Bergy discussions - Can we count on him now that he's a year out from his injury?

[AgentOrange]

[/b]

I was waiting for someone to mention this...lets wait until he finishes a couple 2-3 starts to really judge if he's turned the corner.

He has pitched 3 great games in a row to the tune of a 1.17 ERA over that span.

How many more would you like to see?

[McLovin]

He has pitched 3 great games in a row to the tune of a 1.17 ERA over that span.

How many more would you like to see?

Bergesen has allowed only 4 runs in his last 23 innings (with KC and CLE accounting for 16 of those innings). And his ERA is STILL 5.84. So yeah, a few more starts before I'm 'counting on him'.

[Frobby]

He has pitched 3 great games in a row to the tune of a 1.17 ERA over that span.

How many more would you like to see?

An infinite number!

In all seriousness, Bergy had a pretty good 3-game stretch in May where he threw 21 innings to a 1.71 ERA, but then the wheels fell off the cart again. If he can stay healthy and pitch well, he's got 9 starts left to make this season. I'd like to see him throw 58+ innings in those 9 starts, to an ERA of 4.50 or better. If he does that, I'll feel good about the way he finished the year.

[AgentOrange]

Bergesen has allowed only 4 runs in his last 23 innings (with KC and CLE accounting for 16 of those innings). And his ERA is STILL 5.84. So yeah, a few more starts before I'm 'counting on him'.

I am just talking about turning the corner. I think he is starting to turn the corner. It is unreasonable to expect him to pitch this well moving forward. But I would like to see him pitch to a 4.5 or under from here on out.

[Mackus]

I think for Bergesen its just a matter of how often can he be on top of his game. Last year he was for a very long stretch and pitched exceptionally well. This year he's had only a few starts where he's had everything working.

I think the biggest red flag for Bergesen is that he really needs to be near his best to be effective at all. He has a very narrow margin for error. Its tough to always be that close to perfect. I'm not sure that type of performance is sustainable over a full year with the stuff he has. If his command remains really good and his ball sinks like it was last year and in his last few starts, he can have success. If those things don't happen with a high level of consistency, he's going to have trouble.

The only way to see how consistently he can pitch like that is to let him keep pitching.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think for Bergesen its just a matter of how often can he be on top of his game. Last year he was for a very long stretch and pitched exceptionally well. This year he's had only a few starts where he's had everything working.

I think the biggest red flag for Bergesen is that he really needs to be near his best to be effective at all. He has a very narrow margin for error. Its tough to always be that close to perfect. I'm not sure that type of performance is sustainable over a full year with the stuff he has. If his command remains really good and his ball sinks like it was last year and in his last few starts, he can have success. If those things don't happen with a high level of consistency, he's going to have trouble.

The only way to see how consistently he can pitch like that is to let him keep pitching.

Not even necessarily at the top of his game, but able to execute his strengths which are proven to work. IMO the questions about Bergy were always whether or not his stuff would translate well to ML hitters. Well, we found out that it does translate very well, but he will have to learn to be more consistent in his ability to execute his game....

But I agree with the bolded, but I disgaree with the rest. He doesn't have to be perfect to be successful. Veteran pitchers learn to execute their game, will he learn to do that? We will see, but that is IMO what his success hinges on....

[LookinUp]

I think the biggest red flag for Bergesen is that he really needs to be near his best to be effective at all. He has a very narrow margin for error. Its tough to always be that close to perfect. I'm not sure that type of performance is sustainable over a full year with the stuff he has.

I read this and I think of Mark Buerhle and Jamie Moyer.

Every year there's another guy who comes up with an 89 mph fastball and is light's out for a bit. People write him off because his stuff isn't good enough and others argue to the hilt that he can be the next Moyer. They're never the next Moyer.

But Bergesen is different because he's shown that he knows how to pitch and he has better stuff than people give him credit for. He's not a guy with nothing stuff. His 92 mph 4s fastball is average...better than the guys above. His sinker is easily a plus pitch, and plus plus on his on days...just like their change. His slider is plus to average, depending on how well he'll pitch. It's also something that he hasn't mastered yet...but I'm betting he will.

When Bergy's not on, he becomes susceptible to more HRs. This is true, but it's true of everyone from Beckett to Moyer. Only the ridiculously elite guys can lose their location and movement and not get punished for it.

Bergy also has already established a track record of being on most of the time (if you consider his MiL service). Considering the shin and shoulder, it's hard to hold this year against him.

Bergesen's not Rick Zagone. When he's on, he's a mid 2's to mid 3 ERA type of pitcher. When he's off, he's probably a high 4's ERA type of pitcher. To me, that profiles as a nice innings eating #3 guy.

I'd definitely take Bergy over Hernandez, and I think Tillman and Arrieta need to get a lot better to exceed what Bergy is and will be.

[Mackus]

When Bergy's not on, he becomes susceptible to more HRs. This is true, but it's true of everyone from Beckett to Moyer. Only the ridiculously elite guys can lose their location and movement and not get punished for it.

Bergy also has already established a track record of being on most of the time (if you consider his MiL service). Considering the shin and shoulder, it's hard to hold this year against him.

Bergesen's not Rick Zagone. When he's on, he's a mid 2's to mid 3 ERA type of pitcher. When he's off, he's probably a high 4's ERA type of pitcher. To me, that profiles as a nice innings eating #3 guy.

I'd definitely take Bergy over Hernandez, and I think Tillman and Arrieta need to get a lot better to exceed what Bergy is and will be.

I think you're overstating both how often Bergesen is "on his game" and how "well" he pitches when he's off his game.

He's a groundball guy, which means he allows a lot of baserunners, so when he does get hit by the HR bug, they are often 2 or 3 run homers.

I definitely would take Arrieta and Tillman's future chances over Bergesen, just for the upside if nothing more. I do think Bergy can be useful, but he doesn't have the command to be as good as a guy like Buerhle, IMO. Maybe he can develop that and become a solid middle rotation guy. I hope he can, it'll just be a matter of how consistently he can have his good command and good sink. I don't think there is much realistic hope of him being a real top of rotation, 1-2 type starter.

[Frobby]

I think you're overstating both how often Bergesen is "on his game" and how "well" he pitches when he's off his game.

Well, he did have a stretch of 12 games last year where he had a 2.46 ERA and averaged 7 innings per start. That's pretty often if you ask me.

I think the rest of this year is pretty important for Bergy. Like I said, he has 9 starts left. Where he falls in the presumptive 2011 pecking order depends on whether he's consistently effective over those 9 games. If he is, then I think we assume his struggles in the first half were the results of his injuries and Bergy is guaranteed a spot in next year's rotation.

[clapdiddy]

I agree with the posters here that Bergy should just get the rest of this season to show what he's got. When he's on his game, strike one seems to just come every plate appearance. I guess you could say that about a lot of guys, though!

I know some have pointed out that he tends to have a lot of good defense behind him, making good plays on hard-hit balls. I'm wondering if his ability to throw strikes (again, when he's on) helps out in that regard? I think it keeps the defense on it's toes knowing that he is in the strike zone so much and that he "pitches to contact".

[QBsILLEST1]

I read this and I think of Mark Buerhle and Jamie Moyer.

Every year there's another guy who comes up with an 89 mph fastball and is light's out for a bit. People write him off because his stuff isn't good enough and others argue to the hilt that he can be the next Moyer. They're never the next Moyer.

But Bergesen is different because he's shown that he knows how to pitch and he has better stuff than people give him credit for. He's not a guy with nothing stuff. His 92 mph 4s fastball is average...better than the guys above. His sinker is easily a plus pitch, and plus plus on his on days...just like their change. His slider is plus to average, depending on how well he'll pitch. It's also something that he hasn't mastered yet...but I'm betting he will.

When Bergy's not on, he becomes susceptible to more HRs. This is true, but it's true of everyone from Beckett to Moyer. Only the ridiculously elite guys can lose their location and movement and not get punished for it.

Bergy also has already established a track record of being on most of the time (if you consider his MiL service). Considering the shin and shoulder, it's hard to hold this year against him.

Bergesen's not Rick Zagone. When he's on, he's a mid 2's to mid 3 ERA type of pitcher. When he's off, he's probably a high 4's ERA type of pitcher. To me, that profiles as a nice innings eating #3 guy.

I'd definitely take Bergy over Hernandez, and I think Tillman and Arrieta need to get a lot better to exceed what Bergy is and will be.

I wouldn't say his sinker is easily a plus or plus-plus pitch. I'd say his sinker is pretty average. His slider is the pitch that at times flashes plus. The end result though is still IMO that of a mid rotation guy. He changes speeds, keeps the ball on the ground a lot, has good command and a slightly above average slider.

[Three Run Homer]

I don't think there is much realistic hope of him being a real top of rotation, 1-2 type starter.

How can you say there is no realistic hope of him being a top of the rotation starter, when he actually WAS a top of the rotation starter for most of last season?

TOR to me is about results, not about peripherals. If you're saying that he'll never have a K/IP ratio near one, then I agree with you. But if you're saying that he can't pitch 200 innings with an ERA below 3.5--which is a pretty good definition of a modern TOR starter--then you're just ignoring his performance from last year, or writing it off as a fluke.

[El Gordo]

What a gem tonite from Bergy...two hits, one run, goes the distance on 102 pitches.

It'd be awesome to see him finish the year with a string of great starts. He's certainly on his way.

It's baseball. You can't count on anything. This season should have taught you that much.

[NewMarketSean]

I think for Bergesen its just a matter of how often can he be on top of his game. Last year he was for a very long stretch and pitched exceptionally well. This year he's had only a few starts where he's had everything working.

I think the biggest red flag for Bergesen is that he really needs to be near his best to be effective at all. He has a very narrow margin for error. Its tough to always be that close to perfect. I'm not sure that type of performance is sustainable over a full year with the stuff he has. If his command remains really good and his ball sinks like it was last year and in his last few starts, he can have success. If those things don't happen with a high level of consistency, he's going to have trouble.

The only way to see how consistently he can pitch like that is to let him keep pitching.

He was near his best last night and had a 2 hitter, CG.

That is what you get when he is at his best. You're making it sound like he needs to be at his best just to have a 6 IP, 3 ER game.

I don't think Bergesen can be as dominant as he was last night all the time but I would like to see him mix in a start like last night's while still being a 4 ERA pitcher.

Everyone pretty much thought BB had pitched above his talent last year and many were saying he'd probably be a 4-4.5 ERA guy this year. But he was much worse than that for most of the season before finding his groove again.

So I guess what I am saying is that when he is near the top of his game, we'll get games like last night (OK it was the Indians), and hopefully he can remain good and pitch to a 4 ERA the rest of the time, and not wear a path back to Norfolk.

[Mackus]

How can you say there is no realistic hope of him being a top of the rotation starter, when he actually WAS a top of the rotation starter for most of last season?

Because I don't think he can remain that consistent over a full season. I think he could put together a 10-15 start stretch where he pitches in the low to mid 3's, but not a 30+ start stretch where he does that. He made 19 starts last year, and was great over his last 12 or so, but I just don't think he can do it that consistently over a full year. He simply doesn't have good enough stuff to get by when he's not throwing well, and very rarely does a guy throw close to his best over an entire season.

I think, at best, he's a 4.00-4.50 guy over a full season. He'll pitch well at times and get rocked at times. I'm not saying he'll never make it as a starter, I'm just saying I have no expectations of him ever being any better than a decent mid-rotation guy. I think any expectations of him being more than that are based more on hope and seeing what he can do over a small sample when he's at his best and not taking the entire scope of his production into account.