Bergy discussions - Can we count on him now that he's a year out from his injury?

[Frobby]

The pitchers who are able to win without their best stuff are not the ones with superior stuff (see Cabrera, Daniel) but the ones who are able to adapt and out-think their opponents, who have superior command of multiple pitches (excellent command of a below quality pitch is better than poor command of a plus pitch IMHO) and the guys who simply have the greatest will to battle until they win. Bergesen is exactly the kind of player I expect to be able to pitch an 8 inning, 4 run game where he struggles, but keeps battling and allows the team to have a shot at winning even without his best stuff.

I think this is a pretty good point, with the proviso that on days when Bergy doesn't have good command, he's obviously quite vulnerable. He's had 7-8 starts this year that demonstrate just how vulnerable he can be.

[DrungoHazewood]

This. Nicely put.

Personally I think a career 4.50 ERA for Bergesen is the worst case, not the best or median case. I think the best case is that he becomes another Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay or Gregg Maddux - all guys who have become better and better with age and experience because they were able to parlay exceptional command into consistently dominant performance.

I see his best case as being a 2.50 - 3.00 ERA guy who approaches 240 - 250 IPs each season and becomes a true TOR stopper.

The problem with those comps is that they all strike out a lot more batters than Bergesen. A lot. Bergesen strikes out just about as few batters as any pitcher in modern baseball can and still succeed. The only way to average 4 K/9 and win is to have a killer G/F ratio. That's what makes Bergesen a guy who'll have a hard time being consistently a top-level performer: too many balls in play, too much reliance on defense.

Bergesen is out of the Chien-Ming Wang mold. And we saw what happened to both of these guys when they're just not quite right - they get absolutely shelled. If Bergesen's G/F ratio isn't great, he's a BP pitcher. He just doesn't get anyone to swing and miss.

[Mackus]

We've had this discussion before. I don't know what a pitcher without a slim margin for error looks like. Every pitcher has a slim margin for error, not just Bergesen.

And last year, he was effective over a very long stretch of games when he often "didn't have his best stuff". The pitchers who are able to win without their best stuff are not the ones with superior stuff (see Cabrera, Daniel) but the ones who are able to adapt and out-think their opponents, who have superior command of multiple pitches (excellent command of a below quality pitch is better than poor command of a plus pitch IMHO) and the guys who simply have the greatest will to battle until they win. Bergesen is exactly the kind of player I expect to be able to pitch an 8 inning, 4 run game where he struggles, but keeps battling and allows the team to have a shot at winning even without his best stuff.

I disagree with almost all of this.

Not many pitchers walk the tightrope that Bergy does. He has a far less margin for error than nearly all other pitchers in baseball, simply because he almost never gets swings and misses. His stuff doesn't fool anyone. And I don't think there were very many starts during his 12-start stretch last year where he didn't have sharp command and have his sinker actually sinking. Bergesen has mediocre stuff. He gets by on location and the sink on his fastball. Only his slider is really ever a plus pitch, and that's only at times. He's got to have that command and the sink working on his two-seamer to have success. He's not a guy like Matusz who can get by even when he doesn't have good command. And that's why I think its ridiculous to see him having 2.50 ERA over 240 inning type of upside.

I'd be thrilled if he could do that, but I just don't see it. I'd be happy with him as a 4.50 ERA, 200 IP guy. I don't think that even that level is a given, but I do think that's where he will probably settle in to.

[Frobby]

I disagree with almost all of this.

Not many pitchers walk the tightrope that Bergy does. He has a far less margin for error than nearly all other pitchers in baseball, simply because he almost never gets swings and misses. His stuff doesn't fool anyone. And I don't think there were very many starts during his 12-start stretch last year where he didn't have sharp command and have his sinker actually sinking. Bergesen has mediocre stuff. He gets by on location and the sink on his fastball. Only his slider is really ever a plus pitch, and that's only at times. He's got to have that command and the sink working on his two-seamer to have success. He's not a guy like Matusz who can get by even when he doesn't have good command. And that's why I think its ridiculous to see him having 2.50 ERA over 240 inning type of upside.

I'd be thrilled if he could do that, but I just don't see it. I'd be happy with him as a 4.50 ERA, 200 IP guy. I don't think that even that level is a given, but I do think that's where he will probably settle in to.

Bluedog has always loved Bergy. I remember the Halladay comparisons from last year. I agree with you, I don't see it. But I'm a little more optimistic than you about how frequently Bergy will have good command of his stuff. I think he can be one of those guys who is more or less on his game 75% of the time, and gets shelled the other 25%.