Who is the "safest" pick in the draft?

[Sports Guy]

Of all the guys talked about, who is the one player out there that is the most likely to be a ML contributor...and let's put Machado, Taillon and Harper out of this discussion for now.

[Greg Pappas]

FWIW, Christian Colon.

[Sports Guy]

FWIW, Christian Colon.

Does this mean you think he should be, at the very least, a league average second baseman?

[RVAbird]

Probably Colon or Cox. I think I'll go with Colon.

This. Colon is going to play up the middle defense, so I feel confident that he'll stick as a regular. He can either be an average second baseman or an above average shortstop, depending on how his range holds up.

Cox has a better bat, but he'll be at 3rd with less than stellar power. Still, his hit tool makes him almost as safe as they come. I can see him being Nick Markakis with less discipline at a more premium position.

They should both be ML regulars in 2-3 years. Neither has an elite ceiling, but I like Cox the 3B man better than Colon the 2B man.

As far as pitchers go, Deck McGuire and Drew Pomeranz are pretty safe bets to be mid to back of the rotation starters. I don't see either as a No. 1-2, but they should move quickly and hold their own in the big leagues within a few years.

Injury concerns prevent Ranuado from being a safe bet.

[Greg Pappas]

Does this mean you think he should be, at the very least, a league average second baseman?

Defensively, I believe he can not only stick at short, but be above-average. At worst, he'll be a very good 2B'man. Offensively, he'll be above average.

[RVAbird]

Defensively, I believe he can not only stick at short, but be above-average. At worst, he'll be a very good 2B'man. Offensively, he'll be above average.

If I'm Jordan and I feel the same way you do about Colon's defense, he'd probably be my pick over Machado.

[Sports Guy]

If I'm Jordan and I feel the same way you do about Colon's defense, he'd probably be my pick over Machado.

Absolutely.

If you feel Colon is an above average defensive SS, then he has to be the pick IMO.

I think Machado has great upside but I don;t believe we can get it out of him and that is an awful lot of money to pay to see if it can happen.

I would want Machado more had they taken Green last year instead of Hobgood.

I feel Taillon or Harper would be too talented to pass up but beyond them, I would want more of a sure thing with this pick..the Orioles must hit on their top 5 picks.

[QBsILLEST1]

IMO Alex Wimmers is a safer arm than either McGuire OR Pomeranz.

[Stotle]

Are you saying of the potential 1st Rounders? If so, Colon's approach puts him slightly ahead of any of the other hitters. He plays a more valuable position, but I haven't seen plus arm strength (plus accuracy, though). I think he can handle short, but he won't be the type of shortstop that can plant deep in the hole and fire a rope. He'll make the routine plays, and he'll get to a fair number of balls because of his reads. He just doesn't have enough carry on his throws -- they dive -- and he also can drop his arm slot which puts a loopy action to the flight path.

Wimmers is a pretty safe pick. Micah Gibbs is pretty safe. Ruffin and Chapman should be solid pretty quickly. I wouldn't call Cox safe, but if you are a believer in his hands you see potential plus hit and average to tick above power.

[Sports Guy]

Are you saying of the potential 1st Rounders? If so, Colon's approach puts him slightly ahead of any of the other hitters. He plays a more valuable position, but I haven't seen plus arm strength (plus accuracy, though). I think he can handle short, but he won't be the type of shortstop that can plant deep in the hole and fire a rope. He'll make the routine plays, and he'll get to a fair number of balls because of his reads. He just doesn't have enough carry on his throws -- they dive -- and he also can drop his arm slot which puts a loopy action to the flight path.

Wimmers is a pretty safe pick. Micah Gibbs is pretty safe. Ruffin and Chapman should be solid pretty quickly. I wouldn't call Cox safe, but if you are a believer in his hands you see potential plus hit and average to tick above power.

Yes.......

[EL_Coyote]

Is "Safe" the direction you really want to go? The team isn't going to ever get better with ordinary talent. Especially when it's looking at another top 5 pick next year.

[Sports Guy]

Is "Safe" the direction you really want to go? The team isn't going to ever get better with ordinary talent. Especially when it's looking at another top 5 pick next year.

If Taillon is gone, then yes that is the way i want to go.

I would prefer machado if we didn't take Hobgood last year.

But the bottom line is the Orioles MUST do well with their top picks...It is essential for this team to succeed for them to get production out of their top picks and the Orioles are poor at developing.

[Stotle]

Is "Safe" the direction you really want to go? The team isn't going to ever get better with ordinary talent. Especially when it's looking at another top 5 pick next year.

Gotta agree, though "safe" is a bad categorical word without some sort of context. It can mean anything.

[Sports Guy]

Gotta agree, though "safe" is a bad categorical word without some sort of context. It can mean anything.

Well, safe isn't me saying take a guy that should be a good reliever.

I am still talking about a guy that isn't some reach at #3....Colon seems to represent that.

[Arthur_Bryant]

To put all this in perspective: last August, most of us here would've been very happy to get Colon, and he has done nothing this year to provoke a re-evaluation of his ceiling or projection.

His status slipped a bit early this spring because of the injury, but for the past seven or eight weeks his production has been everything one could hope to find in a prospective high first-round pick.

If Taillon goes to the Pirates, I would have no problem with Colon, and I suspect that Jordan may feel the same way.