Matusz ROY Finish

[Old#5fan]

How is run support a factor? CC or Price have no control how many runs are scored for them. As far as complete games, King Felix has more than CC and Price combined. Shutouts, CC has none, and Felix and Price have one a piece.

It is a factor because if CC say has 21 wins and averages 5 runs a game and Price has 19 wins and averages 4.2 runs per game, I would give the edge to Price.

[ledzepp8]

It is a factor because if CC say has 21 wins and averages 5 runs a game and Price has 19 wins and averages 4.2 runs per game, I would give the edge to Price.

But none of that matter for Felix Hernandez who has 13 wins and averages 3.1 runs per game?

This is comical dude.

[ShaneDawg85]

I was hoping to not have to fight the urge to one star rate my own thread, but after the turn it has taken I couldn't resist.

[Flosman]

What if your run support is 0?

Well back in the olden days when I remember real men pitching, guys would pitch 300+ scoreless innings in this situation. This happened all the time because these greats would face each other. There were games that lasted weeks on in, those were the days...lol

[ShaneDawg85]

Almost thirty percent of the vote say he will finish outside of the top 5. I'm with Frobby on this one, in that I'm wondering from those who voted that direction who you believe actually merits finishing ahead of him. Throw out the Orioles record, because I've got a feeling that's what is playing into it, and identify five rookies more deserving based on performance than Matusz. Because I just don't see them.

[JohnD]

You guys are going to be shocked by the margin of victory in Hernandez's favor this year. Book it.

[ShaneDawg85]

You guys are going to be shocked by the margin of victory in Hernandez's favor this year. Book it.

I think it's a testament to the wising up of voters that they can see that win-loss record is not an efficient way of measuring how valuable a pitcher's season, and should not be held against them. It will never excuse Bartolo Colon winning in 2005 over Johan Santana, Roger Clemens over Mark Mulder and Mike Mussina in 2001, or Bob Welch over Clemens and Dave Stewart in 1990, but it's a start.

[BaltimoreTerp]

You guys are going to be shocked by the margin of victory in Hernandez's favor this year. Book it.

I would love to be shocked, by I think it will be close between Hernandez and Price with Sabathia a bit farther back.

[Frobby]

You guys are going to be shocked by the margin of victory in Hernandez's favor this year. Book it.

Both Buster Olney and Tim Kukjian predicted today that Hernandez will win it. Kukjian pointed out that no AL pitcher who led the league in ERA, IP and K's has ever not won the Cy Young, but of course, a 13 or 14-game winner has never won, either.

I think it will help his case a lot if he wins on Sunday. 14-12 is easier to stomach than 13-13 from a psychological standpoint.

[Old#5fan]

Both Buster Olney and Tim Kukjian predicted today that Hernandez will win it. Kukjian pointed out that no AL pitcher who led the league in ERA, IP and K's has ever not won the Cy Young, but of course, a 13 or 14-game winner has never won, either.

I think it will help his case a lot if he wins on Sunday. 14-12 is easier to stomach than 13-13 from a psychological standpoint.

I guess I really have nothing against him winning it, but I agree it would be easier to stomach if he was 14-12.

[ShaneDawg85]

I guess I really have nothing against him winning it, but I agree it would be easier to stomach if he was 14-12.

I don't. Fretting over him having won more win is as stupid as fretting over whether somebody has 20 wins instead of 19. To think it means anything less and in anyway takes away from the season they've had, or that it makes a far lesser pitcher better because they had one more win than someone else, is downright stupid.

[Old#5fan]

I don't. Fretting over him having won more win is as stupid as fretting over whether somebody has 20 wins instead of 19. To think it means anything less and in anyway takes away from the season they've had, or that it makes a far lesser pitcher better because they had one more win than someone else, is downright stupid.

No, what is downright "stupid" as you are so eloquently putting it, would be ignoring the historical fact (as well as tradition concerning the award) that nobody has ever won it with so few wins. Now that would indeed be "stupid."

[BaltimoreTerp]

Both Buster Olney and Tim Kukjian predicted today that Hernandez will win it. Kukjian pointed out that no AL pitcher who led the league in ERA, IP and K's has ever not won the Cy Young, but of course, a 13 or 14-game winner has never won, either.

I think it will help his case a lot if he wins on Sunday. 14-12 is easier to stomach than 13-13 from a psychological standpoint.

I want to see him pitch a nine-inning perfect game, then lose 1-0 in the tenth when his teammates commit three errors to allow a run to score.

Just so that we can get a few old writers off the voter lists when their heads explode.

[VTmook213]

I'm not sure how this thread got so derailed, but I just read this and thought it was interesting.

To those who voted that Matusz won't finish in the top 5 -- name the top 5. I don't see any way Matusz finishes lower than 5th.

This is what Keith Law said about it. He doesn't have a vote for the AL ROY this year, but rather has a vote for NL MOY.

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Brian Matusz

2. Danny Valencia

3. Austin Jackson

There just is no great candidate in the AL this year, but Matusz's year came while pitching in front of a bad defense versus the four strong offenses in the AL East, and his strong finish pumped up his values to the point where he's a reasonable choice. (As far as I can tell, he's the top AL rookie in Baseball-Reference's WAR, and I believe he's third in FanGraph's version, 0.1 behind Valencia, which in practical terms is no difference.) Jackson's argument is one strictly of bulk, as he played every day from Opening Day and led off enough to get over 670 PA, but what he did in those PAs wasn't so impressive that we can gift him the award just on the raw totals. (Fun with arbitrary endpoints: Jackson went 5-for-5 on April 30, then hit .282/.333/.384 from May 1 through Saturday.)

Combine Matusz's performance, the caliber of his competition, and the fact that he holds more promise than those other candidates, and he is my choice for AL Rookie of the Year. As for the most likely winner, Neftali Feliz, I don't worship at the altar of the save stat, and while Feliz was excellent, he threw just 69 innings this year; I love his upside if the Rangers put him back in the rotation, but that's just not enough value to put him ahead of a quality starter or two everyday players.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=5647358

[Frobby]

This is what Keith Law said about it. He doesn't have a vote for the AL ROY this year, but rather has a vote for NL MOY.

Quote

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Brian Matusz

2. Danny Valencia

3. Austin Jackson

I hadn't thought about Valencia. He had only 85 games played, but I guess theoretically you could have a top 5 of Davis, Feliz, Jackson, Boesch and Valencia (in whatever order). I still think Matusz would top him and Boesch, but we'll see.