I don't agree with either one of you on Erbe vs Britton, so there.

That said, I enjoy and learn from your, Stotle's and Tony's posts on prospects and I also check other sites. Since I am not in the area as I once was, I can't check them out personally, so it is great to get every one's perspective and it is really nice when you or Tony or Stotle or Doc Shorebird, etal can also give their assessments from watching the prospects in action.

[JayThomas]

I'll go on a limb and say Hobgood...didn't really do much enough in his short stint to really make noise and crack the top 5. I have to think the rest are higher than he is, except Givens who isn't in the top 10 at all.

If so then you've run out of numbers. These guys sort of need to be the 7:

Matusz

Arrieta

Johnson

Britton

Erbe

Snyder

Bell

[Arthur_Bryant]

If so then you've run out of numbers. These guys sort of need to be the 7:

Matusz

Arrieta

Johnson

Britton

Erbe

Snyder

Bell

Johnson is not Top 7.

[Lucky Jim]

Johnson is not Top 7.

Johnson isn't even close to top 7. Unless we're talking about Dave Johnson's top 7.

[weams]

Johnson is not Top 7.

Isn't that something? A guy like him would have been top 3 five years ago.