The Top 50 Prospects...

[Stotle]

Given that he may not end up being the number one prospect, I'd say this is not true. And that doesn't even account for the money demands.

Due respect, who are the comparable skill sets in your opinion? I assume one or more of the arms. Taillon got all the ink this summer. I can't think of anyone that comes close to what Harper offers, at this point.

[MiLFanatic]

Due respect, who are the comparable skill sets in your opinion? I assume one or more of the arms. Taillon got all the ink this summer. I can't think of anyone that comes close to what Harper offers, at this point.

I agree, no one has a comparable toolset. For Taillon, you can think of some good comps for past drafts with him with the Kershaws and Becketts etc. But for Harper, there really is no good comp. This to me is why he is a generational talent. The only factor that would make the Nats not take Harper is if his bonus demands are way incredibly too much. Regardless, I still see them going for him. I personally do not think the Pirates go for Taillon, though they apparenlty just changed regimes, I just do not see Taillon going there. I could see Ranaudo, or possibly a more signable position player like Brentz or even Colon. Regardless, at our slot, we will have some lovely arms to choose from between Cole, Covey and Whitson. These guys IMO are special talents. Covey has arguably the best curve in the draft(compares to Taillon's but Covey has better command of the pitch). All these guys throw low to mid 90's, Cole has massive projection and next Spring could come out throwing about as hard as Allie(mid to upper 90's). I am a bit uneasy with Cole mostly because his secondaries aren't that great, but he has such a smooth delivery and throws downhill and gets on top of the ball really really well, so to me the next 3 arms compare pretty well. I personally would be ecstatic with anyone of the arms there.

[Stotle]

I agree, no one has a comparable toolset. For Taillon, you can think of some good comps for past drafts with him with the Kershaws and Becketts etc. But for Harper, there really is no good comp. This to me is why he is a generational talent. The only factor that would make the Nats not take Harper is if his bonus demands are way incredibly too much. Regardless, I still see them going for him. I personally do not think the Pirates go for Taillon, though they apparenlty just changed regimes, I just do not see Taillon going there. I could see Ranaudo, or possibly a more signable position player like Brentz or even Colon. Regardless, at our slot, we will have some lovely arms to choose from between Cole, Covey and Whitson. These guys IMO are special talents. Covey has arguably the best curve in the draft(compares to Taillon's but Covey has better command of the pitch). All these guys throw low to mid 90's, Cole has massive projection and next Spring could come out throwing about as hard as Allie(mid to upper 90's). I am a bit uneasy with Cole mostly because his secondaries aren't that great, but he has such a smooth delivery and throws downhill and gets on top of the ball really really well, so to me the next 3 arms compare pretty well. I personally would be ecstatic with anyone of the arms there.

Not much to quibble with, other than Taillon's curve differing from Covey's mostly in that Taillon gets 2-plane action on occasion and is generally 11/4 while Covey has a true downer. College players will likely be in flux, as there isn't a ton separating the various tiers -- a little weak, right now, in my opinion. At the same time, I think there will be very interesting HSers available in nearly each of the first 10 rounds, with a number of players (particularly pitchers) dropping due to signability.

[allstar1579]

Not much to quibble with, other than Taillon's curve differing from Covey's mostly in that Taillon gets 2-plane action on occasion and is generally 11/4 while Covey has a true downer. College players will likely be in flux, as there isn't a ton separating the various tiers -- a little weak, right now, in my opinion. At the same time, I think there will be very interesting HSers available in nearly each of the first 10 rounds, with a number of players (particularly pitchers) dropping due to signability.

I am really impressed with the HS depth right now, and a few months ago I worried that it would be another college heavy draft...go figure.

I'm still not entirely sure where I stand on Harper. I think he's still a great talent and all, but I want to see him in JuCo this season before I'm ready to throw out one of those elite signing bonuses.

[Ruzious]

I agree, no one has a comparable toolset. For Taillon, you can think of some good comps for past drafts with him with the Kershaws and Becketts etc. But for Harper, there really is no good comp. This to me is why he is a generational talent. The only factor that would make the Nats not take Harper is if his bonus demands are way incredibly too much. Regardless, I still see them going for him. I personally do not think the Pirates go for Taillon, though they apparenlty just changed regimes, I just do not see Taillon going there. I could see Ranaudo, or possibly a more signable position player like Brentz or even Colon. Regardless, at our slot, we will have some lovely arms to choose from between Cole, Covey and Whitson. These guys IMO are special talents. Covey has arguably the best curve in the draft(compares to Taillon's but Covey has better command of the pitch). All these guys throw low to mid 90's, Cole has massive projection and next Spring could come out throwing about as hard as Allie(mid to upper 90's). I am a bit uneasy with Cole mostly because his secondaries aren't that great, but he has such a smooth delivery and throws downhill and gets on top of the ball really really well, so to me the next 3 arms compare pretty well. I personally would be ecstatic with anyone of the arms there.

So this will be the 2nd straight year for once in a generation talents. :scratchchinhmm: And the Nats most likely get em both. It'll be like Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey, Jr for Seattle. Who will be their A-Rod the next year? I think a lot of us have our hopes set up so high for Taillon that any of the other pitchers would be a disappointment.

[MiLFanatic]

So this will be the 2nd straight year for once in a generation talents. :scratchchinhmm: And the Nats most likely get em both. It'll be like Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey, Jr for Seattle. Who will be their A-Rod the next year? I think a lot of us have our hopes set up so high for Taillon that any of the other pitchers would be a disappointment.

I wouldn't feel that way honestly. Taillon is a tremendous pitching talent, but Covey, Cole and Whitson are not too far behind him. I think Taillon just has less questions, but there isn't a tremendous barrier in their stuff, and each pitcher has his own specific reasoning for the value. Covey has a tremendous fastball curveball combo with a solid changeup, but has no projection left. Whitson has a tremendous fastball slider combo, Cole lacks in secondaries compared to the others, but projects to have the best fastball and the best command, and hiss econdaries could end up becoming as good or close to the other mentioned guys here down the road.

I want Taillon because he has 4 pitches that project to be above average to plus-plus and he is huge and has pretty decent mechanics. I wouldn't mind more projection, but his stuff is so good right now, that its hard to imagine a realistically better HS pitching prospect.

As for the 2011 draft, there will yet again be some pretty big time elite draftees. At this point its tough to tell whether Gerrit Cole will be considered a similar talent to STrasburg, but it is possible. The fastball is certainly close, but I think G. Cole lacks behind Strasburg in his secondaries. But like I mentioned, we are comparing a arm that is 1 year removed from being the top prep arm in the draft to Strasburg who would be entering his senior year, basically theres a ton of time left for Cole's secondaires to catch up.

And 2011 will contain a few elite college arms(something we haven't seen in some time). Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, Gray are all possible elite college arms, it will be fun to watch

And I too am impressed with this year's prep class, especially the arms, but there are some strong position guys too. Griffin, Cabrera, Bryant, Allie, Castellanos etc.

[wickedwitch]

Due respect, who are the comparable skill sets in your opinion? I assume one or more of the arms. Taillon got all the ink this summer. I can't think of anyone that comes close to what Harper offers, at this point.

It's not the tools that I challenge; it's the makeup. It'll be interesting to see how he handles competition much better than he's ever faced added to the pressure of the hype he's getting.

[Robbie]

It's not the tools that I challenge; it's the makeup. It'll be interesting to see how he handles competition much better than he's ever faced added to the pressure of the hype he's getting.

Players often face differences in competition from one year to the next far greater than he will be. He is going from playing in high school and I would assume top club teams to from what I hear a top JC conference. Its not like he is playing in the top 4 year college conference.

[MiLFanatic]

Players often face differences in competition from one year to the next far greater than he will be. He is going from playing in high school and I would assume top club teams to from what I hear a top JC conference. Its not like he is playing in the top 4 year college conference.

He has been apaprently crushing the ball so far I guess in a fall league with wooden bats. I believe its a JuCo fall league but I could be wrong.....

It will be interesting to see how he reacts to the pressure.

[Stotle]

It's not the tools that I challenge; it's the makeup. It'll be interesting to see how he handles competition much better than he's ever faced added to the pressure of the hype he's getting.

I think that's a valid concern and excellent point. How a player copes with failure and maintains daily focus on improving, without losing sight of the big picture (that the best players fail constantly) is a huge deal. I take issue with those who say there are holes in his tools -- particularly because he's supposed to be a HS junior for crying out loud. But that clearly isn't your point. Thanks for clearing-up -- good post, witchy.

[McNulty]

I look forward to educating myself on the HS players for this year, but I do have one bold college prediction - Deck McGuire does not go in the first round (supplemental, maybe).

[Stotle]

I look forward to educating myself on the HS players for this year, but I do have one bold college prediction - Deck McGuire does not go in the first round (supplemental, maybe).

Wow. Way to go out on a limb there with THAT one....

In all seriousness, I don't think there is a clear-cut tier structure yet for the top college arms -- no one truly setting themselves apart. So I could definitely see any number of the guys listed as potential early picks sliding into the supplemental or second round.

[MiLFanatic]

Bold prediction eh? That would be a fun thread topic, but no one would probably post in it since its so far out.

My bold prediction would be that James Paxton finally puts it all together and solidies himself as a top 10 guy.(Dunno if its that bold, but many consider him a supplemental or later guy even.

My other bold prediction would be that Taillon isn't the 1st prep arm taken off the board come June.....

[allstar1579]

Bold prediction eh? That would be a fun thread topic, but no one would probably post in it since its so far out.

My bold prediction would be that James Paxton finally puts it all together and solidies himself as a top 10 guy.(Dunno if its that bold, but many consider him a supplemental or later guy even.

My other bold prediction would be that Taillon isn't the 1st prep arm taken off the board come June.....

Someone put the proverbial "gun to my head" a few months back and made me pick between JT and Cole, I took Cole, so I guess that's my bold prediction so far.

[jerios55]

I don't think there is any chance the Nationals DON'T pick Harper. I would love to see Jameson Taillon slip past the Pirates. Will it happen??? I don't know. Hopefully the Pirates fall in love with Ranaudo. If Taillon goes #2, I think SS Christian Colon makes a lot of sense at #3 based on what I have read.

Right now I think Harper, Taillon, Colon would be my top 3 picks, in that order. Like most (seem) here, I am very hopeful that Taillon falls to 3 and is the pick.