What adjustments do you think AM will make to contend in this division?

[JTrea81]

Do you think he will be willing to hand out 100+ million dollar contracts?

More importantly, who is he going to hand those contracts out to? The talent doesn't exist to sign in a year.

[QBsILLEST1]

Not so sure about Hernandez but I forgot about Mickolio who was impressive until he got hurt. However, I think they need to be better now.

Why are you not so sure about Hernandez? He pitched pretty well out of the pne earlier in the year. He has a tremndous fastball that hed be able to hike up even more in shorter stints. The fact he only has 2 major league pitches wouldnt be exploited in the pen like it is in the rotation. IMO hed be a perfect candidate for the bullpen.

Hendrickson

Sarfate

Hernandez

Mickolio

Johnson

Uehara

Berken IMO should take Albers place. Ray needs to be kept because his stuff is too good to forget about him, BUT this year is his determining year. Its not supposed to take 3 years to come back fully from TJ surgery, if he doesnt show something soon, Id get rid of him.

Cant forget about Lebron and Perez either, theyll be ready for the ML by some point next season. They too should help solidfy the bullpen. I honestly see our pen being a future strength....

[wildcard]

Do you think he will be willing to hand out 100+ million dollar contracts?

He gave $66M is Markakis. That is a known fact. He said he offered $120M to Tex. That is questionable. Sounds like for the right player he will spend over $100M.

[JTrea81]

He gave $66M is Markakis. That is a known fact. He said he offered $120M to Tex. That is questionable. Sounds like for the right player he will spend over $100M.

Do you think he'll give Fielder or Gonzalez 160-200 million after 2011?

[Sports Guy]

He gave $66M is Markakis. That is a known fact. He said he offered $120M to Tex. That is questionable. Sounds like for the right player he will spend over $100M.

The money to Markakis isn't worth mentioning because 3 of those years were under contract anyway.

And he said that Tex was an exception.

Are there any other top level Baltimore born and raised FAs coming up?

[Frobby]

I think you'll see MacPhail be willing to spend, after we're already a pretty good team. Until then, I think he'll stick with the rebuilding plan and going with youth. If he sees we've hit the 85-88 win wall, I think he will realize he needs to spend to put us into true contention.

[TonySoprano]

AM is very good at a lot of things, namely building a very good foundation for potential long term success.

I'm going to stop you right there. Having a plan, and executing it to success are two different things. I believe the youth movement plan is the way to go. However, there is nothing is Andy's past record to indicate that he is able to build sustainable, as in long-term success.

YR	TM	W  	L  	PCT1985	MIN 	77	85	0.4751986	MIN 	71	91	0.4381987	MIN 	85	77	0.5251988	MIN 	91	71	0.5621989	MIN 	80	82	0.4941990	MIN 	74	88	0.4571991	MIN 	95	67	0.5861992	MIN 	90	72	0.5561993	MIN 	71	91	0.4381994	MIN 	53	60	0.469TOTL	MIN 	787	784	0.5011995	CHC	73	71	0.5071996	CHC	76	86	0.4691997	CHC	68	94	0.4201998	CHC	90	73	0.5521999	CHC	67	95	0.4142000	CHC	65	97	0.4012001	CHC	88	74	0.5432002	CHC	67	95	0.4142003	CHC	88	74	0.5432004	CHC	89	73	0.5492005	CHC	79	83	2006	CHC	66	96	TOTL	CHC	916	1011	0.475TOTL	ALL	1703	1795	0.487

He had six losing seasons out of ten in Minnesota; eight losing seasons out of twelve in Chicago. In twenty-two seasons, the longest winning streak he had is two years. Compare that to the records of Epstein and Cashman, with all the resources at their disposal. In terms of payroll, Andy's Cubs were the Red Sox of the NL Central, averaging the second highest payroll in their division during his twelve seasons (highest in '99, '02, and '04)

Andy may get us to a winning season, and may even get us to the playoffs one year. I have real doubts that he'll be able to build long-term, sustainable success, particularly in this division.

[Frobby]

I'm going to stop you right there. Having a plan, and executing it to success are two different things. I believe the youth movement plan is the way to go. However, there is nothing is Andy's past record to indicate that he is able to build sustainable, as in long-term success.

* * *

He had six losing seasons out of ten in Minnesota; eight losing seasons out of twelve in Chicago. In twenty-two seasons, the longest winning streak he had is two years. Compare that to the records of Epstein and Cashman, with all the resources at their disposal. In terms of payroll, Andy's Cubs were the Red Sox of the NL Central, averaging the second highest payroll in their division during his twelve seasons (highest in '99, '02, and '04)

Andy may get us to a winning season, and may even get us to the playoffs one year. I have real doubts that he'll be able to build long-term, sustainable success, particularly in this division.

Fair point. And just generally, having sustained success in a division where two rivals are always going to outspend you is very difficult to do. Still, I do like the path the team is on. There's a nice young core there to build around and there should be a good period of time there where they are all near their peak.

[RShack]

He had six losing seasons out of ten in Minnesota; eight losing seasons out of twelve in Chicago. In twenty-two seasons, the longest winning streak he had is two years. Compare that to the records of Epstein and Cashman, with all the resources at their disposal. In terms of payroll, Andy's Cubs were the Red Sox of the NL Central, averaging the second highest payroll in their division during his twelve seasons (highest in '99, '02, and '04)

Andy may get us to a winning season, and may even get us to the playoffs one year. I have real doubts that he'll be able to build long-term, sustainable success, particularly in this division.

It comes down to whether you think his tenure here will be a repeat of the past, despite key differences in the focus of his job and the particulars of his circumstances. Personally, I don't think it will be. I think his previous professional experience has prepared him for this job. I think this job will be his legacy job. It comes down to whether you think he's gonna blow it. I don't, but I completely agree that it's not some foregone conclusion. There is only one way to find out.

[TonySoprano]

It comes down to whether you think his tenure here will be a repeat of the past, despite key differences in the focus of his job and the particulars of his circumstances. Personally, I don't think it will be. I think his previous professional experience has prepared him for this job. I think this job will be his legacy job. It comes down to whether you think he's gonna blow it. I don't, but I completely agree that it's not some foregone conclusion. There is only one way to find out.

Well, I have twenty-two seasons of past work to base my conclusions. Add in two years in Baltimore. You have what?

I submit the challenges of the two Central divisions he competed in were less than the challenges he faces in the AL East. The song goes if you can make it there [NY], you can make it anywhere. Andy didn't quite make it in Minnesota or Chicago, so I don't think he'll make it versus NY, not long-term.

[wildcard]

I think it comes down to when Andy becomes Commissioner. How long does he stay with the O's. If he stays and starts to win, which I think he will, he will have a revenue machine on this hands. Baltimore is so ready for a winner that the Yard will be filled and not with Yankee and Red Sox fans.

I think the O's franchise is a sleeping giant. Great park, building farm system, their own media outlet that includes the Wash metro area, new spring training facility. All they need is a winning team to blow the doors off this franchise.

[Sports Guy]

Well, I have twenty-two seasons of past work to base my conclusions. Add in two years in Baltimore. You have what?

I submit the challenges of the two Central divisions he competed in were less than the challenges he faces in the AL East. The song goes if you can make it there [NY], you can make it anywhere. Andy didn't quite make it in Minnesota or Chicago, so I don't think he'll make it versus NY, not long-term.

Yea, people bringing up what he did in those situations are wrong IMO.

They show that he can build through the farm system and make good trades...But the has to do so much more to contend in this division.

That's what I am getting at in this thread...Will he deviate from his philosophies to do what it takes or will he stick to his usually ways of doing things?

[RShack]

Well, I have twenty-two seasons of past work to base my conclusions. Add in two years in Baltimore. You have what?

Is that a real question or a rhetorical one?

I'll assume it's a real one. Here's what I have observed:

• A sensible approach when he got here: taking some time to size things up.
• A willingness to be honest about the situation: admitting it was worse than he thought.
• An insightful plan: nobody with any sense has challenged the approach he laid out.
• A disciplined performance: so far, he's done exactly what he's said he's gonna do, and done it very well.

The only thing that's really in doubt is whether he will implement the latter stages as well as he has the early stages. Because there is an inherent progression here, it's impossible to know that. So, it really comes down to which evidence you choose to trust: The evidence he has provided to Baltimore in his time in Baltimore? Or conclusions based on what he did in other times in other places in other circumstances. That's really what the difference in perspective is about. And, until the future happens, it's an unanswerable question. So far, the only ones who are wrong are those who pretend they know something when they don't. The fact of the matter is that everybody's just guessing, including me and including you.

I submit the challenges of the two Central divisions he competed in were less than the challenges he faces in the AL East. The song goes if you can make it there [NY], you can make it anywhere. Andy didn't quite make it in Minnesota or Chicago, so I don't think he'll make it versus NY, not long-term.

I submit that songs and cliches don't have anything to do with it. I also submit that what happened years ago in the Central is not some highly-accurate predictor of what happens here and now because, as you say, things are different here. Look, you can't have it both ways: you can't say it's different in some ways (like the challenges) but not different in other ways (like AM's some kind of static entity who does not learn from experience and adapt). The only way you can do that is if you believe that (a) you notice things that AM doesn't notice properly, and/or (b) you think AM will fail to respond effectively to what he does notice, for some mysterious arbitrary reason.

So far, the only mystery reason that people are putting out there for how-and-why he will not do what's required is that he'll refuse to spend more than $X of PA's money, even though PA wants him to, as if AM is some kind of neo-Puritan when it comes to $-amounts. The so-called evidence for this belief is a combination of what he did with the un-rich Twins and what he did when he was working for the Tribune and was in charge of watching the balance sheet for the corporate master. His job is different here. All indications are that PA has not told him to watch pennies, PA has told him to fix the damn thing properly, thus redeeming PA's legacy. In short, his job description is basically to do what his Dad did here, and that's a job he never had before. It remains to be seen exactly how he will do in the end. But to me it seems like "so far, so good".

[mweb]

The FA class isn't good until after 2011.

The two best bats are Crawford and Mauer, again two positions we have filled. And Holliday is better than Crawford IMO.

There are plenty of premium arms available, but they'll get more than Lackey will.

So we'll be left with the past their prime guys like Konerko and Lee who will want multi year deals.

Why? If there's only one premium arm availabe this year and about 4 next year, wouldn't it make sense that the guy without competition would get more relative to his worth?

Aren't you for trading for Lee if we can extend him? If so, why would you want to trade valuable players for him, but not sign him?

Dunn and Pena are also scheduled to be free agents as is Werth at LF if that's a need.

To answer the original question, I think AM will make bigger moves when he see's fit, which is probably whenever he feels the team is on the brink of contention. I don't know if that will include buying expensive arms, but an expensive bat or two is quite possible imo.

[TonySoprano]

Is that a real question or a rhetorical one?

I'll assume it's a real one. Here's what I have observed:

• A sensible approach when he got here: taking some time to size things up.
• A willingness to be honest about the situation: admitting it was worse than he thought.
• An insightful plan: nobody with any sense has challenged the approach he laid out.
• A disciplined performance: so far, he's done exactly what he's said he's gonna do, and done it very well.

The only thing that's really in doubt is whether he will implement the latter stages as well as he has the early stages. Because there is an inherent progression here, it's impossible to know that. So, it really comes down to which evidence you choose to trust: The evidence he has provided to Baltimore in his time in Baltimore? Or conclusions based on what he did in other times in other places in other circumstances. That's really what the difference in perspective is about. And, until the future happens, it's an unanswerable question. So far, the only ones who are wrong are those who pretend they know something when they don't. The fact of the matter is that everybody's just guessing, including me and including you.

I said before there's a difference between having a plan and executing it to success.

Because there is an inherent progression here, it's impossible to know that. So, it really comes down to which evidence you choose to trust: The evidence he has provided to Baltimore in his time in Baltimore? Or conclusions based on what he did in other times in other places in other circumstances. That's really what the difference in perspective is about. And, until the future happens, it's an unanswerable question.

Unanswerable? Really? This from a guy who seems to have plenty of answers such as :

But when the time comes, he'll do what is necessary.

All indications are that PA has not told him to watch pennies, PA has told him to fix the damn thing properly, thus redeeming PA's legacy.

We don't have any solid indications about PA's direction in re payroll. We do see payroll slashed from $93 mil in '07 to $67 million in '09. It remains to be seen if '10 payroll will reach the level of 2009. I'm not saying I disagree with eliminating deadweight from the payroll. But it's not *apparent* that some of the payroll cuts were solely of MacPhail's direction.

In short, his job description is basically to do what his Dad did here, and that's a job he never had before. It remains to be seen exactly how he will do in the end. But to me it seems like "so far, so good".

As predictable as sunrise, the romantic fairytale of Andy doing what his dad did. "And they all lived happily ever after."

How did his dad do rebuilding the Yankees after he left Baltimore? Never mind.

I could be wrong, and will happily admit it if it ever comes to pass. In the meantime, I'm basing my beliefs on his track record, not his dad's.