Steve Johnson picked by Giants - Was it a mistake not to protect him?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, I'd be surprised if BA didn't have him in the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. He was 19 for most of last year and 20 when he made his ML debut in September. His drop in velocity didn't make him less effective. I'd love to have him in my organization, that's for sure.

This will be an interesting year for MB, I think. Folks aren't going to completely discount their prior ranking because of a down-tick in velo. Especially w/ the results still there. On the other hand, if the stuff still hasn't come around (velo still down, secondaries still somewhat underfed), I wonder what folks will think next year.

[Stotle]

This will be an interesting year for MB, I think. Folks aren't going to completely discount their prior ranking because of a down-tick in velo. Especially w/ the results still there. On the other hand, if the stuff still hasn't come around (velo still down, secondaries still somewhat underfed), I wonder what folks will think next year.

I wonder what the velo will look like in spring training? I think MB is probably best served at AAA to start the season, as Price did last year. Control his innings and work on refining some things, including maintaining of stuff over the first 4-5 innings. I agree, he'll be an interesting one to watch.

[Lucky Jim]

I wonder what the velo will look like in spring training? I think MB is probably best served at AAA to start the season, as Price did last year. Control his innings and work on refining some things, including maintaining of stuff over the first 4-5 innings. I agree, he'll be an interesting one to watch.

Without a big fastball, is he sort of Ian Kennedy-like?

[Stotle]

Without a big fastball, is he sort of Ian Kennedy-like?

I find it hard to believe the velocity will simply be gone. More likely, I think, would be finding out that he can't maintain that velocity over all the innings required of a starter. In that case, I think he becomes more Billy Wagner than Ian Kennedy (though his breaking ball is obviously behind where Wagner's was at his peak). Maybe Wagner circa 2007 to start with the upside of "peak" Wagner?

[Lucky Jim]

I find it hard to believe the velocity will simply be gone. More likely, I think, would be finding out that he can't maintain that velocity over all the innings required of a starter. In that case, I think he becomes more Billy Wagner than Ian Kennedy (though his breaking ball is obviously behind where Wagner's was at his peak). Maybe Wagner circa 2007 to start with the upside of "peak" Wagner?

Fair enough - I've never watched him pitch. I was under the impression that 2009 saw more of an overall drop in velo (including early in games) than an inability to maintain.

In other words, you're saying maybe he's [edit]LHP[edit] version of Brandon Erbe (+) more than Billy Wagner (-)?

Don't want to disregard the LHP aspect.

[mdterpsrule]

Well, I'd be surprised if BA didn't have him in the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. He was 19 for most of last year and 20 when he made his ML debut in September. His drop in velocity didn't make him less effective. I'd love to have him in my organization, that's for sure.

Oh I'm almost positive he'll be in the top 10 prospects come ranking time, I just found his drop in velocity interesting, especially for an organization that's so "great" at developing stud pitching prospects. Bumgarner is my favorite non O's prospect and I'd love to have him on our team.

[Old#5fan]

That's pretty cool -- at what level? Maybe he has seen Johnson pitch.

He may have. My cousin (pitching coach) lives in Arizona and I haven't seen or talked to him in years. I do see and talk to his younger brother who lives in the Hagerstown area but only at family gatherings. The next time I see him (younger cousin) I will ask him if Steve ever scouted Johnson, as he might know. BTW, my younger cousins is also an O's fan and so is my Uncle (their dad) !

[Stotle]

Fair enough - I've never watched him pitch. I was under the impression that 2009 saw more of an overall drop in velo (including early in games) than an inability to maintain.

In other words, you're saying maybe he's [edit]LHP[edit] version of Brandon Erbe (+) more than Billy Wagner (-)?

Don't want to disregard the LHP aspect.

I was unclear -- sorry, LJ.

1. There was an overall drop in velo as the season wore on -- I think he was generally upper-80s to 90/91 at the ML level in September. This sometimes occurs with young arms -- it could be innings load or fatigue, I'm not a specialist on the physicality involved in drop in velocity. But I know it's not uncommon at the collegiate level, and that's Bumgarner's current age (would be a college junior this year).

2. I think the velocity is still there, but the question will be whether or not it ultimately is there for a full ML load, year-in and year-out. I don't know the answer. Mechanically, he is pretty sound in producing his velocity -- no slap-in-the-forehead reason to think he'd suddenly fall-off.

So I was really just getting at those two issues. First, the fact that the velo drop-off wasn't troubling to me, just one of those things you occasionally see in late-teen pitchers. Second, if there is a question about velo, I think it ultimately turns out to be velo over a full season.

Make sense? I'm particularly rambly today.

[Stotle]

Oh I'm almost positive he'll be in the top 10 prospects come ranking time, I just found his drop in velocity interesting, especially for an organization that's so "great" at developing stud pitching prospects. Bumgarner is my favorite non O's prospect and I'd love to have him on our team.

Yeah, as I stated in my response to Lucky Jim, I think velo drop-offs for periods of time are more frequent at this age than many think. It's just that usually it's happening to a college sophomore, not a ML rookie, so it's hardly in the spotlight unless you're a college ball fan. He'll definitely be an interesting one to watch next year -- one of my favorites, as well. Great scouting by SFN in the '07 draft to get him and Alderson both early on (1:10 and 1:22).

[Lucky Jim]

I was unclear -- sorry, LJ.

1. There was an overall drop in velo as the season wore on -- I think he was generally upper-80s to 90/91 at the ML level in September. This sometimes occurs with young arms -- it could be innings load or fatigue, I'm not a specialist on the physicality involved in drop in velocity. But I know it's not uncommon at the collegiate level, and that's Bumgarner's current age (would be a college junior this year).

2. I think the velocity is still there, but the question will be whether or not it ultimately is there for a full ML load, year-in and year-out. I don't know the answer. Mechanically, he is pretty sound in producing his velocity -- no slap-in-the-forehead reason to think he'd suddenly fall-off.

So I was really just getting at those two issues. First, the fact that the velo drop-off wasn't troubling to me, just one of those things you occasionally see in late-teen pitchers. Second, if there is a question about velo, I think it ultimately turns out to be velo over a full season.

Make sense? I'm particularly rambly today.

No worries. Makes sense to me.

[Mark Carver]

Lest we forget this Giants pitcher...

<img src="http://thediamondangle.com/archive/sep03/giants/43b_big.jpg">

[hobbycars]

Steve Johnson was acquired by the Giants in the Rule 5 Draft.

Steve Johnson should not be anything to lose sleep over, but it was bad roster management. No reason we protected guys like Hughes, Tatum or Bass ahead of him. If we are truly growing the arms, this move made no sense IMO.

[birdman57]

Steve Johnson was acquired by the Giants in the Rule 5 Draft.

My take is Johnson was simply a throw-in with Bell and his chances of being a serious MLB pitcher are marginal at best:)

[Old#5fan]

My take is Johnson was simply a throw-in with Bell and his chances of being a serious MLB pitcher are marginal at best:)

Right which explains why the Giants wanted him so badly. Oh yeah, that makes a lot of sense!:scratchchinhmm:

[mdterpsrule]

Right which explains why the Giants wanted him so badly. Oh yeah, that makes a lot of sense!:scratchchinhmm:

You say this as if every rule 5 draft pick that a good team wanted badly was successful. Do you remember Luis Perdomo? I'm sure you don't. He was the pitcher the giants scouted heavily last year, selected in the 2008 rule 5 draft, and was the designated for assignment 6 days into the season. He was claimed by the Padres. So please explain how Steve Johnson isn't another Luis Perdomo.