Trent Mummey off to a great start

[allstar1579]

Offensive is in the eye of the beholder. I'm not sure what you consider offensive or cavalier. Seems to me, that you just don't like to be questioned or called out for anything you have to say. A followup question is a definite no no with you. You're a smart guy. So are lot's of other people on the board (not me). I seem to gravitate to a lot of your posts. Believe me, my intent is not to rile you up.

Let's face it. As much as you want to downplay your expertise as a "scout" you are very opinionated and come across as an expert. When talking about Jordan or Oriole drafts, you often say stuff like "I would have done this" or "that's not what I would have done" and more stuff like that. So yeah, you always throw the caveat of "I'm not saying I'm better than Jordan" but you awlays come off like "you know more than Jordan". So when you and others are so high on Boston's draft (and Boston in general), and let's say lukewarm on the Orioles's draft, I think it's interesting to review comments on Mummey verses Brentz. You said after the draft that you see Mummey as eventually being a single digit homerun guy. That's interesting. Any possible revision on that one?

See now that's just the type of question that riles you up because you think it's something personal, I guess.

In the end, it's really you who gets personal in your rebuttals to me. I just ask questions about baseball and your opinions on that subject. The personal adjectives all start with you.

Don't take his "I would have done this" as a I know more kinda thing. I do the same stuff all the time, it's more of a "he is more than capable to make his own decision, but my personal preference would have been this" but really, saying all that would just take too long to type when you are trying to make a point

I actually happen to agree with him on this one, BOS did kill us in the draft not only this year, but for the last 6 years I think (even though this year was the first under a new scouting director). The Brentz v Mummey should be interesting to follow, but I'm willing to bet if you ask 10 scouts who they would have taken at draft time 10 of them would have said Brentz. I still think Mummey ends up a single digit guy. He's a college guy playing short season ball, he could be advanced for the level. A better comparison might come in Salisbury.

Back to the nature of the draft, you never know when you'll get a guy that ends up being way better than he looks out of school, and you never know when you'll get a guy that looks great and falls on his face. It's way too early to completely decide one way or the other, but Brentz reminded me a lot of Reimold or Burnitz, and Mummey to me was more of an Aaron Rowand to me. In the same nature if we wanna compare O's to Sox in the draft, we could compare Klein to Workman, or maybe go back a couple years and try to match picks in near rounds.

[hoosiers]

Mummey is 90 PAs or so into the season and has 8 BBs, 8 Ks and 12 xbhs.

Not sure if Aberdeen or DelMarva are playoff candidates, but these are promotion-worthy numbers, IMO.

[allstar1579]

Mummey is 90 PAs or so into the season and has 8 BBs, 8 Ks and 12 xbhs.

Not sure if Aberdeen or DelMarva are playoff candidates, but these are promotion-worthy numbers, IMO.

Completely agree. He's shown that he was too advanced for this level, so why wouldn't you get him some time in Delmarva and see how he stacks up at that level. Might give you a better indication of if he should start next season in Delmarva or Frederick.

[Stotle]

Offensive is in the eye of the beholder. I'm not sure what you consider offensive or cavalier. Seems to me, that you just don't like to be questioned or called out for anything you have to say. A followup question is a definite no no with you. You're a smart guy. So are lot's of other people on the board (not me). I seem to gravitate to a lot of your posts. Believe me, my intent is not to rile you up.

Let's face it. As much as you want to downplay your expertise as a "scout" you are very opinionated and come across as an expert. When talking about Jordan or Oriole drafts, you often say stuff like "I would have done this" or "that's not what I would have done" and more stuff like that. So yeah, you always throw the caveat of "I'm not saying I'm better than Jordan" but you awlays come off like "you know more than Jordan". So when you and others are so high on Boston's draft (and Boston in general), and let's say lukewarm on the Orioles's draft, I think it's interesting to review comments on Mummey verses Brentz. You said after the draft that you see Mummey as eventually being a single digit homerun guy. That's interesting. Any possible revision on that one?

See now that's just the type of question that riles you up because you think it's something personal, I guess.

In the end, it's really you who gets personal in your rebuttals to me. I just ask questions about baseball and your opinions on that subject. The personal adjectives all start with you.

I apologize for escalating our back-and-forth. I think if you are honest you'll admit that you were being quite confrontational (intent) with your original question and your responses were glib (claiming out of the blue that the comp difference was because of drafting team, for example). Rather than addressing the merits of my responses as to why I viewed Mummey/Brentz differently, you just restated my original post and again restated why I was hypocritical for stating it.

It seems to me that you really weren't interested in discussing Brentz and Mummey, but rather were interested in trying to show that I have a bias against Jordan and the Orioles, and an unsupportable one at that. Perhaps I am mistaken, but after re-reading our exchange it still seems to me like you really didn't have any interest in progressing the discussion about Brentz. Now, I take you at your word that your intention is not to rile me up, but I just see you clinging to my original post rather than moving the discussion in the direction of what could be an interesting Brentz/Mummey comp, particularly if we get into draft round, risk profile, projection, ceiling, etc., and even more so if we get complex and talk about rounding out the construction of a draft class and measuring investment vs. probability/ceiling and all that good stuff.

I do consider myself more knowledgeable about amateur baseball, the draft, and some aspects of scouting than whatever would be considered the "typical" fan or the casual follower of the draft. I also put in a lot of time and effort to continue to learn and get better. When I question certain things that BAL does, it's much more in the spirit of debating a professor in law school or a boss/partner at the office with regards to a business strategy, the details of a transaction, etc. I know my place on the food chain is well below someone like Jordan. But part of growing is not being afraid to stick your neck out and challenge the status quo -- throw out different ideas and see if you can figure out something that other people haven't yet.

I started doing shadow drafts not to prove I'm better, but rather to test my abilities and to give myself something to self-grade. I look back at 2008 and have learned to try and be a little more certain of overslot HS kids if you are spending an early round on them. 2008 and 2009 both have told me to try and find more balance in other areas if I'm going to spend an early pick or two on a high-strikeout power bat. This year I can already tell that college picks in the teens should maybe be a little more skewed to senior signs and kids that aren't as academically focused (as those juniors are much more likely to return for a senior year).

I was speaking with a 2nd year associate scout at the USA Collegiate National Team Trials about some national media guys that cover/scout, some of the newer up-and-coming blogger types, etc. and we both agreed that even the worst ML Scout with 10 years of experience is going to have some pretty great knowledge that only comes from watching a lot and gaining experience, while even the best amateur/newcomer in his first couple years is going to have a whole lot to learn before he can consider himself an expert or start tearing down what others do. What I write here is a mental exercise and me trying to learn by having discussions about varying approaches. Nothing more.

And, no, I would not change my assessment of Mummey based upon 100 ABs at short-season A ball. My assessment was as of draft day, based on watching him play several times throughout the year. I may be wrong about several things and I may get several things right. But I have to stay true to my take or I'm merely a reactionary and not a prognosticator. That question does not rile me up, though at some point I'd appreciate you hearing me say the above (about not changing my opinion after a half season) and stop asking me if I want to change my mind whenever you see the current trend is different than I projected.

[PBR Street Gang]

...Back to the nature of the draft, you never know when you'll get a guy that ends up being way better than he looks out of school, and you never know when you'll get a guy that looks great and falls on his face....

Isn't that what "scouting" is all about? To eliminate the oops' and dig for the diamonds in the rough? To find guys who will actually (and I really mean actually) project to something other than an organizational filler?

[Sports Guy]

Am I the only one on Orioles Hangout who found SportsGuy's response hilarious? Not saying it's true or not true. Just hilarious for him to be commenting.

It is funny...but it doesn't make it less true. That's exactly what you are, as I told you last week.

[allstar1579]

Isn't that what "scouting" is all about? To eliminate the oops' and dig for the diamonds in the rough? To find guys who will actually (and I really mean actually) project to something other than an organizational filler?

Doesn't matter how much scouting you do. Some guys will succeed and some will fail for unpredictable reasons and sometimes no reason at all. The only way to be 100% right scouting is to hop in a time machine and hit 88mph back a couple years to draft them.

You will increase your odds the better your scouting is, but what I was saying is even the BEST scouting team in baseball is going to have some that hit and some that miss.

[Sports Guy]

He is pretty cavalier about making his points in an offensive manner.

That's what Stotle said. Those words aren't even in your vocabalary. You probably said "stupid and clueless", which are probably more insulting but have a different meaning, just in case you didn't know.

The fact that you would call someone else cavalier and offensive is BEYOND IRONIC!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, this is a thread about Trent Mummey, a sujbect which you know less than nothing about. Why don't you go over the the Orioles section where we can take the "less than" out of the phrase? LOL

Thanks for proving my point...Pathetic.

[Sports Guy]

No problem. Are you willing to admit that you are probably the most offensive person on this board?

Oh, I admit that to certain posters, I am way over the top...But the thing, there are posters such as yourself that don't deserve MY respect. El Gordo is the same way. Just in constant classless jerk mode and I allow that that bring the same thing out of me. I mean, El Gordo was that way to Greg it appears...Gregg Pappas is probably the nicest person on this site and to be a jerk towards him, for no reason, is pathetic.

The problem with posting on a message board is that you really don't know or understand tone. There is a lot of times where tone can be misunderstood on here...and I mean that from everyone.

But then there are times, such as when you usually post, where the tone is obvious. Its just who you are. I imagine its how you in real life too. I can be that way too in person but I have also won customer service awards, built up a strong business through relationships and things like that. I have my doubts that you could pull that off but maybe I am wrong.

Either way, it doesn't matter...I really should just put you on ignore. Stotle made his point about you and it was dead on accurate. Instead of apologizing for it, admitting or whatever, you decide to attack me because I agreed with him. Well, that's fine...Its not that I blame you for not sticking up for yourself but you are still coming across exactly how I Stotle and myself see you.

[allstar1579]

No doubt that Brentz was a consensus better talent than Mummey. I'm not debating that. I'm saying that it looks like Jordan made a real nice pick in the 4th round. With 12 extra base hits in his first 26 hits, I'm willing to bet that the single digit homerun projections are unreasonably low. The guy hit something like 17 homers in something like 35 games in college this season. It would be easy to discount that totally if not for seeing a pretty good swing on video and his start at Aberdeen. The guy has power. I'm not projecting annual 20+ homerun power. I'm just stating my opinion that he looks to have more than you and Stotle are saying. A simple difference of opinion.

Comparing Boston to us isn't an apples to apples comparison. It's been shown that they have gotten a lot more picks than us. They've certainly spent a lot more than us internationally up to this point. Their margin for error is much greater than ours. Do I wish we had the money and strategy of the Red Sox? Sure. Do I feel there talent evaluators in the draft are much better than ours? Not so sure about that. They've had lots of misses as well and almost all of their top 5 top prospects are having very disappointing seasons this year.

Last but not least, this thing with Stotle. Let's face it. He's like the draft expert on the site. He does a great job with that stuff and providing information. I enjoy reading his stuff. He is very opinionated and I feel that being questioned about those opnions comes with the territory. If I see something that I feel is inconsistent, I'm going to question him on it. He seems to feel like that's a personal attack. I don't feel that way. He keeps saying that I didn't respond to the substance of his opinion on Brentz verses Mummey. I didn't see the need but I'll take a shot. He says that Brentz was a lot more proven with wood bats than Mummey. However, it's Mummey who's adjusted to pro ball and wood bats much better than Brentz to this point. Brentz may very well turn it around this season or next and fulfill his promise. But the point was that Brentz has a .473 OPS and 30 strikeouts in 96 AB's. Stotle first said he wasn't concerned and then later shifted to "it's not a disaster". How could anyone say they weren't concerned to a poor start like that? Nothing wrong with sticking to your gut feeling and your own talent evaluations but I do think it's disingenuous to say you aren't a little concerned over that start. Weren't we all concerned lat year with the season Tyler Townsend was having at Aberdeen?

@ Mummey, I think he's having a great start, but I don't even begin to look to see if a guy was a good pick or not until after their first full season. Anything before that is way too early to start feeling good or bad about a pick. Now Rowell, that was a bad pick. He could just be teeing off on kids because he's too advanced for the league, or maybe pitching talent on other teams hasn't signed yet that would make it more fair. I'm not saying he's a bad pick or anything, I just don't change opinions on draft picks until Frederick.

@ BOS comparison, it can be apples to apples, it's a matter of what you look at. If you say the number of draft picks it's not, but we aren't looking at that, we are looking at the quality of picks they are making. There is NOTHING stopping us from taking the same players (especially considering we pick before them every year). Vitek looks like he might be a really good value pick late in the first, Workman if he signs should be a real good one, Brentz and Renaudo could have gone in the top 15. BOS is outspending us in FA, in trades (since they have more to move without giving up the next 10 years) and in the draft. If you let a team do that in all 3 areas of player acquisition of course they are going to be better than you. This is going on 10 years they have been this good now.

@ the Stotle thing...I'm gonna stay out of that. But like I said, I don't change opinions of guys until they have gotten some good full year time under their belt, and I feel like college picks should start full year in Frederick and HS guys should get an extra year of instruction, so I reevaluate at that point. That's just me though. I mean we all know Erbe is a better pitcher than he has been this year, and people were trying to send him down without a cause. I wouldn't say oh, yeah Erbe is a bust now, he couldn't handle AAA so that's as good as he's gonna be. Know what I mean?

[Sports Guy]

Don't forget to add RShack and about 50 other people on the board who don't deserve your respect. You have two modes. Offensive and kiss ass. The second one got you your awards. I can see that.

This board has taught me a lot about baseball. Guys like 1970, Tony and Stotle(to name a few) have all my respect in the world.

You aren't always going to get along with everyone...its just how it is.

Many of the people on here that different people have friction with, would probably be people you would enjoy having a beer with and talking baseball, after all, that is why we are all here.

However, there are some that you just will never like in any setting. That's life, its how it is.

[allstar1579]

Look at what your'e saying. We could have only picked one of those guys this year. All were gone before our third round pick. We could have picked one of those guys and not gotten Machado. So yeah, there was something stopping us from picking those guys. Boston is one of the weathiest teams in baseball. I think they have the 2nd or 3rd (not sure of the Mets) highest payroll annually in baseball. We can say it's the Orioles own fault that they aren't as profitable as the Red Sox but they aren't. I don't know about the quality of prospect Boston took until, like you said, a few years down the road.

Yeah I know it's hard to look at this year, just first impression I can say they killed us, but I could end up being wrong later. I'm looking back at like 2005-2007 and they were KILLING us then too. You're right we couldn't get all 4 of the guys they took at the top, but if we hadn't made a stupid (by stupid I mean signing someone we had to give up a 2nd rounder for when there were other options out there) signing in the offseason. We could have taken Workman at least, or AJ Cole for that matter.

Go back a few years, BOS has drafted very very well, they could afford to trade Hanley for Beckett because they had so much talent coming they could make up for it. They even took a shot on signing Alvarez, Laporta and Grandal, if they had ponied up a little more money on those guys can you even IMAGINE?

To speak to what we could do differently, we could have taken those guys as well, and overspent to make sure they signed, we'd be a much different team with the 3 of them on board wouldn't we? There is no rule to stop us from doing it, we just aren't. If you are a young team with such a big talent gap from the big money teams you need to add talent whatever way you can, and the only way we can is through signing int'ls and drafting more high end talent. Jury is still out on last year, it could be a good year, but then I feel like they took a step backwards this year (at first glance of course, we'll see).

[allstar1579]

Are those great drafts?

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=bos&year=2005

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=bos&year=2006

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=bos&year=2007

In 2005 they got Buchkholz and Ellsbury. Excellent draft

In 2006 they got Bard & Masterson. Good

In 2007 they got no one of note yet. The prospects that come to mind are Rizzo and Nick Hagadone.

In 2005 we got Snyder, Reimold, Olson, Erbe, and Spoone. (Disappointing draft to this point)

In 2006 we got Zack Britton and Jason Berken. Still waiting on Henson and Adams.

In 2007 we got Wieters and Arrieta.

They clearly have us in 2005 almost entirely because of Buckholz.

2006 is not a huge edge to the Red Sox and might end up a draw or better.

2007 has to go to the Orioles to this point.

We could argue minor league prospects drafted those years and go on forever but I don't think you'll find as huge an edge as "they killed us from 2005 thru 2007".

We can praise their minor league system and internation department all we want. The Red Sox are where they are because they can fill in a lot of spots with free agents. J.D. Drew, Scutaro, Beltre, Cameron, Lackey, Matsuzaka, and can afford a 140-150 million payroll. Let's not kid ourselves. They are smart in taking advantage of the system but the reason they can take advantage of the system is MONEY.

You can't say they didn't kill us in drafting because you choose to ignore the star players they didn't sign, they still drafted them. Drafting and scouting is separate from signing, that is the identification of talent, and catching those guys before they are stars is impressive. You left off guys in that range like Reddick, Kalish and Andersen in 06 so yeah, that year they also killed us, Kelly and Westmoreland in 08, 07 looks like their weakest year, but they drafted Grandal that year too. And didn't you make the point that they get advantages by having more picks? We could have really made up some ground in 07 if we had picks in the 2nd or 3rd.

They aren't outspending us by THAT much in the draft, but they are, and they are doing it wisely. Don't forget guys like Lowrie, Pedroia, Shoppach, Papelbon and Lester who they drafted all of and are/were keys to the team you see now. You have to ask the question at some point, why are they identifying all of this talent and we aren't?

[allstar1579]

If they weren't smart enough to overpay and sign Alvarez, I'm giving them no credit for drafting him. Other teams, may have had Alvarez rated just as high as the Red Sox and realized they couldn't/wouldn't sign him. The Orioles drafted Tanner Scheppers, I believe. I'm not giving them credit for that. Bottom line, they didn't sign him. If the Orioles should draft a lot of kids that are highly rated and considered tough signs, and wind up not signing them, do we give them credit for identifying talent or blame for wasting a pick?

The Red Sox are not outspending us by much in the draft. Since they sign more FA's and thereby let more FA's walk again, they use the system to get more picks. They kill us in internation signings (MONEY) but what have they got to show for it?

Reddick and Anderson are pretty big disappointments this year. Kalish is having a pretty good season. Still, it's tough to say until they get to the majors. Heck, I didn't make a big thing of 2005. The story is still untold on Reimold and Snyder. In 2006 we have Ryan Adams and Tyler Henson. There is no evidence that we got killed by the Red Sox in the 2006 draft as of yet. If Kalish and Anderson become solid ML players, maybe I'll give a significant edge to the Sox.

If you look at the top ten picks from those years you'll see what you see from most teams. A lot of complete misses in the first 10 rounds.

I know you've taken a postion and you won't budge from it, but the evidence, to this point, does not show that the Red Sox "killed" us in the draft from 05-07.

You're right, I have my position, and I won't move, just like I'd expect you not to budge from yours, but you have to remember we are also arguing opinions here. Neither one of us can point to any facts to show the other is wrong, it's just a question of how much you value their prospects versus ours, and how much credit you give them for identifying top HS talent that is college bound.

I give the O's all the credit in the world for taking a shot at Scheppers, there is no real way to know if ANY of these kids will sign, some might have a more solid college offer than others, but 99% of them put out the impression that they are strongly interested in college as a negotiating point, they are costing themselves money by not doing so right? But if you look at all the late shots the O's have taken versus say the Yankees and Red Sox (and I'm sure some of the signing has to do with the respect these franchises have right now being contenders), we are on the short end of the stick.

You call them wasted picks, but how many of those late picks do you see panning out? Most of them after the teens especially are minor league filler anyway. We have a habit (as a website community) here of overvaluing our players, and deeming some prospects that really aren't. Now, I'm not saying some of these guys might make improvements and reach the show through hard work and dedication, I was also a huge fan of Howie Clark, BUT that's not going to happen often. I guess it's just philosophy that dictates if it's more effective to use a late pick to build a relationship with a talented player and take a shot at signing them (a la Brady) or to take more minor league filler with it and cross your fingers that they hit their ceiling.

The situations with those guys that got away were more like Brady, where we thought we had a shot through the summer even, and then in the end came up a bit short. You didn't see people crying around here "oh why oh why did we waste a pick on a guy that wouldn't sign" when we took him. We just need to do more of that. I've made the argument that we should have taken that same shot on Wahl this year.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Oh, I admit that to certain posters, I am way over the top...But the thing, there are posters such as yourself that don't deserve MY respect. El Gordo is the same way. Just in constant classless jerk mode and I allow that that bring the same thing out of me. I mean, El Gordo was that way to Greg it appears...Gregg Pappas is probably the nicest person on this site and to be a jerk towards him, for no reason, is pathetic.

The problem with posting on a message board is that you really don't know or understand tone. There is a lot of times where tone can be misunderstood on here...and I mean that from everyone.

But then there are times, such as when you usually post, where the tone is obvious. Its just who you are. I imagine its how you in real life too. I can be that way too in person but I have also won customer service awards, built up a strong business through relationships and things like that. I have my doubts that you could pull that off but maybe I am wrong.

Either way, it doesn't matter...I really should just put you on ignore. Stotle made his point about you and it was dead on accurate. Instead of apologizing for it, admitting or whatever, you decide to attack me because I agreed with him. Well, that's fine...Its not that I blame you for not sticking up for yourself but you are still coming across exactly how I Stotle and myself see you.

Maybe you could just try being kind???:eektf:

Trent Mummey is so wonderful:)

I am really looking forward to seeing him play again!!!:clap3: