A disturbing trend in the FO

[Sapper]

This theme is starting to get REALLY old for me: Holding onto players too long instead of trading for valuable young players.

Guys I SURELY would have traded a long time ago when their value was high:

Mora

Lopez

Lopez

Ryan

Tejada

others I may have traded last year while their value was high (and if you can search that far back here, you'll see I suggested trading these guys last year):

Roberts

Bedard

This team will never get better unless we start taking advantage of other teams' farm systems in addition to our own. Let them get Glenn Davis'ed for a change.

[The Rick]

Why trade BRob or Bedard? What's the point of a youth movement, if you're not going to keep your two young stars? I know they're not extremely young, but both are cheap and young at the moment.

I agree though in that we should have traded all the other players you mentioned. BJ Ryan is the biggest blooper, but that's been discussed enough as we all know.

[orioles119]

Let's trade the whole damn team then!

[delaware bird]

Had you of traded away those players, the Baltimore Orioles would be a mediocre triple A team.

Further, no free agent in his right mind would sign with the Orioles, with the knowledge that you'd trade him in a blink if the wind shifts directions.

[billyc123]

Let's trade the whole damn team then!

Yea, why not throw Gibbons in there after he knocked in 100 a couple years back? Should we be looking to trade CPatt now? What about Markakis? If he gets hot, maybe we could get someone half his age....

Who do we build around under this trade 'em all philosophy?

[Sapper]

Why trade BRob or Bedard? What's the point of a youth movement, if you're not going to keep your two young stars? I know they're not extremely young, but both are cheap and young at the moment.

I agree though in that we should have traded all the other players you mentioned. BJ Ryan is the biggest blooper, but that's been discussed enough as we all know.

I'm saying I considered the idea of trading them last spring/summer, when their value was sky high.

You have to make a calculated decision at that point when you're NOT a contender and you have overachieving players to take offers for them from real contenders and hope you fleece them. That's part of how rebuilding works.

[mikezpen]

Agree, but only to a point.You have to know whan to unload veterans you either don't need now or won't need before too long. However, that list includes some people who could be on a contending Orioles team if the Front Office would do something.

[Sapper]

Can you be more specific on when you would have traded Javy? Last year was only his second year with the club and there wasn't much interest in him. Would you have traded him after his first year? Would you have traded Bedard after last spring, just before his knee injury? Would you have traded Roberts just before he broke his arm?

Javy, I would have traded last offseason.

I suggested trading Bedard before his knee injury last year -- if you could pull up the archives that far, I could document it for you.

And yes, I suggested trading Roberts before he broke his arm too, I think.

The general trend though, is it is becoming obvious that the Orioles don't know how to sell high as part of selling high and buying low.

[Sapper]

So then your philosophy is that every time an Oriole player goes on a hot streak, try to trade them? So we should be trying to deal Bedard right now. Right? Also, we should be looking to deal Ramon Hernandez and CPat, all players who are playing better than expected. Right?

No its a simple calculation of Value vs. Potential.

When Value > Potential, take trade offers seriously.

I don't think CPat's value is necessarily greater than his potential.

Last May, Bedard's and Robert's value far exceeded their potential to keep producing at that level.

I don't know what part of all this is that complicated for people to understand.

[Sapper]

They bought CPat & Benson low. I'm not a FO apologist but let's keep it balanced. Don't you think maybe that keeping Bedard is looking pretty good right now.....

You'll notice, I specifically did not say they couldn't buy low. I said they can't sell high.

[NewMarketSean]

I agree, Sapper. I only hope something changes this year and they are able to move both Lopez's and maybe a few players who aren't at their highest value like Conine, Millar and Chen.

Good post.

[osfan83]

This theme is starting to get REALLY old for me: Holding onto players too long instead of trading for valuable young players.

Guys I SURELY would have traded a long time ago when their value was high:

Mora

Lopez

Lopez

Ryan

Tejada

others I may have traded last year while their value was high (and if you can search that far back here, you'll see I suggested trading these guys last year):

Roberts

Bedard

This team will never get better unless we start taking advantage of other teams' farm systems in addition to our own. Let them get Glenn Davis'ed for a change.

Mora: I wanted him signed because I thought we might be able to contend for a WC spot in '07. Now I think that might have been a mistake.

Lopez and Lopez: I'm with you.

Ryan: We can stop bringing that mistake up now.

Tejada: Looks like contending might not happen until '08 or '09. so let move him.

Roberts: He is young cheap talent. He should be here in '08 and '09.

Bedard: better stay consistant. If he is just average over the second half of the season, then move him.

[The Rick]

Last May, Bedard's and Robert's value far exceeded their potential to keep producing at that level.

I don't know what part of all this is that complicated for people to understand.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Sure BRob isn't going to jack 20 homers every year, but he's a great 2B, defensively and offensively, and a great lead off man. He came up through the system, so he could give us a slight home city discount come contract time. Bedard has showed this June and so far in July that that he can produce at the level he did in May. I think you gotta keep Bedard and Roberts. I may be over estimating their potential slightly, but they're going to be above average producers in the league for the next 5-7 years. Bedard is the only question mark, because he fell apart 2nd half of last year after he came back from the injury, but his new change up gives me confidence in him.

[Flosman]

Actually Sapper is proposing a plan that will prevent him from ever having to admit that the team is getting better. You don't trade anyone unless your are 1) making the team better 2) getting equal or better value in return. This is true no matter what. Value is determined by what it does for the team today and in the future. With soon to be FAs you have to wiegh in the value of the compensation picks.

[Sapper]

Then I guess you aren't buying into the recent outings we've seen from Bedard which suggest he might be even better than he looked last spring. The complicated part is having a crystal ball which tells you when the value exceeds the potential. Can I borrow yours?

Oh, I totally agree. That's why Bedard and Roberts were on the bottom of the list. Their potential is a lot cloudier than a Mora or a Javy.